Composite
1.1 / 100 percentile
Screener / 045481
A
CRAIGHEAD NURSING CENTER
snfAR
5101 HARRISBURG RD, JONESBORO, AR 72404 · CCN 045481
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
121
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 1.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model2Components6CHOW radar1Distress radar1Penalties0Deficiencies5Licensure0Ownership34Related party0Transactions0Comps12Market rent35
Composite explanation
2| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.2 | 25.0 | 0.15 | 0.3333 | 8.40 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 7.9 | 5.0 | 0.30 | 0.6667 | 5.27 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Component scores and registry models
6| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 5.0 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| regulatory risk | 4.9 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 4.9 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
0.1%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
25.3
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No PBJ staffing report | 1.00 | -3.61 | |
| Occupancy | 0.00 | +2.02 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 0.00 | +0.60 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.2%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
61.8
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No PBJ staffing report | 1.00 | -7.43 | |
| Occupancy | 0.00 | +3.15 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 0.00 | +1.35 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
5D × 1E × 4
deficiencies by survey year
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-05 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2026-01-02 |
| 2025-04-08 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | E | 2025-05-07 |
| 2024-07-11 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2024-08-10 |
| 2024-07-11 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2024-08-10 |
| 2024-07-11 | Health · complaint | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-08-10 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
34| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOWMAN, DEREK | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2022-12-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BOWMAN, DEREK | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2023-06-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BUCHANAN, KATHY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2020-10-26 | current | pecos_ownership |
| COOK, SUNNY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DAVIS, KARA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DUNCAN, ROBIN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FARMER, CAROLE | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2024-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GRAMLING, JAMES | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2019-09-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JACKSON, GABRELLIA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MAGLOTHIN, DOUGLAS | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MCDANIEL, PENNY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2016-06-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MOORE, KANDACE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| NEA THERAPY PROVIDERS LLC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PAYNE, JARROD | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2020-04-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| RILEY, ANGELA | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SAGLEY, HEATHER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| THOMAS, SPEIGHT & NOBLE - JONESBORO, PA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WRINKLE, GARY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ANGELA RILEY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CAROLE FARMER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DEREK BOWMAN | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2023-06-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DEREK BOWMAN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2022-12-02 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DOUGLAS MAGLOTHIN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| GABRELLIA JACKSON | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| GARY WRINKLE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| HEATHER SAGLEY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JAMES GRAMLING | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2019-09-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JARROD PAYNE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2020-04-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KANDACE MOORE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KARA DAVIS | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KATHY BUCHANAN | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2020-10-26 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| PENNY MCDANIEL | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2016-06-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ROBIN DUNCAN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SUNNY COOK | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — AR snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-02 | LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE | — | — | — | 50 | HOT SPRINGS SNF OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-02 | LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT MOUNTAIN HOME | — | — | — | 70 | MOUNTAIN HOME SNF OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT STAR CITY REHAB & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 95 | N DREW STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT OAKDALE REHAB & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 154 | CYNTHIA STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE SPRINGS OF WALDRON | — | — | — | 105 | WALDRON HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | THE SPRINGS OF FAIRFIELD BAY | — | — | — | 55 | INDIAN ROCK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-01-01 | THE SPRINGS OF RED OAK | — | — | — | 80 | RED OAK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-06-01 | Pine Bluff Transitional Care | — | — | — | 177 | PINE BLUFF NURSING, LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | The Blossoms at Berryville Rehab & Nursing Center | — | — | — | 114 | HAMMONS AVENUE OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT EUREKA SPRINGS REHAB & NURSING CEN | — | — | — | 100 | HUNTSVILLE ROAD OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT VAN BUREN REHAB AND NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 129 | MAIN STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC | — | — | — | 105 | PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 05031 | acs median gross | 0 | $814 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05031 | fmr | 0 | $805 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05031 | acs median gross | 1 | $757 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05031 | fmr | 1 | $870 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05031 | acs median gross | 2 | $943 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05031 | fmr | 2 | $1,040 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05031 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,164 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05031 | fmr | 3 | $1,402 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05031 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,067 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05031 | fmr | 4 | $1,480 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05031 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,125 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05031 | acs median gross | $958 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 05031 | acs recent mover gross | $922 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 72404 | acs median gross | 0 | $866 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72404 | acs median gross | 1 | $780 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72404 | acs median gross | 2 | $993 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72404 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,311 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72404 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,586 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72404 | acs median gross | $946 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 72404 | acs recent mover gross | $886 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 72404 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $913 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72404 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $747 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72404 | safmr | 0 | $830 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72404 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $990 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72404 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72404 | safmr | 1 | $900 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72404 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,177 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72404 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $963 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72404 | safmr | 2 | $1,070 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72404 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,584 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72404 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,296 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72404 | safmr | 3 | $1,440 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72404 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,672 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72404 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,368 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72404 | safmr | 4 | $1,520 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.