Composite
99.9 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 98.5 | 92.3 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 29.55 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 96.2 | 94.7 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 28.86 | in index |
| staffing risk | 84.6 | 84.6 | 0.25 | 0.2500 | 21.15 | in index |
| chow risk | 59.2 | 57.7 | 0.15 | 0.1500 | 8.88 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 90.4 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 92.3 | F | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 4.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 8.9 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 94.7 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 84.6 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 79.6 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 59.6 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 72.2 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 90.9 | F | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 94.7 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 94.7 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 84.6 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 84.6 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.30 | +1.16 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.30 | +1.90 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.66 | -0.33 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.69 | +0.22 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | AR median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.69 | 3.38 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.10 | 0.15 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.52 | 3.09 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.76 | 3.46 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 30.2 | 2.69 | 0.10 | 0.94 | 1.65 | 2.52 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 29.8 | 2.70 | 0.29 | 1.08 | 1.33 | 2.85 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 32.9 | 2.81 | 0.03 | 1.08 | 1.71 | 2.41 | 15.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 30.1 | 3.11 | 0.08 | 1.21 | 1.83 | 3.18 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 28.0 | 3.35 | 0.06 | 1.34 | 1.95 | 3.33 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 26.7 | 3.53 | 0.11 | 1.31 | 2.11 | 3.45 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 31.9 | 2.97 | 0.09 | 1.06 | 1.82 | 2.88 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 30.9 | 3.49 | 0.10 | 1.33 | 2.05 | 3.19 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 28.4 | 3.19 | 0.10 | 1.00 | 2.10 | 2.64 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 29.6 | 2.52 | 0.10 | 0.84 | 1.59 | 2.29 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 30.5 | 2.51 | 0.10 | 0.91 | 1.50 | 2.24 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 28.1 | 2.11 | 0.09 | 0.77 | 1.26 | 2.15 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 29.1 | 2.78 | 0.10 | 0.96 | 1.71 | 2.72 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 30.4 | 2.50 | 0.10 | 0.79 | 1.62 | 2.46 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 34.4 | 2.46 | 0.12 | 0.76 | 1.57 | 2.50 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 33.8 | 2.53 | 0.12 | 0.78 | 1.64 | 2.62 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-06 | Fine | $113,710 | CMS provider data |
| 2025-05-06 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| 2024-02-01 | Fine | $10,208 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | F | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0636 | Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months. | E | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | E | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health · complaint | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2025-10-07 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | J | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | K | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0700 | Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail. | K | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0726 | Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being. | K | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | L | 2025-10-07 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health · complaint | F0729 | Verify that a nurse aide has been trained; and if they haven't worked as a nurse aide for 2 years, receive retraining. | F | 2025-10-07 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0835 | Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently. | L | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | F | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | F | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0844 | Follow rules about disclosure of ownership requirements and tell the state agency about changes in ownership and/or administrative personnel. | F | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0847 | Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse. | E | 2025-10-07 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0848 | Provide a neutral and fair arbitration process and agree to arbitrator and venue. | E | 2025-10-07 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0944 | Conduct mandatory training, for all staff, on the facility’s Quality Assurance and Performance Improvement Program. | F | 2025-06-06 |
| 2025-05-06 | Health | F0946 | Provide training in compliance and ethics. | F | 2025-06-06 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2024-02-29 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0639 | Maintain 15 months of resident assessments in the resident's active clinical record. | E | 2024-02-29 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | G | 2024-02-29 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | E | 2024-02-29 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0803 | Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident. | E | 2024-02-29 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | E | 2024-02-29 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0805 | Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs. | E | 2024-02-29 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-02-29 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0849 | Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services. | D | 2024-02-29 |
| 2024-02-01 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-02-29 |
| 2022-10-27 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2022-11-25 |
| 2022-10-27 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | B | 2022-10-27 |
| 2022-10-27 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2022-11-25 |
| 2022-10-27 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-11-25 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASHTON PLACE MANOR LLC | Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization | 100% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| ASHTON PLACE MANOR LLC | Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization | 100% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| HUDDLESTON, NADINE | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2014-01-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MONTGOMERY, BRADFORD | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2014-01-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ASHTON PLACE MANOR LLC | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| ASHTON PLACE MANOR LLC | Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization | 100% | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| ASHTON PLACE MANOR LLC | Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization | 100% | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| BRADFORD MONTGOMERY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2014-01-02 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NADINE HUDDLESTON | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2014-01-02 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-02 | LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE | — | — | — | 50 | HOT SPRINGS SNF OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-02 | LAKE FOREST SENIOR LIVING AT MOUNTAIN HOME | — | — | — | 70 | MOUNTAIN HOME SNF OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT STAR CITY REHAB & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 95 | N DREW STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT OAKDALE REHAB & NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 154 | CYNTHIA STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | THE SPRINGS OF WALDRON | — | — | — | 105 | WALDRON HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-05-01 | THE SPRINGS OF FAIRFIELD BAY | — | — | — | 55 | INDIAN ROCK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-01-01 | THE SPRINGS OF RED OAK | — | — | — | 80 | RED OAK HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-06-01 | Pine Bluff Transitional Care | — | — | — | 177 | PINE BLUFF NURSING, LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | The Blossoms at Berryville Rehab & Nursing Center | — | — | — | 114 | HAMMONS AVENUE OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT EUREKA SPRINGS REHAB & NURSING CEN | — | — | — | 100 | HUNTSVILLE ROAD OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | THE BLOSSOMS AT VAN BUREN REHAB AND NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 129 | MAIN STREET OPERATING LLC |
| 2023-04-01 | PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC | — | — | — | 105 | PIGGOTT HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING, LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 05007 | acs median gross | 0 | $911 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05007 | fmr | 0 | $1,007 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05007 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,027 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05007 | fmr | 1 | $1,115 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05007 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,150 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05007 | fmr | 2 | $1,347 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05007 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,488 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05007 | fmr | 3 | $1,873 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05007 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,866 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 05007 | fmr | 4 | $2,213 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 05007 | acs median gross | $1,277 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 05007 | acs recent mover gross | $1,529 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 72714 | acs median gross | 2 | $960 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72714 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,508 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 72714 | acs median gross | $1,338 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 72714 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,287 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72714 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,053 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72714 | safmr | 0 | $1,170 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72714 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,419 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72714 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,161 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72714 | safmr | 1 | $1,290 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72714 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,716 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72714 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,404 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72714 | safmr | 2 | $1,560 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72714 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,387 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72714 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,953 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72714 | safmr | 3 | $2,170 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72714 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,816 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72714 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,304 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 72714 | safmr | 4 | $2,560 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |