Reads as: riskier than 51.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
PHARMACY CONSULTS LLC
35 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCGINNIS LARRY
36 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.30
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.05
0.15
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.08
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.39
3.46
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
55.8
3.30
0.05
0.77
2.49
3.08
0.0%
2025Q3
92
56.0
3.30
0.03
0.77
2.50
3.08
0.0%
2025Q2
91
53.6
3.36
0.04
0.81
2.51
3.21
0.0%
2025Q1
90
49.8
3.82
0.12
0.90
2.80
3.53
0.0%
2024Q4
92
49.8
3.67
0.02
0.86
2.79
3.28
0.0%
2024Q3
92
52.4
3.66
0.17
0.79
2.71
3.38
0.0%
2024Q2
91
58.0
3.30
0.14
0.73
2.44
2.91
0.0%
2024Q1
91
57.8
3.21
0.07
0.80
2.35
2.90
0.0%
2023Q4
92
57.0
3.43
0.07
0.72
2.64
3.13
0.0%
2023Q3
92
56.3
3.29
0.10
0.78
2.41
3.18
0.0%
2023Q2
91
55.5
3.21
0.09
0.81
2.31
2.94
0.0%
2023Q1
90
58.4
2.87
0.07
0.78
2.01
2.62
0.0%
2022Q4
92
54.4
3.08
0.10
0.82
2.16
2.73
0.0%
2022Q3
92
57.8
3.17
0.09
0.83
2.25
3.07
0.0%
2022Q2
91
54.6
3.39
0.04
0.87
2.49
3.27
0.0%
2022Q1
90
56.1
2.87
0.01
0.85
2.01
2.84
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
26
D × 9E × 15F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-10-31
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-11-30
2024-10-31
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-11-30
2024-10-31
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-11-30
2024-10-31
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-11-30
2024-10-31
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-11-30
2024-10-31
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-11-30
2024-10-31
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-11-30
2024-10-31
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-11-30
2024-10-31
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-11-30
2023-11-03
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2023-12-03
2023-11-03
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2023-12-02
2022-07-29
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2022-08-26
2022-07-29
Health
F0636
Assess the resident completely in a timely manner when first admitted, and then periodically, at least every 12 months.
E
2022-08-26
2022-07-29
Health
F0638
Assure that each resident’s assessment is updated at least once every 3 months.
D
2022-08-26
2022-07-29
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
E
2022-08-26
2022-07-29
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-08-26
2022-07-29
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2022-08-26
2022-07-29
Health
F0660
Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs.
E
2022-08-26
2022-07-29
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2022-08-26
2022-07-29
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2022-08-26
2022-07-29
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2022-08-26
2022-07-29
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2022-08-26
2022-07-29
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2022-08-26
2022-07-29
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
E
2022-08-26
2022-07-29
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-08-26
2022-07-29
Health
F0865
Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities.
F
2022-08-26
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
38
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
3B HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2004-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ADAMS, ANTHONY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2004-06-02
current
pecos_ownership
ADAMS, ANTHONY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ADAMS, BRYAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2004-06-02
current
pecos_ownership
ADAMS, BRYAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BURNER, KIMBERLY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-28
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, CHARLES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-20
current
pecos_ownership
ELLIS, JOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACK, NACOLE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
KOEHLER, TOBEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
LTC SYSTEMS/RX, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCGINNIS, LARRY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PHARMACY CONSULTS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
RELIANCE HEALTH CARE, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SP NORTH RE LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
SP NORTH RE LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
SP NORTH RE, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
THOMAS, DARRYL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHARLES DAVIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
2021-12-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RHC OPERATIONS INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2008-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY ADAMS
CORPORATE OFFICER
50%
2004-06-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRYAN ADAMS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2004-06-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DARRYL THOMAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN ELLIS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2004-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOBEY KOEHLER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2004-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY ADAMS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRYAN ADAMS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KIMBERLY BURNER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARRY MCGINNIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2004-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NACOLE JACK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SP NORTH RE LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
SP NORTH RE LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
SP NORTH RE LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
THE HEARTLAND AGENCY
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$577,529
—
—
$88,259
$100,173
14
propco
2023-12-31
$615,489
—
—
$159,534
$96,164
14
propco
2022-12-31
$606,223
—
—
$184,495
$93,800
14
propco
2021-12-31
$535,565
—
—
$173,910
$83,959
14
propco
2020-12-31
$549,905
—
—
$212,438
$67,627
14
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 05143
acs median gross
0
$756
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05143
fmr
0
$1,007
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05143
acs median gross
1
$850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05143
fmr
1
$1,115
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05143
acs median gross
2
$1,030
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05143
fmr
2
$1,347
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05143
acs median gross
3
$1,416
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05143
fmr
3
$1,873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05143
acs median gross
4
$1,528
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05143
fmr
4
$2,213
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05143
acs median gross
5
$1,267
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05143
acs median gross
$1,071
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05143
acs recent mover gross
$1,214
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72764
acs median gross
0
$698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72764
acs median gross
1
$774
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72764
acs median gross
2
$964
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72764
acs median gross
3
$1,339
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72764
acs median gross
4
$1,513
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72764
acs median gross
5
$1,540
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72764
acs median gross
$1,050
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72764
acs recent mover gross
$1,142
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 72764
payment standard 110
0
$1,045
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72764
payment standard 90
0
$855
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72764
safmr
0
$950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72764
payment standard 110
1
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72764
payment standard 90
1
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72764
safmr
1
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72764
payment standard 110
2
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72764
payment standard 90
2
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72764
safmr
2
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72764
payment standard 110
3
$1,947
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72764
payment standard 90
3
$1,593
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72764
safmr
3
$1,770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72764
payment standard 110
4
$2,299
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72764
payment standard 90
4
$1,881
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72764
safmr
4
$2,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.