Composite
65.1 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 82.4 | 54.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 19.02 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 79.9 | 76.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 18.44 | in index |
| financial risk | 28.4 | 32.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 6.55 | in index |
| staffing risk | 29.8 | 29.9 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 5.73 | in index |
| chow risk | 37.2 | 35.7 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 4.29 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 54.4 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 46.4 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 32.9 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 76.6 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 29.9 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 77.2 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 57.2 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 29.2 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 38.6 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 76.6 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 76.6 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 29.9 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 29.9 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 6.91 | -1.18 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.51 | +0.54 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.61 | +0.36 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Occupancy | 0.51 | +1.00 | |
| Chain size (log) | 3.61 | -0.90 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.75 | +0.32 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 6.91 | -0.19 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | AR median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.66 | 3.38 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.34 | 0.15 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.37 | 3.09 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.77 | 3.46 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 50.0 | 3.66 | 0.34 | 0.60 | 2.72 | 3.37 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 55.7 | 3.45 | 0.41 | 0.48 | 2.56 | 3.15 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 62.3 | 3.18 | 0.35 | 0.51 | 2.31 | 2.98 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 61.9 | 3.15 | 0.38 | 0.49 | 2.29 | 2.94 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 66.6 | 2.91 | 0.30 | 0.47 | 2.13 | 2.72 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 66.6 | 3.26 | 0.23 | 0.47 | 2.56 | 2.87 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 64.6 | 3.25 | 0.29 | 0.40 | 2.56 | 2.86 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 64.2 | 3.10 | 0.37 | 0.42 | 2.31 | 2.56 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 67.5 | 2.89 | 0.25 | 0.51 | 2.13 | 2.41 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 67.8 | 2.90 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 2.09 | 2.50 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 66.3 | 2.89 | 0.30 | 0.47 | 2.11 | 2.50 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 64.9 | 2.93 | 0.34 | 0.49 | 2.10 | 2.51 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 62.6 | 2.89 | 0.37 | 0.42 | 2.09 | 2.27 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 59.1 | 3.03 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 2.24 | 2.54 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 52.8 | 3.72 | 0.52 | 0.37 | 2.83 | 3.17 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 55.4 | 3.26 | 0.51 | 0.32 | 2.43 | 2.84 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-12 | Fine | $8,021 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-02-14 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | E | 2025-02-14 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2025-02-14 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | E | 2025-02-14 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2025-02-14 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health · complaint | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | E | 2025-02-14 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-02-14 |
| 2025-01-16 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-02-14 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2024-02-07 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | E | 2024-02-07 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2024-02-07 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | J | 2024-02-07 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | J | 2024-02-07 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2024-02-07 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-02-07 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2024-02-07 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2024-02-07 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | J | 2024-02-07 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2024-02-07 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | J | 2024-02-07 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2024-02-07 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-02-07 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0865 | Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities. | E | 2024-02-07 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-02-07 |
| 2024-01-12 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | E | 2024-02-07 |
| 2022-10-14 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2022-11-13 |
| 2022-10-14 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | E | 2022-11-13 |
| 2022-10-14 | Health | F0569 | Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death. | E | 2022-11-13 |
| 2022-10-14 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2022-11-13 |
| 2022-10-14 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2022-11-13 |
| 2022-10-14 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2022-11-13 |
| 2022-10-14 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | E | 2022-11-13 |
| 2022-10-14 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-11-13 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4P2T1 OPS HOLDING LP | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2019-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| COLUMBIA ASSETS | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| COLUMBIA ASSETS | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| TEAM STAFFING | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| TEAM STAFFING | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| ALEXARK1 LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2022-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ASCHBRENNER, CRYSTAL | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2022-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DAVIS, MELORA | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2019-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JEJ ASSETS LP | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2022-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JEJ MANAGEMENT, LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2022-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PONTHIE, JOHN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2019-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PONTHIE, SHARLOT | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2022-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| COLUMBIA ASSETS | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| TEAM STAFFING | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| SHARLOT PONTHIE | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 50% | 2022-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOHN PONTHIE | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 40% | 2019-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CRYSTAL ASCHBRENNER | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2022-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MELORA DAVIS | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2019-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-09-01 | — | PRAIRIE SNF OPERATIONS LLC | PRAIRIE PROGRESSIVE ELDERCARE SERVICES INC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-02 | LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE | — | — | — | 50 | HOT SPRINGS SNF OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-02 | LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT MOUNTAIN HOME | — | — | — | 70 | MOUNTAIN HOME SNF OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT STAR CITY REHAB & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 95 | N DREW STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT OAKDALE REHAB & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 154 | CYNTHIA STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE SPRINGS OF WALDRON | — | — | — | 105 | WALDRON HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | THE SPRINGS OF FAIRFIELD BAY | — | — | — | 55 | INDIAN ROCK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-01-01 | THE SPRINGS OF RED OAK | — | — | — | 80 | RED OAK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-06-01 | Pine Bluff Transitional Care | — | — | — | 177 | PINE BLUFF NURSING, LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | The Blossoms at Berryville Rehab & Nursing Center | — | — | — | 114 | HAMMONS AVENUE OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT EUREKA SPRINGS REHAB & NURSING CEN | — | — | — | 100 | HUNTSVILLE ROAD OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT VAN BUREN REHAB AND NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 129 | MAIN STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC | — | — | — | 105 | PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 05117 | acs median gross | 0 | $343 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05117 | fmr | 0 | $630 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05117 | acs median gross | 1 | $604 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05117 | fmr | 1 | $671 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05117 | acs median gross | 2 | $402 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05117 | fmr | 2 | $880 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05117 | acs median gross | 3 | $856 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05117 | fmr | 3 | $1,150 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05117 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,240 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05117 | fmr | 4 | $1,240 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05117 | acs median gross | $625 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 05117 | acs recent mover gross | $425 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 72040 | acs median gross | 1 | $605 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72040 | acs median gross | 2 | $329 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72040 | acs median gross | 3 | $623 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72040 | acs median gross | $528 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 72040 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $693 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72040 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $567 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72040 | safmr | 0 | $630 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72040 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $737 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72040 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $603 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72040 | safmr | 1 | $670 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72040 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $968 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72040 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $792 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72040 | safmr | 2 | $880 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72040 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,265 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72040 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,035 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72040 | safmr | 3 | $1,150 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72040 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,364 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72040 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,116 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72040 | safmr | 4 | $1,240 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |