Reads as: riskier than 27.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
14
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.8 vs natl
BAUDER WILLIAM
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.7 vs natl
BAUDER MADISON
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.1 vs natl
BAUDER PARKER
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.1 vs natl
BAUDER KELLY
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.7 vs natl
BAUDER FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
20 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
BAUDER WILLIAM
35 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
BOULWARE STEVEN
40 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
36 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
BAUDER KELLY
21 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
BOULWARE DOUGLAS
38 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
BAUDER PARKER
21 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
BAUDER MADISON
21 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
PROGRESSIVE REHAB SOLUTIONS LLC
33 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
BAUDER FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
19 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
LA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.17
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.04
0.10
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.89
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.28
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
125.2
3.17
0.04
1.09
2.04
2.89
0.0%
2025Q3
92
129.1
3.18
0.03
1.10
2.06
2.90
0.0%
2025Q2
91
128.9
3.17
0.07
1.09
2.01
2.88
0.0%
2025Q1
90
128.2
3.17
0.08
1.11
1.99
2.90
0.1%
2024Q4
92
127.2
3.40
0.04
1.27
2.09
3.08
0.0%
2024Q3
92
121.4
3.49
0.03
1.33
2.13
3.11
0.0%
2024Q2
91
121.8
3.35
0.01
1.23
2.10
2.99
0.0%
2024Q1
91
121.4
3.20
0.01
1.10
2.08
2.90
0.0%
2023Q4
92
125.0
3.31
0.01
1.09
2.21
2.93
0.0%
2023Q3
92
127.7
3.51
0.03
1.04
2.44
3.11
0.0%
2023Q2
91
125.7
3.58
0.01
1.07
2.49
3.10
0.0%
2023Q1
90
123.0
3.38
0.01
1.03
2.34
2.98
0.0%
2022Q4
92
131.1
3.12
0.01
1.02
2.09
2.69
0.0%
2022Q3
92
130.5
3.05
0.02
1.02
2.01
2.65
0.0%
2022Q2
91
133.1
2.87
0.01
1.00
1.86
2.46
0.1%
2022Q1
90
133.0
1.73
0.00
0.69
1.04
1.52
0.2%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
15
B × 1D × 8E × 6
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-12
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
E
2026-04-03
2026-03-12
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2026-04-03
2026-03-12
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2026-04-03
2026-01-15
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2026-02-06
2026-01-15
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
B
2026-02-06
2025-08-05
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-08-21
2025-03-19
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-04-11
2025-03-19
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2025-04-11
2025-03-19
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-04-11
2024-09-05
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-09-27
2024-03-07
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-03-31
2023-12-14
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-01-14
2023-12-14
Health · complaint
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-01-14
2023-09-07
Health · complaint
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
E
2023-09-23
2023-08-09
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-09-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
27
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BAUDER FAMILY INVESTMENTS, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2021-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
FBGM, L.L.C.
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2016-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOULWARE, KAREN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2016-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAUDER, KELLY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2021-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
BAUDER, MADISON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2021-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
BAUDER, PARKER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2021-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
BAUDER, WILLIAM
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
BOULWARE, DOUGLAS
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-07-23
current
pecos_ownership
BOULWARE, STEVEN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOULWARE, STEVEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOULWARE, STEVEN
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-08
current
pecos_ownership
BURKS, JONNAY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DANIELS, BERTHA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
LIPARI, BLAKE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-19
current
pecos_ownership
PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROGRESSIVE REHAB SOLUTIONS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS BOULWARE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2015-07-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN BOULWARE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2016-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN BOULWARE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2016-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLY BAUDER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2021-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MADISON BAUDER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2021-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PARKER BAUDER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2021-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM BAUDER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2021-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BERTHA DANIELS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BLAKE LIPARI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONNAY BURKS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN BOULWARE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,059,692
—
$9,429
$1,524,611
$193,154
13
—
2023-12-31
$1,865,143
—
$8,050
$1,401,929
$169,927
13
—
2022-12-31
$1,662,476
—
—
$1,209,725
$174,941
13
—
2021-12-31
$889,542
—
—
$521,297
$145,217
13
—
2020-12-31
$1,007,313
—
—
$631,335
$120,090
9
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 22071
acs median gross
0
$966
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22071
fmr
0
$964
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22071
acs median gross
1
$1,078
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22071
fmr
1
$1,113
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22071
acs median gross
2
$1,322
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22071
fmr
2
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22071
acs median gross
3
$1,484
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22071
fmr
3
$1,701
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22071
acs median gross
4
$1,727
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22071
fmr
4
$1,996
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22071
acs median gross
5
$1,620
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22071
acs median gross
$1,251
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22071
acs recent mover gross
$1,433
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70131
acs median gross
0
$875
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70131
acs median gross
1
$893
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70131
acs median gross
2
$1,135
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70131
acs median gross
3
$1,667
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70131
acs median gross
4
$1,397
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70131
acs median gross
$1,069
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70131
acs recent mover gross
$853
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 70131
payment standard 110
0
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70131
payment standard 90
0
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70131
safmr
0
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70131
payment standard 110
1
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70131
payment standard 90
1
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70131
safmr
1
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70131
payment standard 110
2
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70131
payment standard 90
2
$1,206
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70131
safmr
2
$1,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70131
payment standard 110
3
$1,881
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70131
payment standard 90
3
$1,539
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70131
safmr
3
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70131
payment standard 110
4
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70131
payment standard 90
4
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70131
safmr
4
$2,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.