Reads as: riskier than 16.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
PHARMACY CONSULTS LLC
35 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCGINNIS LARRY
36 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.29
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.28
0.15
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.93
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.43
3.46
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
117.0
3.29
0.28
0.63
2.38
2.93
0.0%
2025Q3
92
114.3
3.35
0.24
0.66
2.45
3.05
0.0%
2025Q2
91
120.2
3.06
0.29
0.62
2.15
2.73
0.0%
2025Q1
90
122.3
3.13
0.23
0.61
2.29
2.89
0.0%
2024Q4
92
122.4
3.08
0.11
0.74
2.23
2.88
0.0%
2024Q3
92
118.8
3.10
0.07
0.75
2.27
3.01
0.0%
2024Q2
91
118.2
2.91
0.06
0.78
2.08
2.61
0.0%
2024Q1
91
121.1
2.86
0.01
0.74
2.10
2.49
0.0%
2023Q4
92
123.7
2.85
0.07
0.71
2.07
2.46
0.0%
2023Q3
92
124.1
2.70
0.06
0.70
1.95
2.28
0.0%
2023Q2
91
125.3
2.63
0.16
0.63
1.85
2.14
0.0%
2023Q1
90
127.9
2.59
0.17
0.60
1.82
2.13
0.0%
2022Q4
92
122.3
2.59
0.15
0.65
1.79
2.22
0.0%
2022Q3
92
122.8
2.56
0.12
0.65
1.80
2.27
0.0%
2022Q2
91
119.1
2.66
0.05
0.85
1.76
2.22
0.0%
2022Q1
90
117.6
2.48
0.05
0.82
1.61
2.15
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
8
D × 3E × 4F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-06-12
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-07-12
2024-06-12
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
D
2024-07-12
2024-06-12
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-07-12
2024-06-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-07-12
2023-06-15
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2023-07-14
2023-06-15
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2023-07-14
2023-06-15
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
E
2023-07-14
2023-06-15
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2023-07-14
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
45
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
OVATION HEALTH SYSTEMS, INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2012-11-13
current
pecos_ownership
3B HOLDINGS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-04-09
current
pecos_ownership
ADAMS, ANTHONY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ADAMS, ANTHONY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-11-13
current
pecos_ownership
ADAMS, BRYAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ADAMS, BRYAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-11-13
current
pecos_ownership
CENTENNIAL BANK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELLIS, JOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOME BANCSHARES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
INCITE REHAB, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
IVIE, BOBBIE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-08-28
current
pecos_ownership
KOEHLER, TOBEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LTC SYSTEMS/RX, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAINORD, WILLIAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCGINNIS, LARRY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
OM ACQ LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
OM ACQ LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
PAINE, JOHNNY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-28
current
pecos_ownership
PEDIGO, RITA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PHARMACY CONSULTS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RELIANCE HEALTH CARE, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RUHTER, CHRISTIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-06-15
current
pecos_ownership
TALBOT, LAUREN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-10-24
current
pecos_ownership
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
WHITE CO RE, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHRISTIE RUHTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2020-06-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY ADAMS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2012-11-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRYAN ADAMS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2012-11-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHNNY PAINE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2024-08-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY ADAMS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BOBBIE IVIE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRYAN ADAMS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN ELLIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARRY MCGINNIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAUREN TALBOT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2016-10-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OM ACQ LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
OM ACQ LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
OM ACQ LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
RITA PEDIGO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
TOBEY KOEHLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM MAINORD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$3,407,441
—
—
$587,476
$152,256
14
propco
2023-12-31
$3,432,579
—
—
$564,380
$140,192
14
propco
2022-12-31
$2,502,148
—
—
$555,929
$134,479
14
propco
2021-12-31
$2,417,633
—
—
$596,190
$163,955
14
propco
2020-12-31
$2,307,450
—
—
$660,798
$98,542
14
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 05145
acs median gross
0
$821
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05145
fmr
0
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05145
acs median gross
1
$601
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05145
fmr
1
$734
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05145
acs median gross
2
$832
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05145
fmr
2
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05145
acs median gross
3
$1,007
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05145
fmr
3
$1,149
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05145
acs median gross
4
$1,129
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05145
fmr
4
$1,165
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05145
acs median gross
5
$1,170
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05145
acs median gross
$850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05145
acs recent mover gross
$869
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72143
acs median gross
0
$874
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72143
acs median gross
1
$646
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72143
acs median gross
2
$874
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72143
acs median gross
3
$1,097
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72143
acs median gross
4
$779
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72143
acs median gross
5
$1,518
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72143
acs median gross
$904
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72143
acs recent mover gross
$831
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 72143
payment standard 110
0
$715
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 90
0
$585
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
safmr
0
$650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 110
1
$836
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 90
1
$684
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
safmr
1
$760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 110
2
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 90
2
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
safmr
2
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 110
3
$1,309
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 90
3
$1,071
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
safmr
3
$1,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 110
4
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
payment standard 90
4
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72143
safmr
4
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.