Reads as: riskier than 26.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.51
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.09
0.15
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.95
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.73
3.46
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
116.7
3.51
0.09
0.99
2.42
2.95
0.0%
2025Q3
92
118.4
3.67
0.05
1.05
2.57
2.98
0.0%
2025Q2
91
116.1
3.60
0.04
1.04
2.51
2.90
0.0%
2025Q1
90
115.3
3.96
0.02
1.11
2.82
3.54
0.0%
2024Q4
92
116.9
3.90
0.01
1.07
2.82
3.59
0.0%
2024Q3
92
115.6
3.71
0.05
1.05
2.61
3.44
0.0%
2024Q2
91
117.1
3.65
0.08
0.94
2.63
3.25
0.0%
2024Q1
91
119.1
3.80
0.12
0.97
2.72
3.53
0.0%
2023Q4
92
115.5
4.03
0.12
1.05
2.87
3.73
0.0%
2023Q3
92
109.3
4.06
0.11
1.07
2.87
3.75
0.0%
2023Q2
91
114.5
4.02
0.15
1.10
2.77
3.45
0.0%
2023Q1
90
113.1
3.85
0.18
1.02
2.65
3.41
0.0%
2022Q4
92
108.2
3.83
0.19
1.06
2.58
3.34
0.0%
2022Q3
92
98.0
3.91
0.16
1.06
2.69
3.35
0.0%
2022Q2
91
101.2
3.74
0.17
0.98
2.59
3.21
0.0%
2022Q1
90
96.9
3.67
0.11
1.04
2.53
3.17
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
17
C × 1D × 2E × 13F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-03-27
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-04-18
2025-03-27
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-04-18
2025-03-27
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-04-18
2024-01-05
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
E
2024-02-04
2024-01-05
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-02-04
2024-01-05
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2024-02-04
2024-01-05
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-02-04
2024-01-05
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-02-04
2024-01-05
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-02-04
2024-01-05
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2024-02-04
2023-09-21
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-10-21
2022-09-15
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2022-10-14
2022-09-15
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
E
2022-10-14
2022-09-15
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
E
2022-10-14
2022-09-15
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-10-14
2022-09-15
Health
F0850
Hire a qualified full-time social worker in a facility with more than 120 beds.
C
2022-09-15
2022-09-15
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2022-10-14
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
19
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ASHTON PLACE ESTATES LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
60%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ASHTON PLACE ESTATES LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
60%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
HURSH, PARALEA
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2011-01-20
current
pecos_ownership
SAMS, JERRY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2011-01-20
current
pecos_ownership
ASHTON PLACE ESTATES, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-12
current
pecos_ownership
BUSH, JENNIFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-10
current
pecos_ownership
BUSH, JENNIFER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
LE, THANH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-10
current
pecos_ownership
NURSING CONSULTANTS INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-07
current
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MORTON
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
70%
2011-01-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ASHTON PLACE ESTATES LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
60%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ASHTON PLACE ESTATES LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
60%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ASHTON PLACE ESTATES LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
60%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
DAVID NORSWORTHY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2011-01-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JERRY SAMS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2011-01-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PARALEA HURSH
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2011-01-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER BUSH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-10-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER BUSH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THANH LE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,291,575
—
—
—
$452,546
11
propco
2023-12-31
$2,154,052
—
—
—
$323,573
12
propco
2022-12-31
$1,871,749
—
—
—
$283,391
12
propco
2021-12-31
$1,951,321
—
—
—
$301,074
12
propco
2020-12-31
$1,769,486
—
—
—
$268,378
12
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 05131
fmr
0
$683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05131
acs median gross
1
$625
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05131
fmr
1
$714
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05131
acs median gross
2
$879
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05131
fmr
2
$937
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05131
acs median gross
3
$1,134
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05131
fmr
3
$1,266
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05131
acs median gross
4
$1,446
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05131
fmr
4
$1,532
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05131
acs median gross
5
$1,042
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05131
acs median gross
$886
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05131
acs recent mover gross
$1,043
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72923
acs median gross
2
$850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72923
acs median gross
3
$1,224
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72923
acs median gross
4
$1,305
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72923
acs median gross
$1,128
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 72923
payment standard 110
0
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72923
payment standard 90
0
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72923
safmr
0
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72923
payment standard 110
1
$902
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72923
payment standard 90
1
$738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72923
safmr
1
$820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72923
payment standard 110
2
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72923
payment standard 90
2
$963
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72923
safmr
2
$1,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72923
payment standard 110
3
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72923
payment standard 90
3
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72923
safmr
3
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72923
payment standard 110
4
$1,925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72923
payment standard 90
4
$1,575
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72923
safmr
4
$1,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.