Reads as: riskier than 33.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
PRICE TEDDY
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
CANTRELL JEFFREY LEE
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
ROGERS DAWN
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
BOLWAHNN SHEILA
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
KISATCHIE HEALTH LLC
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
SHELTON JAMES
22 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
LA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.32
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.02
0.10
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.93
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.48
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
113.7
3.32
0.02
0.92
2.38
2.93
0.0%
2025Q3
92
108.2
3.52
0.03
0.90
2.59
3.29
0.0%
2025Q2
91
107.3
3.68
0.04
0.94
2.71
3.19
0.0%
2025Q1
90
111.1
3.53
0.03
0.94
2.56
3.09
0.0%
2024Q4
92
113.7
3.58
0.01
0.91
2.67
3.09
0.0%
2024Q3
92
113.5
3.59
0.02
0.89
2.68
3.22
0.0%
2024Q2
91
117.2
3.31
0.10
0.83
2.38
2.91
0.0%
2024Q1
91
116.8
3.14
0.14
0.79
2.21
2.64
0.0%
2023Q4
92
117.2
3.27
0.10
0.83
2.35
2.82
0.0%
2023Q3
92
115.2
3.23
0.06
0.88
2.29
2.80
0.0%
2023Q2
91
109.6
3.33
0.07
0.90
2.36
2.80
0.0%
2023Q1
90
102.3
3.34
0.11
0.94
2.29
2.87
0.0%
2022Q4
92
96.4
3.40
0.10
0.94
2.36
3.00
0.0%
2022Q3
92
85.3
3.39
0.11
1.03
2.25
2.99
0.0%
2022Q2
91
78.9
3.53
0.15
1.07
2.31
3.07
0.0%
2022Q1
90
79.2
3.35
0.20
0.99
2.16
2.98
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
15
C × 1D × 9E × 3F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-09-04
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-10-10
2025-07-23
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
E
2025-08-21
2025-07-23
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-08-21
2024-10-03
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-10-28
2024-07-10
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2024-08-09
2024-07-10
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-08-09
2024-07-10
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-08-09
2024-07-10
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-08-09
2024-07-10
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2024-08-09
2024-07-10
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2024-08-09
2024-07-10
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-08-09
2024-03-04
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-04-12
2023-10-02
Health · complaint
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2023-10-27
2023-10-02
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-10-27
2023-08-02
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2023-09-08
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BELLE MAISON HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
65%
2023-04-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BELLE MAISON HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
65%
2024-04-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
KISATCHIE HEALTH, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
65%
2018-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRICO, INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2018-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
JDEC HEALTH LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2018-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHELTON, JAMES
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2018-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
ZIMMERMAN, FREDA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2025-03-31
current
pecos_ownership
BOLWAHNN, SHEILA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
CANTRELL, JEFFREY LEE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
CENTRAL MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANCOCK WHITNEY BANK
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2023-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRICE, TEDDY
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
PRICE, TEDDY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROGERS, DAWN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
TEDDY PRICE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2018-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TEDDY PRICE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
75%
—
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BELLE MAISON HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
65%
2022-04-01
ended 2023-03-31
hcris_a_8_1
BELLE MAISON HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
65%
2021-04-01
ended 2022-03-31
hcris_a_8_1
BELLE MAISON HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
15%
2020-04-01
ended 2021-03-31
hcris_a_8_1
JAMES SHELTON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2018-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDA ZIMMERMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2025-03-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAWN ROGERS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY LEE CANTRELL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHEILA BOLWAHNN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TEDDY PRICE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-03-31
$1,611,671
$321,180
—
$773,362
$109,568
8
propco
2024-03-31
$1,531,384
$312,342
—
$692,711
$118,802
8
propco
2023-03-31
$1,299,951
$385,393
—
$617,867
$79,021
8
propco
2022-03-31
$1,256,564
$461,419
—
$569,047
$57,891
8
propco
2021-03-31
$1,196,853
$476,096
—
$525,815
$55,165
7
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 22105
acs median gross
0
$641
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22105
fmr
0
$831
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22105
acs median gross
1
$808
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22105
fmr
1
$848
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22105
acs median gross
2
$962
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22105
fmr
2
$1,099
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22105
acs median gross
3
$1,200
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22105
fmr
3
$1,372
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22105
acs median gross
4
$1,235
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22105
fmr
4
$1,455
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22105
acs median gross
$1,003
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22105
acs recent mover gross
$1,185
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70403
acs median gross
1
$995
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70403
acs median gross
2
$912
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70403
acs median gross
3
$1,367
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70403
acs median gross
4
$1,186
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70403
acs median gross
$1,079
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70403
acs recent mover gross
$1,410
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 70403
payment standard 110
0
$1,056
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70403
payment standard 90
0
$864
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70403
safmr
0
$960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70403
payment standard 110
1
$1,078
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70403
payment standard 90
1
$882
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70403
safmr
1
$980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70403
payment standard 110
2
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70403
payment standard 90
2
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70403
safmr
2
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70403
payment standard 110
3
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70403
payment standard 90
3
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70403
safmr
3
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70403
payment standard 110
4
$2,013
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70403
payment standard 90
4
$1,647
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70403
safmr
4
$1,830
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.