1201 Pleasant Valley Road, Owensboro, KY 42303 · CCN 185396
Composite
10.0 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
30
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 10.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
KY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
6.56
3.11
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
2.06
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
6.78
3.01
3.11
—
Weekday total
6.47
3.16
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
13.3
6.56
2.06
1.50
3.00
6.78
0.0%
2025Q3
92
12.3
7.10
2.08
1.75
3.28
6.99
0.0%
2025Q2
91
13.2
6.76
2.28
1.37
3.12
6.74
0.0%
2025Q1
90
13.6
6.27
2.44
1.06
2.77
6.31
0.0%
2024Q4
92
16.2
5.66
2.13
1.01
2.53
5.77
0.0%
2024Q3
92
13.3
6.58
2.33
1.50
2.76
6.38
0.0%
2024Q2
91
12.2
8.05
3.02
1.85
3.18
7.24
0.0%
2024Q1
91
12.6
7.15
2.00
2.00
3.15
7.30
0.0%
2023Q4
92
11.5
7.28
1.89
2.20
3.19
7.22
0.0%
2023Q3
92
16.8
6.60
1.83
1.98
2.79
6.95
5.6%
2023Q2
91
15.9
0.54
0.23
0.14
0.17
0.28
0.0%
2023Q1
90
15.2
7.76
2.94
1.75
3.07
7.40
0.0%
2022Q4
92
12.0
8.05
3.14
1.61
3.31
7.84
0.0%
2022Q3
92
14.6
7.21
3.19
1.40
2.63
7.05
0.0%
2022Q1
90
16.3
7.43
3.46
1.33
2.64
7.28
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
2
D × 1E × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2023-10-05
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-10-31
2022-06-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-07-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
52
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BEGLEY, ERNEST
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2008-01-07
current
pecos_ownership
BRAKE, CANDACE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHAPMAN, LAURA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
CROWDER, JEREMY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-04-24
current
pecos_ownership
CROWDER, JEREMY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-11
current
pecos_ownership
DUFRAYNE, FRANCIS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
FERRELL, LK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-11
current
pecos_ownership
FERRELL, LK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
GADDIS, CHRISTOPHER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-11-07
current
pecos_ownership
GARDNER, TERESA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
HARIA, DHIREN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-11-26
current
pecos_ownership
HARRIS, SUZANNE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-03-07
current
pecos_ownership
HETMAN, NICK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
LILLY, TOM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-02-23
current
pecos_ownership
MARSH, MARK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-07
current
pecos_ownership
MCBRIDE, ANTHONY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MILLS, CHARLES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOORE, ANDREA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-09-27
current
pecos_ownership
OSBORNE, PATRICIA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
RANALLO, RUSSELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1999-10-25
current
pecos_ownership
RINEY, PHIL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROBERTS, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROBERTS, GAVIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHERM, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEELE, BETH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-01-10
current
pecos_ownership
SUTER, MIA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2000-08-14
current
pecos_ownership
ANDREA MOORE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-09-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY MCBRIDE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BETH STEELE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-01-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CANDACE BRAKE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES MILLS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER GADDIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-11-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID ROBERTS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DHIREN HARIA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-11-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERNEST BEGLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-01-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FRANCIS DUFRAYNE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GAVIN ROBERTS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEREMY CROWDER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEREMY CROWDER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-04-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA CHAPMAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LK FERRELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LK FERRELL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK MARSH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-06-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MIA SUTER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2000-08-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL SCHERM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICK HETMAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA OSBORNE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHIL RINEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RUSSELL RANALLO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1999-10-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUZANNE HARRIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERESA GARDNER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOM LILLY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-02-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 21059
acs median gross
0
$905
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21059
fmr
0
$840
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21059
acs median gross
1
$665
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21059
fmr
1
$846
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21059
acs median gross
2
$931
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21059
fmr
2
$1,110
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21059
acs median gross
3
$1,117
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21059
fmr
3
$1,466
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21059
acs median gross
4
$1,113
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21059
fmr
4
$1,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21059
acs median gross
5
$867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21059
acs median gross
$918
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21059
acs recent mover gross
$1,018
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42303
acs median gross
0
$960
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42303
acs median gross
1
$668
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42303
acs median gross
2
$984
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42303
acs median gross
3
$1,119
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42303
acs median gross
4
$997
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42303
acs median gross
$979
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42303
acs recent mover gross
$1,053
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 42303
payment standard 110
0
$979
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42303
payment standard 90
0
$801
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42303
safmr
0
$890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42303
payment standard 110
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42303
payment standard 90
1
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42303
safmr
1
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42303
payment standard 110
2
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42303
payment standard 90
2
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42303
safmr
2
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42303
payment standard 110
3
$1,716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42303
payment standard 90
3
$1,404
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42303
safmr
3
$1,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42303
payment standard 110
4
$1,716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42303
payment standard 90
4
$1,404
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42303
safmr
4
$1,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.