33904 HIGHWAY 63 E, MARKED TREE, AR 72365 · CCN 045391 · chain JEJ ASSETS LP
Composite
58.3 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
112
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 58.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.99
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.12
0.15
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.76
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.08
3.46
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
86.8
2.99
0.12
0.93
1.94
2.76
0.0%
2025Q3
92
86.6
2.97
0.12
0.89
1.96
2.73
0.0%
2025Q2
91
93.2
2.97
0.16
0.79
2.02
2.78
0.0%
2025Q1
90
95.6
2.75
0.12
0.83
1.79
2.72
0.0%
2024Q4
92
94.5
3.07
0.04
0.89
2.14
2.82
0.0%
2024Q3
92
92.3
3.20
0.06
0.92
2.23
2.95
0.0%
2024Q2
91
94.1
3.07
0.04
0.84
2.19
2.71
0.0%
2024Q1
91
95.8
3.09
0.05
0.88
2.16
2.54
0.0%
2023Q4
92
96.4
3.15
0.04
0.87
2.23
2.76
0.0%
2023Q3
92
96.5
3.10
0.05
0.88
2.18
2.74
0.0%
2023Q2
91
98.0
3.39
0.04
0.86
2.49
2.93
0.0%
2023Q1
90
100.7
3.11
0.07
0.78
2.25
2.67
0.0%
2022Q4
92
99.3
3.27
0.09
0.79
2.39
2.89
2.4%
2022Q3
92
97.0
3.81
0.09
0.90
2.82
3.42
6.6%
2022Q2
91
96.4
3.51
0.12
0.87
2.52
3.18
9.5%
2022Q1
90
93.8
3.37
0.11
0.81
2.45
3.06
4.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
—
2024-08-29
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2024-09-16
2024-08-29
Health
F0687
Provide appropriate foot care.
E
2024-09-16
2024-08-29
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-09-16
2024-08-29
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-09-16
2023-08-18
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2023-09-15
2023-08-18
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-09-15
2023-08-18
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2023-09-15
2023-08-18
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-09-15
2023-08-18
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2023-09-15
2023-08-18
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
E
2023-09-15
2023-08-18
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2023-09-15
2023-08-18
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
J
2023-09-15
2023-08-18
Health
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
E
2023-09-15
2023-08-18
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2023-09-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
14
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
4P2T1 OPS HOLDING LP
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
TEAM STAFFING
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
TEAM STAFFING
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
POINSETT COUNTY ESTATES
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
33%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
POINSETT COUNTY ESTATES
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
33%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ALEXARK1 LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
BRAZILE, ROBERT
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
JEJ ASSETS LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-08-15
current
pecos_ownership
PONTHIE, JOHN
GENERAL PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PONTHIE, SHARLOT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-06-14
current
pecos_ownership
JOHN PONTHIE
GENERAL PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT BRAZILE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2022-08-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHARLOT PONTHIE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-06-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
POINSETT COUNTY ESTATES
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
33%
2022-08-15
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
7
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$5,564,059
—
—
$267,655
$4,132,528
8
propco
2023-12-31
$5,562,557
—
—
$128,087
$4,234,383
8
propco
2022-12-31
$497,881
—
—
$48,843
$45,385
7
propco
2022-08-14
$92,803
—
—
—
$19,702
1
—
2022-06-30
$714,243
—
—
—
$151,634
1
—
2021-06-30
$289,067
—
—
—
$47,839
1
—
2020-12-31
$633,158
—
—
—
$104,784
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 05111
acs median gross
0
$609
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05111
fmr
0
$681
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05111
acs median gross
1
$347
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05111
fmr
1
$685
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05111
acs median gross
2
$646
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05111
fmr
2
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05111
acs median gross
3
$922
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05111
fmr
3
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05111
acs median gross
4
$718
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05111
fmr
4
$1,165
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05111
acs median gross
$619
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05111
acs recent mover gross
$758
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72365
acs median gross
1
$469
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72365
acs median gross
2
$571
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72365
acs median gross
3
$598
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72365
acs median gross
$563
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72365
acs recent mover gross
$494
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 72365
payment standard 110
0
$748
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72365
payment standard 90
0
$612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72365
safmr
0
$680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72365
payment standard 110
1
$759
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72365
payment standard 90
1
$621
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72365
safmr
1
$690
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72365
payment standard 110
2
$968
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72365
payment standard 90
2
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72365
safmr
2
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72365
payment standard 110
3
$1,276
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72365
payment standard 90
3
$1,044
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72365
safmr
3
$1,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72365
payment standard 110
4
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72365
payment standard 90
4
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72365
safmr
4
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.