Reads as: riskier than 86.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
PRICE TEDDY
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
CANTRELL JEFFREY LEE
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
ROGERS DAWN
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
BOLWAHNN SHEILA
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
KISATCHIE HEALTH LLC
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
SHELTON JAMES
22 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
LA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.13
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.08
0.10
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.77
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.27
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
53.9
3.13
0.08
0.89
2.16
2.77
0.0%
2025Q3
92
52.5
3.14
0.03
0.93
2.19
2.81
0.0%
2025Q2
91
54.7
3.13
0.00
0.89
2.24
2.88
0.0%
2025Q1
90
55.1
3.24
0.00
0.98
2.26
2.88
0.0%
2024Q4
92
54.5
3.14
0.01
0.92
2.22
2.85
0.0%
2024Q3
92
57.7
3.09
0.02
0.90
2.17
2.78
0.0%
2024Q2
91
58.2
2.69
0.00
0.81
1.88
2.40
0.0%
2024Q1
91
55.3
2.72
0.00
0.88
1.84
2.42
0.0%
2023Q4
92
51.3
2.91
0.00
0.95
1.96
2.57
0.0%
2023Q3
92
49.6
3.03
0.00
0.95
2.07
2.66
0.0%
2023Q2
91
49.2
3.17
0.00
1.05
2.11
2.65
0.0%
2023Q1
90
49.6
2.81
0.00
0.95
1.86
2.29
0.0%
2022Q4
92
49.1
2.80
0.00
0.93
1.87
2.22
0.0%
2022Q3
92
49.8
3.10
0.00
0.96
2.14
2.63
0.0%
2022Q2
91
51.8
2.86
0.00
0.89
1.97
2.41
0.0%
2022Q1
90
55.0
2.55
0.00
0.83
1.72
2.23
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
E
2025-11-01
2025-09-24
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-11-01
2025-09-24
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
E
2025-11-01
2025-09-24
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
E
2025-11-01
2025-09-24
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-11-01
2024-09-16
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
E
2024-10-18
2024-09-16
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-10-18
2024-09-16
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2024-10-18
2024-09-16
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
E
2024-10-18
2024-09-16
Health
F0691
Provide appropriate colostomy, urostomy, or ileostomy care/services for a resident who requires such services.
E
2024-10-18
2024-09-16
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2024-10-18
2024-09-16
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2024-10-18
2024-09-16
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
E
2024-10-18
2024-09-16
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2024-10-18
2024-09-16
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
E
2024-10-18
2024-09-16
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-10-18
2024-07-08
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2024-07-31
2024-07-08
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
J
2024-07-31
2023-11-21
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2023-12-20
2023-10-04
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2023-10-27
2023-10-04
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
E
2023-10-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
29
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PLANT MAN PROP
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
51%
2023-04-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
PLANT MAN PROP
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
51%
2024-04-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
KISATCHIE HEALTH, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
51%
2005-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
PRICO, INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
29%
2005-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
ZIMMERMAN, FREDA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
BOLWAHNN, SHEILA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CANTRELL, JEFFREY LEE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2005-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
COMBETTA, JEFFREY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-26
current
pecos_ownership
GREEN, TROY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-26
current
pecos_ownership
PRICE, TEDDY
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2005-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
PRICE, TEDDY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRICE, TEDDY
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
ROGERS, DAWN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2005-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
SHELTON, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2005-11-03
current
pecos_ownership
TEDDY PRICE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2005-11-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PLANT MAN PROP
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
51%
2022-04-01
ended 2023-03-31
hcris_a_8_1
PLANT MAN PROP
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
51%
2021-04-01
ended 2022-03-31
hcris_a_8_1
PLANT MAN PROP
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
51%
2020-04-01
ended 2021-03-31
hcris_a_8_1
FREDA ZIMMERMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2025-03-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TEDDY PRICE
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2025-03-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAWN ROGERS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2005-11-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES SHELTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2005-11-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY COMBETTA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY LEE CANTRELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHEILA BOLWAHNN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TEDDY PRICE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TROY GREEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-03-31
$653,432
$48,253
—
$414,307
$39,055
7
propco
2024-03-31
$577,292
$48,193
—
$353,293
$39,719
7
propco
2023-03-31
$590,029
$44,117
—
$381,562
$42,907
7
propco
2022-03-31
$600,779
$44,881
—
$390,458
$45,034
7
propco
2021-03-31
$519,021
$58,578
—
$309,293
$43,877
6
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
30
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 22041
acs median gross
0
$322
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22041
fmr
0
$601
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22041
acs median gross
1
$344
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22041
fmr
1
$698
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22041
acs median gross
2
$721
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22041
fmr
2
$834
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22041
acs median gross
3
$859
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22041
fmr
3
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22041
acs median gross
4
$1,096
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22041
fmr
4
$1,249
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22041
acs median gross
$721
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22041
acs recent mover gross
$962
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71378
acs median gross
1
$425
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71378
acs median gross
3
$630
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 71378
acs median gross
$628
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 71378
payment standard 110
0
$671
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71378
payment standard 90
0
$549
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71378
safmr
0
$610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71378
payment standard 110
1
$781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71378
payment standard 90
1
$639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71378
safmr
1
$710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71378
payment standard 110
2
$913
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71378
payment standard 90
2
$747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71378
safmr
2
$830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71378
payment standard 110
3
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71378
payment standard 90
3
$972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71378
safmr
3
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71378
payment standard 110
4
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71378
payment standard 90
4
$1,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 71378
safmr
4
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.