Reads as: riskier than 42.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
SC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.01
3.32
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.28
0.33
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.69
3.05
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.14
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
84.8
3.01
0.28
1.09
1.64
2.69
1.6%
2025Q3
92
82.9
3.33
0.30
1.22
1.81
2.87
0.3%
2025Q2
91
80.5
3.33
0.26
1.18
1.89
2.98
3.0%
2025Q1
90
82.9
3.79
0.40
1.37
2.03
3.44
13.4%
2024Q4
92
82.2
3.48
0.34
1.38
1.77
3.08
3.8%
2024Q3
92
82.1
3.36
0.31
1.24
1.82
2.92
2.1%
2024Q2
91
77.6
3.51
0.49
1.26
1.76
3.21
7.0%
2024Q1
91
81.4
3.36
0.34
1.24
1.78
2.96
0.0%
2023Q4
92
82.6
3.39
0.30
1.28
1.81
2.87
0.0%
2023Q3
92
81.8
3.51
0.29
1.36
1.86
3.04
0.0%
2023Q2
91
81.8
2.88
0.13
0.96
1.79
2.70
0.0%
2023Q1
90
80.4
3.08
0.12
1.05
1.90
2.80
0.0%
2022Q4
92
79.3
3.23
0.17
0.98
2.09
3.03
0.0%
2022Q3
92
76.6
3.30
0.18
1.01
2.12
3.14
0.0%
2022Q2
91
73.3
3.07
0.17
0.97
1.93
3.01
0.0%
2022Q1
90
72.5
3.13
0.20
0.98
1.95
3.11
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
12
D × 9E × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-12-16
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2026-01-15
2025-12-16
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2026-01-15
2025-12-16
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-12-15
2025-12-16
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2026-01-15
2024-07-16
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-08-06
2024-07-16
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-08-06
2024-07-16
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2024-08-06
2024-07-16
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-08-06
2022-09-09
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2022-10-14
2022-09-09
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2022-10-14
2022-09-09
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2022-10-14
2022-09-09
Health
F0918
Provide a bathroom in or located near each resident’s room.
D
2022-10-14
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PALMETTO COMMUNITY HEALTHCARE, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-06-29
current
pecos_ownership
APT, FREDERICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BUDHOO, DAVID
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCCOWAN, KEVIN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-10-15
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-06-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID BUDHOO
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN MCCOWAN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-10-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SC-GA PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-08-31
hcris_a_8_1
SC-GA PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$583,291
—
$583,291
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$693,086
—
$693,086
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$623,299
—
$623,299
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$231,237
—
$237,635
—
—
1
—
2021-08-31
$2,008,837
$863,823
—
$658,344
$60,709
21
propco
2020-12-31
$3,025,835
$1,308,320
—
$987,509
$91,064
23
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2021-09-01
—
ANDERSON COMMUNITY HEALTHCARE, LLC
SC-GA2018 LINLEY PARK REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER LLC
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 45007
acs median gross
0
$1,018
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45007
fmr
0
$1,022
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45007
acs median gross
1
$821
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45007
fmr
1
$1,035
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45007
acs median gross
2
$921
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45007
fmr
2
$1,173
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45007
acs median gross
3
$1,119
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45007
fmr
3
$1,519
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45007
acs median gross
4
$1,416
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45007
fmr
4
$1,849
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45007
acs median gross
5
$1,388
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45007
acs median gross
$989
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45007
acs recent mover gross
$1,317
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29625
acs median gross
0
$1,093
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29625
acs median gross
1
$997
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29625
acs median gross
2
$1,046
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29625
acs median gross
3
$1,083
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29625
acs median gross
4
$1,118
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29625
acs median gross
$1,057
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29625
acs recent mover gross
$1,193
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 29625
payment standard 110
0
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29625
payment standard 90
0
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29625
safmr
0
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29625
payment standard 110
1
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29625
payment standard 90
1
$963
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29625
safmr
1
$1,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29625
payment standard 110
2
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29625
payment standard 90
2
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29625
safmr
2
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29625
payment standard 110
3
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29625
payment standard 90
3
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29625
safmr
3
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29625
payment standard 110
4
$2,101
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29625
payment standard 90
4
$1,719
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29625
safmr
4
$1,910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.