Reads as: riskier than 58.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
WILLIAMS RYAN
26 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
ID median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.34
3.34
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.36
0.51
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.13
3.05
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.42
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
96.8
3.34
0.36
1.01
1.96
3.13
10.3%
2025Q3
92
98.3
3.26
0.32
1.11
1.82
3.08
6.4%
2025Q2
91
99.9
3.34
0.33
1.08
1.92
3.13
5.7%
2025Q1
90
101.1
3.02
0.36
0.95
1.71
2.77
5.2%
2024Q4
92
97.2
2.87
0.29
0.96
1.62
2.70
6.9%
2024Q3
92
97.3
2.90
0.33
0.97
1.60
2.52
3.0%
2024Q2
91
90.4
2.92
0.38
0.85
1.70
2.54
3.8%
2024Q1
91
89.8
2.89
0.42
0.82
1.64
2.51
1.4%
2023Q4
92
88.0
2.98
0.50
0.77
1.72
2.60
6.7%
2023Q3
92
87.1
2.93
0.32
0.78
1.83
2.55
3.8%
2023Q2
91
85.5
2.96
0.35
0.91
1.71
2.48
0.0%
2023Q1
90
87.0
3.19
0.35
0.91
1.93
2.81
21.8%
2022Q4
92
79.1
3.51
0.33
0.92
2.26
3.04
32.3%
2022Q3
92
73.6
3.39
0.36
0.80
2.23
2.99
24.9%
2022Q2
91
71.6
3.90
0.55
1.00
2.35
3.33
14.9%
2022Q1
90
71.5
4.12
0.65
0.97
2.50
3.79
29.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2026-06-16
2026-05-14
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2026-06-16
2026-05-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-06-16
2026-05-14
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2026-06-16
2025-12-30
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2026-02-03
2025-12-30
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
D
2026-02-03
2025-12-30
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-02-03
2025-03-07
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-04-02
2025-03-07
Health · complaint
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2025-04-02
2025-03-07
Health · complaint
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2025-04-02
2025-03-07
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-04-02
2025-03-07
Health · complaint
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2025-04-02
2025-03-07
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2025-04-02
2025-03-07
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-04-02
2025-03-07
Health · complaint
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-04-02
2025-03-07
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-04-02
2025-03-07
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-04-02
2024-02-09
Health · complaint
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2024-03-18
2024-02-09
Health · complaint
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
G
2024-03-18
2024-02-09
Health · complaint
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-03-18
2024-02-09
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-03-18
2024-02-09
Health · complaint
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
E
2024-03-18
2024-02-09
Health · complaint
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2024-03-18
2024-02-09
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-03-18
2024-02-09
Health · complaint
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2024-03-18
2024-02-09
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-03-18
2024-02-09
Health · complaint
F0851
Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data.
F
2024-03-18
2024-02-09
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-03-18
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
23
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BAIR, BRADEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAIR, BRADEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-23
current
pecos_ownership
CASCADIA HC GROUP LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
CASCADIA HOLDCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
CASCADIA IDAHO OPERATIONS LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
CASCADIA SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
CASCADIA SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-12
current
pecos_ownership
HAMMOND, OWEN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAFORTE, STEPHEN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
NELSON, TIMOTHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
TIMBERLINE CTRE TENANT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-05
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE OAK HEALTHCARE FINANCE LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2022-08-11
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, RYAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-12-05
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, RYAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-12
current
pecos_ownership
OWEN HAMMOND
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2016-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN LAFORTE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2025-06-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY NELSON
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2025-06-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRADEN BAIR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRADEN BAIR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CASCADIA HEALTHCARE LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RYAN WILLIAMS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RYAN WILLIAMS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-12-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$763,905
—
—
$11,433
$143,462
2
—
2023-12-31
$590,621
—
—
$11,676
$109,039
2
—
2022-12-31
$838,521
—
—
$12,612
$137,768
2
—
2021-12-31
$871,568
—
—
$13,026
$134,285
2
—
2020-12-31
$620,665
—
—
$10,035
$105,045
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 16001
acs median gross
0
$1,235
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16001
fmr
0
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16001
acs median gross
1
$1,277
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16001
fmr
1
$1,381
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16001
acs median gross
2
$1,487
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16001
fmr
2
$1,655
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16001
acs median gross
3
$1,899
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16001
fmr
3
$2,318
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16001
acs median gross
4
$2,264
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16001
fmr
4
$2,772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16001
acs median gross
5
$2,624
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16001
acs median gross
$1,577
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16001
acs recent mover gross
$1,748
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83712
acs median gross
0
$1,442
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83712
acs median gross
1
$1,329
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83712
acs median gross
2
$1,654
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83712
acs median gross
3
$1,988
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83712
acs median gross
$1,453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83712
acs recent mover gross
$1,453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 83712
payment standard 110
0
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83712
payment standard 90
0
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83712
safmr
0
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83712
payment standard 110
1
$1,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83712
payment standard 90
1
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83712
safmr
1
$1,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83712
payment standard 110
2
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83712
payment standard 90
2
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83712
safmr
2
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83712
payment standard 110
3
$2,552
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83712
payment standard 90
3
$2,088
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83712
safmr
3
$2,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83712
payment standard 110
4
$3,058
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83712
payment standard 90
4
$2,502
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83712
safmr
4
$2,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.