Reads as: riskier than 18.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
12
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+29.4 vs natl
DIVERSIFIED HEALTHCARE TRUST
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+29.4 vs natl
SNH TRS INC
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+29.2 vs natl
SNH PROJ LINCOLN TRS LLC
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.4 vs natl
SNH TRS LICENSEE HOLDCO LLC
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.4 vs natl
ABP TRUST
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.4 vs natl
FLAT FOOTED LLC
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.4 vs natl
H 2 SPECIAL OPPORTUNITIES IV L P
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.0 vs natl
CLARK JENNIFER
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.0 vs natl
BILOTTO CHRISTOPHER
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.5 vs natl
BROWN MATTHEW
12 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
VANGUARD GROUP INC
324 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
BLACKROCK INC
303 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
KY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.08
3.11
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.21
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.94
3.01
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.13
3.16
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
83.7
3.08
0.21
0.78
2.09
2.94
0.8%
2025Q3
92
83.9
2.90
0.24
0.70
1.96
2.71
0.3%
2025Q2
91
82.8
3.10
0.29
0.73
2.08
2.87
0.6%
2025Q1
90
84.2
3.24
0.31
0.84
2.09
3.05
0.1%
2024Q4
92
83.9
3.28
0.26
0.90
2.12
3.02
0.0%
2024Q3
92
81.3
3.23
0.28
0.94
2.02
2.99
0.0%
2024Q2
91
82.7
2.98
0.24
0.79
1.96
2.96
0.0%
2024Q1
91
84.2
3.25
0.30
0.97
1.97
3.08
0.0%
2023Q4
92
82.9
3.17
0.23
1.01
1.93
3.06
0.1%
2023Q3
92
80.2
3.23
0.24
1.01
1.97
3.11
0.1%
2023Q2
91
82.0
3.21
0.33
1.04
1.84
2.90
14.3%
2023Q1
90
73.5
3.41
0.34
1.02
2.05
3.25
25.5%
2022Q4
92
73.6
3.80
0.44
0.97
2.38
3.47
27.7%
2022Q3
92
73.6
3.50
0.37
0.88
2.24
3.33
19.0%
2022Q2
91
70.4
3.67
0.34
1.08
2.25
3.34
11.6%
2022Q1
90
62.6
3.52
0.31
0.89
2.32
3.40
11.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
D × 5E × 3F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-04-03
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-05-09
2025-04-03
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-05-09
2019-01-31
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2019-03-29
2019-01-31
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2019-03-29
2019-01-31
Health
F0744
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with dementia.
D
2019-03-29
2019-01-31
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2019-03-29
2019-01-31
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2019-03-29
2019-01-31
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2019-03-29
2019-01-31
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-03-29
2019-01-31
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
E
2019-03-29
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
41
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
SNH PROJ LINCOLN TRS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ABP TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2014-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
BILOTTO, CHRISTOPHER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLACKROCK INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
1999-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
BROWN, MATTHEW
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHEEK, ALLISON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
CLARK, JENNIFER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DIVERSIFIED HEALTHCARE TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DOODNAUTH, DAVANAND
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
DOODNAUTH, DAVANAND
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-22
current
pecos_ownership
FLAT FOOTED LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
H/2 SPECIAL OPPORTUNITIES IV L.P.
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2020-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
MARINKO, JESSE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
PAULA, ANTHONY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-12-18
current
pecos_ownership
PESEK, SETH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-08-14
current
pecos_ownership
PHOENIX SENIOR LIVING LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-08
current
pecos_ownership
PORTNOY, ADAM
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2007-05-31
current
pecos_ownership
PORTNOY, ADAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RAMEY, COURTNEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
SILVER POINT CAPITAL OFFSHORE FUND
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
SNH TRS LICENSEE HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SNH TRS, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VANGUARD GROUP INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
1999-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
WHITT, TINA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITT, TINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
WICKS, CHASIDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-12
current
pecos_ownership
ADAM PORTNOY
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2007-05-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ADAM PORTNOY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALLISON CHEEK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY PAULA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-12-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHASIDY WICKS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER BILOTTO
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COURTNEY RAMEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVANAND DOODNAUTH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVANAND DOODNAUTH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER CLARK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSE MARINKO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW BROWN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SETH PESEK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-08-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TINA WHITT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TINA WHITT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2021-12-31
$1,025,712
—
$615,450
$410,262
—
2
—
2020-12-31
$1,326,978
—
$701,925
$625,053
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 21067
acs median gross
0
$836
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21067
fmr
0
$883
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21067
acs median gross
1
$959
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21067
fmr
1
$1,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21067
acs median gross
2
$1,178
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21067
fmr
2
$1,272
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21067
acs median gross
3
$1,499
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21067
fmr
3
$1,743
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21067
acs median gross
4
$1,651
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21067
fmr
4
$1,940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21067
acs median gross
5
$1,398
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21067
acs median gross
$1,164
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21067
acs recent mover gross
$1,390
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40504
acs median gross
0
$859
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40504
acs median gross
1
$802
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40504
acs median gross
2
$1,020
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40504
acs median gross
3
$1,325
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40504
acs median gross
4
$1,940
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40504
acs median gross
5
$730
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40504
acs median gross
$970
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40504
acs recent mover gross
$1,064
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 40504
payment standard 110
0
$924
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40504
payment standard 90
0
$756
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40504
safmr
0
$840
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40504
payment standard 110
1
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40504
payment standard 90
1
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40504
safmr
1
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40504
payment standard 110
2
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40504
payment standard 90
2
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40504
safmr
2
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40504
payment standard 110
3
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40504
payment standard 90
3
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40504
safmr
3
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40504
payment standard 110
4
$2,035
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40504
payment standard 90
4
$1,665
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40504
safmr
4
$1,850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.