Reads as: riskier than 12.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
LA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.71
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.25
0.10
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.18
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.92
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
163.7
3.71
0.25
1.02
2.44
3.18
0.0%
2025Q3
92
163.3
3.75
0.20
1.08
2.47
3.12
0.0%
2025Q2
91
160.8
3.72
0.21
1.06
2.45
3.13
0.5%
2025Q1
90
158.0
3.76
0.18
1.15
2.42
3.13
0.0%
2024Q4
92
160.8
3.51
0.19
1.06
2.26
3.08
0.0%
2024Q3
92
157.6
3.68
0.27
1.03
2.38
3.19
0.0%
2024Q2
91
155.9
3.83
0.29
1.06
2.49
3.25
0.0%
2024Q1
91
159.6
3.62
0.26
1.05
2.31
3.07
0.0%
2023Q4
92
163.0
3.49
0.25
1.01
2.23
2.86
0.0%
2023Q3
92
161.8
3.54
0.25
1.02
2.26
3.02
0.0%
2023Q2
91
157.8
3.72
0.27
1.04
2.41
3.00
0.0%
2023Q1
90
156.8
3.32
0.25
1.07
2.00
2.76
0.0%
2022Q4
92
154.6
3.46
0.25
1.08
2.13
2.73
0.1%
2022Q3
92
148.7
3.48
0.22
1.11
2.15
2.85
3.4%
2022Q2
91
146.0
3.43
0.18
1.15
2.10
2.77
4.1%
2022Q1
90
138.2
3.58
0.19
1.28
2.12
2.90
7.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2026-03-11
2026-02-11
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2026-03-11
2026-02-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-03-11
2025-01-30
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-02-16
2025-01-30
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-02-16
2025-01-30
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2025-02-16
2025-01-30
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2025-02-16
2025-01-30
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2025-02-16
2025-01-30
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-02-16
2024-02-08
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
J
2024-03-15
2024-02-08
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2024-03-15
2024-02-08
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-03-15
2024-02-08
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-03-15
2024-02-08
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-03-15
2024-02-08
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-03-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
52
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FOREST MANOR LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
FOREST MANOR LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ALEXANDRIA INVESTMENTS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
99%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ALEXANDRIA INVESTMENTS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
99%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
MEDICO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
85%
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ACT INVESTMENTS, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID & FELICIA STALLARD CHILD TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELTON GLYNN BEEBE JR. & NANCY DOTY BEEBE IRRV TR UA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ADMINISTRATIVE SYSTEMS INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ARIA CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEEBE, BOBBY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-12-11
current
pecos_ownership
BEEBE, ELTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEEBE, ELTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FOREST MANOR LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LTC HIM CONSULTING INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2007-05-28
current
pecos_ownership
MCCLANAHAN, MATTHEW
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-12-18
current
pecos_ownership
MEDICO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PARKINSON, TONI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
PARKINSON, TONI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PATHWAY SOUTH LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PERE, CLAY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-02-03
current
pecos_ownership
PHARMACEUTICAL CONSULTING SERVICES OF AMERICA LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-09-22
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE CARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-04-07
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
QSST TR FOR ALISON BEEBE SADLER DANOS AND HER DESCENDANTS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
QSST TR FOR FELICIA BEEBE STALLARD AND HER DESCENDANTS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, SAVANNAH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-11-09
current
pecos_ownership
STALLARD, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-04-07
current
pecos_ownership
THIBODAUX, EARL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRISTAR REHAB INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VERDIN ENTERPRISES, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
ALEXANDRIA INVESTMENTS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ALEXANDRIA INVESTMENTS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FOREST MANOR LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ALEXANDRIA INVESTMENTS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
99%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FOREST MANOR LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
99%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FOREST MANOR LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
99%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
QSST TR FOR ALISON BEEBE SADLER DANOS AND HER DESCENDANTS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
28%
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELTON BEEBE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
28%
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
QSST TR FOR FELICIA BEEBE STALLARD AND HER DESCENDANTS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
28%
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GERARD AND ALISON DANOS CHILDRENS TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH & ALISON SADLER CHILDREN TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BOBBY BEEBE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-12-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CLAY PERE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-02-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID STALLARD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-04-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EARL THIBODAUX
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELTON BEEBE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW MCCLANAHAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-12-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAVANNAH SMITH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-11-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TONI PARKINSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TONI PARKINSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-11-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$554,630
—
—
—
—
4
propco
2023-12-31
$597,074
—
—
—
—
4
propco
2022-12-31
$865,805
—
—
—
—
4
propco
2021-12-31
$968,327
—
—
—
—
4
propco
2020-12-31
$985,194
—
—
—
—
4
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 22103
acs median gross
0
$1,079
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22103
fmr
0
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22103
acs median gross
1
$1,158
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22103
fmr
1
$1,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22103
acs median gross
2
$1,274
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22103
fmr
2
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22103
acs median gross
3
$1,466
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22103
fmr
3
$1,724
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22103
acs median gross
4
$2,020
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22103
fmr
4
$1,996
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22103
acs median gross
$1,332
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22103
acs recent mover gross
$1,505
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70433
acs median gross
1
$1,287
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70433
acs median gross
2
$1,447
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70433
acs median gross
3
$1,492
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70433
acs median gross
4
$2,144
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70433
acs median gross
$1,424
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70433
acs recent mover gross
$1,493
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 70433
payment standard 110
0
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70433
payment standard 90
0
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70433
safmr
0
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70433
payment standard 110
1
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70433
payment standard 90
1
$1,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70433
safmr
1
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70433
payment standard 110
2
$1,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70433
payment standard 90
2
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70433
safmr
2
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70433
payment standard 110
3
$2,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70433
payment standard 90
3
$1,746
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70433
safmr
3
$1,940
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70433
payment standard 110
4
$2,497
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70433
payment standard 90
4
$2,043
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70433
safmr
4
$2,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.