Reads as: riskier than 32.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
10
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.5 vs natl
JOURNEY CZ MANAGEMENT LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.2 vs natl
MCGUINNESS BERNARD
22 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
WASHINGTON STATE INVESTMENT BOARD
77 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
GEARY PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
21 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
BEVERLY ENTERPRISES PENNSYLVANIA INC
17 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
BEVERLY HEALTH AND REHABILITIATION SERVICES INC
18 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
PEARL SENIOR CARE LLC
18 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
DRUMM MERGER CO SUB LLC
19 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
DRUMM MERGER CO
19 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
DRUMM INTERMEDIARY SUB CO LLC
18 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
KY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.78
3.11
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.23
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.69
3.01
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.81
3.16
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
87.5
2.78
0.23
0.71
1.84
2.69
0.0%
2025Q3
92
88.9
2.63
0.24
0.63
1.76
2.49
0.0%
2025Q2
91
85.9
2.72
0.26
0.70
1.76
2.53
0.0%
2025Q1
90
83.9
2.68
0.23
0.67
1.78
2.67
0.0%
2024Q4
92
83.2
2.76
0.27
0.63
1.86
2.56
0.0%
2024Q3
92
83.5
0.93
0.10
0.19
0.64
0.80
0.0%
2024Q2
91
86.4
2.74
0.23
0.63
1.88
2.59
0.0%
2024Q1
91
85.1
2.54
0.23
0.72
1.60
2.36
0.0%
2023Q4
92
85.1
2.47
0.25
0.64
1.58
2.30
0.8%
2023Q3
92
84.2
2.48
0.20
0.65
1.63
2.36
0.0%
2023Q2
91
89.7
2.22
0.14
0.61
1.46
2.04
0.0%
2023Q1
90
87.6
2.38
0.20
0.74
1.43
2.18
0.0%
2022Q4
92
85.0
2.44
0.17
0.69
1.58
2.25
0.0%
2022Q3
92
82.1
2.55
0.25
0.66
1.63
2.20
0.0%
2022Q2
91
81.7
2.40
0.22
0.77
1.41
2.09
0.0%
2022Q1
90
81.8
2.35
0.28
0.77
1.31
2.04
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
G
2024-09-24
2024-08-22
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-09-24
2024-08-22
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2024-09-24
2024-08-22
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-09-24
2024-08-22
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
G
2024-09-24
2024-08-22
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2024-09-24
2024-08-22
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2024-09-24
2024-08-22
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-09-24
2024-08-22
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
G
2024-09-24
2024-08-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-09-24
2019-07-12
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2019-08-21
2019-07-12
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2019-08-20
2019-07-12
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2019-08-20
2019-07-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2019-08-21
2019-07-12
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
E
2019-08-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
34
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
JOURNEY CZ KY HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEVERLY ENTERPRISES - PENNSYLVANIA, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEVERLY ENTERPRISES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEVERLY HEALTH AND REHABILITIATION SERVICES, INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
DRUMM INTERMEDIARY SUB CO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
DRUMM MERGER CO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
DRUMM MERGER CO SUB LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
FILLMORE STRATEGIC INVESTORS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
GEARY PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
GPH VANCEBURG LLC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
GPH VANCEBURG LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
GPH VANCEBURG LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-08-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
JOURNEY CZ MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOURNEY CZ OF KY LLC
LIMITED PARTNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
MARSHALL, WILLIAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-29
current
pecos_ownership
MARSHALL, WILLIAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCGUINNESS, BERNARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
PEARL SENIOR CARE, LLC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHIELDS, KARI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-29
current
pecos_ownership
WASHINGTON STATE INVESTMENT BOARD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
3 BEES HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AJOJ HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHASAM HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BEES FAMILY IRREVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
32%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BLUE OCEAN TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
32%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHASAM FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
32%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BERNARD MCGUINNESS
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GPH VANCEBURG LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2019-11-01
ended 2019-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
GPH VANCEBURG LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
GPH VANCEBURG LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
GPH VANCEBURG LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
KARI SHIELDS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM MARSHALL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM MARSHALL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
7
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,100,919
—
—
$251,195
$1,746,710
18
—
2024-07-31
$594,809
—
—
$415,269
—
3
propco
2023-12-31
$990,241
—
—
$694,012
—
3
propco
2022-12-31
$759,335
—
—
$475,997
—
3
propco
2021-12-31
$823,507
—
—
$554,595
—
3
propco
2020-12-31
$581,745
—
—
$581,745
—
3
propco
2019-12-31
$93,462
—
—
$93,462
—
3
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
29
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 21135
fmr
0
$619
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21135
acs median gross
1
$299
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21135
fmr
1
$660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21135
acs median gross
2
$721
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21135
fmr
2
$866
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21135
acs median gross
3
$887
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21135
fmr
3
$1,136
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21135
fmr
4
$1,209
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21135
acs median gross
$751
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 41179
acs median gross
1
$299
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 41179
acs median gross
2
$557
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 41179
acs median gross
3
$879
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 41179
acs median gross
$557
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 41179
acs recent mover gross
$930
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 41179
payment standard 110
0
$836
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41179
payment standard 90
0
$684
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41179
safmr
0
$760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41179
payment standard 110
1
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41179
payment standard 90
1
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41179
safmr
1
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41179
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41179
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41179
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41179
payment standard 110
3
$1,408
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41179
payment standard 90
3
$1,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41179
safmr
3
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41179
payment standard 110
4
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41179
payment standard 90
4
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41179
safmr
4
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.