Reads as: riskier than 57.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.6 vs natl
CARVER DILLION
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.6 vs natl
LUSTBADER JONATHAN
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.5 vs natl
GOTTESMAN DANIEL
26 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
GOTTESMAN DANIEL
24 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
KY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.70
3.11
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.16
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.70
3.01
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.70
3.16
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
100.1
2.70
0.16
0.89
1.65
2.70
0.0%
2025Q3
92
97.4
2.74
0.19
0.84
1.71
2.81
0.0%
2025Q2
91
92.5
2.69
0.22
0.82
1.65
2.67
0.0%
2025Q1
90
85.9
2.80
0.24
0.88
1.69
2.75
0.0%
2024Q4
92
84.1
2.89
0.16
1.02
1.71
2.76
0.0%
2024Q3
92
84.5
2.95
0.18
1.00
1.77
2.93
0.0%
2024Q2
91
89.8
2.97
0.24
0.99
1.74
2.95
7.4%
2024Q1
91
93.1
3.05
0.23
0.99
1.82
3.06
9.0%
2023Q4
92
92.2
3.13
0.25
1.00
1.88
3.18
9.2%
2023Q3
92
93.2
3.16
0.19
1.04
1.93
3.19
16.6%
2023Q2
91
92.8
3.18
0.24
1.00
1.95
3.12
12.5%
2023Q1
90
88.6
2.97
0.27
0.94
1.76
2.98
6.6%
2022Q4
92
86.2
3.27
0.28
1.05
1.94
3.35
38.7%
2022Q3
92
92.2
3.27
0.25
1.07
1.95
3.42
36.0%
2022Q2
91
96.0
1.98
0.18
0.51
1.30
2.42
0.0%
2022Q1
90
91.5
1.89
0.16
0.55
1.18
2.36
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
22
D × 16E × 3F × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-10-25
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2024-12-31
2024-10-25
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-12-31
2024-10-25
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-12-31
2024-10-25
Health
F0847
Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse.
D
2024-12-31
2024-10-25
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-12-31
2024-10-25
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
F
2024-12-31
2024-10-25
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
F
2024-12-31
2019-06-28
Health
F0638
Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.
D
2019-08-11
2019-06-28
Health
F0640
Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment.
D
2019-08-11
2019-06-28
Health
F0642
Ensure a qualified health professional conducts resident assessments.
D
2019-08-11
2019-06-28
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2019-08-11
2019-06-28
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2019-08-11
2019-06-28
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2019-08-11
2019-06-28
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2019-08-11
2019-06-28
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2019-08-11
2019-06-28
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2019-08-11
2019-06-28
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2019-08-11
2019-06-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2019-08-11
2019-06-28
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-08-11
2018-04-26
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2018-06-19
2018-04-26
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2018-06-19
2018-04-26
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2018-06-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
20
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
TKY 2 SNF OPERATIONS HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
BUTLER, LEON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARVER, DILLION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOTTESMAN, DANIEL
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
IDELS, SHIMON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
LANSILH IRREVOCABLE TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
LUSTBADER, JONATHAN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHWARTZ, STEVEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
WATHAN, SHERRIE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
LION 26 HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
47%
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SABRINA 1818 HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
47%
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAESSY IRREVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
45%
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TATIRIQ IRREVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
45%
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL GOTTESMAN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DILLION CARVER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONATHAN LUSTBADER
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEON BUTLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHERRIE WATHAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHIMON IDELS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN SCHWARTZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-10-31
$588,303
—
$588,303
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$696,614
—
$696,614
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$359,949
—
$359,949
—
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$261,405
—
$261,405
—
—
3
—
2020-12-31
$748,449
—
$748,449
—
—
6
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 21029
acs median gross
0
$788
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21029
fmr
0
$966
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21029
acs median gross
1
$734
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21029
fmr
1
$1,047
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21029
acs median gross
2
$1,004
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21029
fmr
2
$1,272
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21029
acs median gross
3
$1,180
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21029
fmr
3
$1,625
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21029
acs median gross
4
$1,718
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21029
fmr
4
$1,891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21029
acs median gross
5
$1,375
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21029
acs median gross
$987
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21029
acs recent mover gross
$1,185
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40047
acs median gross
1
$449
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40047
acs median gross
2
$894
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40047
acs median gross
3
$1,458
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40047
acs median gross
$1,027
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40047
acs recent mover gross
$1,364
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 40047
payment standard 110
0
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40047
payment standard 90
0
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40047
safmr
0
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40047
payment standard 110
1
$1,012
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40047
payment standard 90
1
$828
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40047
safmr
1
$920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40047
payment standard 110
2
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40047
payment standard 90
2
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40047
safmr
2
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40047
payment standard 110
3
$1,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40047
payment standard 90
3
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40047
safmr
3
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40047
payment standard 110
4
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40047
payment standard 90
4
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40047
safmr
4
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.