1923 EAST JOYCE BLVD, FAYETTEVILLE, AR 72703 · CCN 045125
Composite
11.8 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
87
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 11.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
6.12
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.29
0.15
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
5.61
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
6.32
3.46
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
38.0
6.12
0.29
1.26
4.56
5.61
0.1%
2025Q3
92
37.8
6.13
0.29
1.30
4.54
5.41
2.4%
2025Q2
91
41.8
5.79
0.41
1.30
4.08
4.91
0.6%
2025Q1
90
48.5
5.09
0.22
1.18
3.69
4.51
0.0%
2024Q4
92
49.1
5.14
0.27
1.08
3.79
4.72
0.0%
2024Q3
92
46.1
5.15
0.24
1.13
3.78
4.67
0.0%
2024Q2
91
44.9
4.85
0.16
1.23
3.45
4.60
0.0%
2024Q1
91
41.4
5.45
0.22
1.31
3.92
5.24
0.0%
2023Q4
92
41.0
5.63
0.50
1.08
4.04
5.29
0.0%
2023Q3
92
42.7
5.21
0.56
1.03
3.62
4.79
0.0%
2023Q2
91
40.6
5.11
0.26
1.33
3.52
4.70
0.0%
2023Q1
90
43.7
4.82
0.27
1.27
3.29
4.23
4.3%
2022Q4
92
42.2
4.52
0.26
1.17
3.08
4.13
0.6%
2022Q3
92
40.5
4.72
0.37
1.14
3.22
4.31
0.1%
2022Q2
91
41.5
3.42
0.30
0.75
2.37
3.22
0.0%
2022Q1
90
42.3
5.10
0.41
1.08
3.60
5.14
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2025-04-05
2025-03-06
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
H
2025-04-05
2024-11-20
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-03-03
2024-11-20
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
G
2025-03-03
2024-07-11
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2024-08-09
2024-07-11
Health
F0661
Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge.
B
2024-07-11
2024-07-11
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2024-08-09
2024-07-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-08-09
2023-05-26
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2023-06-29
2023-05-26
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2023-06-29
2023-05-26
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
E
2023-06-29
2023-05-26
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2023-06-29
2023-05-26
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-06-29
2023-05-26
Health
F0909
Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame.
F
2023-06-29
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
30
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CHAPMAN, KIMBERLY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHAPMAN, KIMBERLY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CLARK, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CULVER, RAY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DUELL, MARC
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOORE, KIMBERLY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NICKLE, CHARLES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-26
current
pecos_ownership
OLMSTEAD, THOMAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SIMMONS, NINA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SPEARS, MICHAEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
SPEARS, MICHAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
STULTS, TIMOTHY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VAUGHN-WROBEL, BETH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WRIGHT, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL SPEARS
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2024-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KIMBERLY CHAPMAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARC DUELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RAY CULVER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS OLMSTEAD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY STULTS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES NICKLE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2022-01-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID WILLIAMS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM CLARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
8%
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BETH VAUGHN-WROBEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KIMBERLY CHAPMAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KIMBERLY MOORE
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NINA SIMMONS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL SPEARS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL WRIGHT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 05143
acs median gross
0
$756
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05143
fmr
0
$1,007
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05143
acs median gross
1
$850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05143
fmr
1
$1,115
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05143
acs median gross
2
$1,030
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05143
fmr
2
$1,347
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05143
acs median gross
3
$1,416
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05143
fmr
3
$1,873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05143
acs median gross
4
$1,528
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05143
fmr
4
$2,213
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05143
acs median gross
5
$1,267
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05143
acs median gross
$1,071
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05143
acs recent mover gross
$1,214
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72703
acs median gross
0
$793
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72703
acs median gross
1
$835
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72703
acs median gross
2
$993
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72703
acs median gross
3
$1,365
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72703
acs median gross
4
$1,728
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72703
acs median gross
$1,006
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72703
acs recent mover gross
$1,078
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 72703
payment standard 110
0
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72703
payment standard 90
0
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72703
safmr
0
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72703
payment standard 110
1
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72703
payment standard 90
1
$972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72703
safmr
1
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72703
payment standard 110
2
$1,441
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72703
payment standard 90
2
$1,179
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72703
safmr
2
$1,310
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72703
payment standard 110
3
$2,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72703
payment standard 90
3
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72703
safmr
3
$1,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72703
payment standard 110
4
$2,365
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72703
payment standard 90
4
$1,935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72703
safmr
4
$2,150
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.