Reads as: riskier than 81.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
FISCHEL MAYER
45 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
KY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.12
3.11
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.25
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.06
3.01
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.13
3.16
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
79.0
3.12
0.25
0.72
2.15
3.06
1.1%
2025Q3
92
76.7
3.26
0.25
0.72
2.29
3.25
1.4%
2025Q2
91
78.6
3.42
0.28
0.72
2.42
3.29
0.0%
2025Q1
90
75.0
3.20
0.23
0.73
2.24
3.15
0.2%
2024Q4
92
77.8
3.22
0.23
0.70
2.30
3.17
0.6%
2024Q3
92
73.6
3.45
0.27
0.88
2.30
3.21
10.6%
2024Q2
91
75.5
3.12
0.25
0.81
2.07
2.86
10.7%
2024Q1
91
74.7
3.22
0.24
0.78
2.20
3.10
21.9%
2023Q4
92
78.5
2.91
0.14
0.84
1.93
2.63
25.1%
2023Q3
92
75.4
2.95
0.18
0.79
1.98
2.78
27.8%
2023Q2
91
77.7
2.63
0.14
0.77
1.72
2.56
45.6%
2023Q1
90
81.5
2.85
0.14
0.87
1.84
2.83
54.4%
2022Q4
92
80.2
3.05
0.19
0.98
1.87
2.72
61.4%
2022Q3
92
82.6
2.87
0.16
1.02
1.69
2.54
52.9%
2022Q2
91
82.5
2.44
0.20
0.78
1.46
1.98
45.2%
2022Q1
90
77.5
2.12
0.34
0.73
1.05
1.69
25.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-04-11
2026-03-19
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2026-04-11
2026-03-19
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2026-04-11
2026-03-19
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
D
2026-04-11
2024-12-13
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-01-05
2024-12-13
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-01-05
2023-12-13
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health · complaint
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health
F0575
Post a list of names, addresses, and telephone numbers of all pertinent State agencies and advocacy groups and a statement that the resident may file a complaint with the State Survey Agency.
F
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
F
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
E
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health
F0740
Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health · complaint
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-02-01
2023-12-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-03-12
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
DOVER MANOR OPERATIONS HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FISCHEL, MAYER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRINSPAN, ELI
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ALVARADO, RALPH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAKER, SHANNON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
DOVER MANOR REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DOVER MANOR REALTY LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FARKOVITS, JOSHUA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
HUNTINGTON BANK
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RAYBURN, NATASHA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-31
current
pecos_ownership
VALLEY STREAM OPERATOR I LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VALLEY STREAM OPERATOR I LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-23
current
pecos_ownership
ELI GRINSPAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENJAMIN LANDA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MAYER FISCHL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATASHA RAYBURN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RALPH ALVARADO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHANNON BAKER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,126,589
$631,876
—
—
—
2
—
2023-12-31
$982,987
$371,294
—
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$218,543
—
$218,543
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$127,377
—
—
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$92,416
—
—
—
—
2
—
2019-12-31
$40,415
—
$40,415
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 21209
acs median gross
0
$1,057
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21209
fmr
0
$883
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21209
acs median gross
1
$853
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21209
fmr
1
$1,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21209
acs median gross
2
$1,155
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21209
fmr
2
$1,272
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21209
acs median gross
3
$1,533
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21209
fmr
3
$1,743
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21209
acs median gross
4
$1,387
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21209
fmr
4
$1,940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21209
acs median gross
5
$1,671
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21209
acs median gross
$1,247
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21209
acs recent mover gross
$1,364
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40324
acs median gross
0
$1,091
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40324
acs median gross
1
$834
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40324
acs median gross
2
$1,157
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40324
acs median gross
3
$1,548
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40324
acs median gross
4
$1,443
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40324
acs median gross
5
$1,667
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40324
acs median gross
$1,246
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40324
acs recent mover gross
$1,363
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 40324
payment standard 110
0
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40324
payment standard 90
0
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40324
safmr
0
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40324
payment standard 110
1
$1,221
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40324
payment standard 90
1
$999
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40324
safmr
1
$1,110
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40324
payment standard 110
2
$1,441
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40324
payment standard 90
2
$1,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40324
safmr
2
$1,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40324
payment standard 110
3
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40324
payment standard 90
3
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40324
safmr
3
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40324
payment standard 110
4
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40324
payment standard 90
4
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40324
safmr
4
$2,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.