Reads as: riskier than 24.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
SC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.83
3.32
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.23
0.33
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.61
3.05
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.91
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
83.9
2.83
0.23
0.85
1.75
2.61
13.0%
2025Q3
92
81.3
2.81
0.20
0.84
1.77
2.70
9.9%
2025Q2
91
84.4
2.74
0.27
0.72
1.75
2.63
8.9%
2025Q1
90
85.4
2.71
0.32
0.64
1.75
2.67
6.6%
2024Q4
92
83.9
2.79
0.30
0.67
1.82
2.80
7.9%
2024Q3
92
84.2
2.79
0.30
0.74
1.75
2.69
10.8%
2024Q2
91
82.7
2.79
0.21
0.83
1.75
2.74
7.2%
2024Q1
91
85.0
2.74
0.24
0.76
1.75
2.71
5.2%
2023Q4
92
82.4
2.73
0.23
0.78
1.73
2.70
6.4%
2023Q3
92
81.5
2.70
0.19
0.79
1.73
2.67
9.8%
2023Q2
91
78.2
2.76
0.24
0.78
1.74
2.69
7.8%
2023Q1
90
78.6
2.72
0.19
0.82
1.72
2.65
10.5%
2022Q4
92
76.2
2.88
0.26
0.81
1.80
2.82
20.8%
2022Q3
92
76.0
2.70
0.26
0.77
1.66
2.77
23.7%
2022Q2
91
77.1
2.69
0.16
0.80
1.74
2.66
23.2%
2022Q1
90
77.2
2.76
0.13
0.92
1.71
2.77
19.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
16
D × 10E × 2F × 4
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-03-25
Health
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2025-04-14
2025-03-25
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2025-04-14
2025-03-25
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2025-04-14
2025-03-25
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2025-04-14
2025-03-25
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-04-14
2025-03-25
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-04-14
2025-03-25
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
F
2025-04-14
2024-06-12
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-06-30
2023-06-23
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-07-31
2023-06-23
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2023-07-31
2023-06-23
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2023-07-31
2023-06-23
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-07-31
2023-06-23
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2023-07-31
2023-06-23
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2023-07-31
2023-06-23
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-07-31
2023-06-23
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2023-07-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
13
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
THI OF SOUTH CAROLINA, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2017-07-20
current
pecos_ownership
255 MIDLANDS HOLDINGS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
25%
2023-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
255 MIDLANDS HOLDINGS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
25%
2022-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
FLATHMANN, RUSTY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROBINSON, GWENDOLYN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2010-02-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MURRAY FORMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2006-03-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THI OF BALTIMORE, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2007-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
255 MIDLANDS HOLDINGS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
25%
2020-10-01
ended 2021-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
255 MIDLANDS HOLDINGS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
25%
2021-10-01
ended 2022-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
255 MIDLANDS HOLDINGS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
25%
2019-10-01
ended 2020-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
GWENDOLYN ROBINSON
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2020-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RUSTY FLATHMANN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$1,017,026
$290,993
—
$153,133
$95,961
3
propco
2023-09-30
$811,350
$276,839
—
—
$85,591
2
propco
2022-09-30
$771,566
$276,989
—
—
$67,005
2
propco
2021-09-30
$700,249
$279,775
—
—
$61,018
2
propco
2020-09-30
$657,476
$274,653
—
—
$55,934
2
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 45035
acs median gross
0
$1,474
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45035
fmr
0
$1,557
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45035
acs median gross
1
$1,253
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45035
fmr
1
$1,630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45035
acs median gross
2
$1,356
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45035
fmr
2
$1,787
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45035
acs median gross
3
$1,724
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45035
fmr
3
$2,222
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45035
acs median gross
4
$2,245
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45035
fmr
4
$2,562
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45035
acs median gross
5
$2,081
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45035
acs median gross
$1,463
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45035
acs recent mover gross
$1,836
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29485
acs median gross
0
$1,563
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29485
acs median gross
1
$1,224
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29485
acs median gross
2
$1,528
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29485
acs median gross
3
$1,887
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29485
acs median gross
4
$1,956
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29485
acs median gross
$1,574
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29485
acs recent mover gross
$2,082
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 29485
payment standard 110
0
$1,683
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29485
payment standard 90
0
$1,377
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29485
safmr
0
$1,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29485
payment standard 110
1
$1,771
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29485
payment standard 90
1
$1,449
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29485
safmr
1
$1,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29485
payment standard 110
2
$1,936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29485
payment standard 90
2
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29485
safmr
2
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29485
payment standard 110
3
$2,409
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29485
payment standard 90
3
$1,971
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29485
safmr
3
$2,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29485
payment standard 110
4
$2,772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29485
payment standard 90
4
$2,268
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29485
safmr
4
$2,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.