2821 W DIXON RD, LITTLE ROCK, AR 72206 · CCN 045446 · chain ZCS AR OPCO LLC
Composite
58.0 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
127
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 58.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.6 vs natl
MH AR OPCO LLC
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.4 vs natl
HERZKA MATISYOHU
16 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AR median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.68
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.03
0.15
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.71
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.67
3.46
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
88.6
2.68
0.03
0.63
2.02
2.71
13.2%
2025Q3
92
84.6
2.78
0.04
0.64
2.10
2.82
18.7%
2025Q2
91
84.2
2.73
0.07
0.58
2.08
2.55
10.0%
2025Q1
90
86.8
2.65
0.21
0.50
1.94
2.52
4.1%
2024Q4
92
84.5
2.92
0.24
0.49
2.19
2.79
3.2%
2024Q3
92
87.1
2.89
0.16
0.58
2.15
2.79
5.1%
2024Q2
91
85.9
2.86
0.12
0.65
2.09
2.76
4.1%
2024Q1
91
75.1
3.13
0.11
0.78
2.24
2.97
12.6%
2023Q4
92
75.2
3.18
0.06
0.82
2.30
3.03
23.5%
2023Q3
92
84.3
2.15
0.03
0.40
1.72
1.88
1.6%
2023Q2
91
83.4
2.68
0.07
0.48
2.13
2.56
3.6%
2023Q1
90
80.6
2.74
0.10
0.43
2.21
2.69
0.9%
2022Q4
92
80.9
2.86
0.16
0.57
2.14
2.69
0.5%
2022Q3
92
80.0
3.05
0.12
0.67
2.26
2.97
0.0%
2022Q2
91
76.7
3.11
0.15
0.66
2.30
3.18
0.0%
2022Q1
90
75.8
3.05
0.19
0.60
2.26
3.15
0.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
31
D × 16E × 14F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-15
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2026-02-09
2026-01-15
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2026-02-09
2026-01-15
Health · complaint
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2026-02-09
2025-07-17
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-08-11
2025-07-17
Health · complaint
F0563
Honor the resident's right to receive visitors of his or her choosing, at the time of his or her choosing.
D
2025-08-11
2024-08-22
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-10-01
2024-08-22
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-10-01
2024-08-22
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-10-01
2024-08-22
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-10-01
2024-08-22
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2024-10-01
2024-08-22
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-10-01
2024-08-22
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
D
2024-10-01
2024-08-22
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-10-01
2024-08-22
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-10-01
2024-08-22
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2024-10-01
2024-08-22
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
E
2024-10-01
2023-09-01
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-09-26
2023-09-01
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-09-26
2023-09-01
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2023-09-26
2023-09-01
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-09-26
2023-09-01
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2023-09-26
2023-09-01
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-09-26
2023-09-01
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-09-26
2023-09-01
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2023-09-26
2023-09-01
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-09-26
2023-09-01
Health
F0770
Provide timely, quality laboratory services/tests to meet the needs of residents.
D
2023-09-26
2023-09-01
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2023-09-26
2023-09-01
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
E
2023-09-26
2023-09-01
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-09-26
2023-09-01
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-09-26
2023-09-01
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2023-09-26
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
12
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PINE TREE HOLDING LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-04-05
current
pecos_ownership
HERZKA, MATISYOHU
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCMILLAN, CYNTHIA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2021-04-05
current
pecos_ownership
MH AR OPCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHEINBAUM, SHLOMO
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHEINBAUM, SHLOMO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-04-05
current
pecos_ownership
CYNTHIA MCMILLAN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2021-04-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHLOMO SCHEINBAUM
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2021-04-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATISYOHU HERZKA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
65%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHLOMO SCHEINBAUM
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
32%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZCS AR OPCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
32%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
2821 WEST DIXON ROAD LLD
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-07-01
ended 2021-04-04
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
1
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2021-04-04
$1,540,810
—
—
—
—
3
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 05119
acs median gross
0
$885
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05119
fmr
0
$984
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05119
acs median gross
1
$904
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05119
fmr
1
$989
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05119
acs median gross
2
$1,062
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05119
fmr
2
$1,147
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05119
acs median gross
3
$1,262
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05119
fmr
3
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05119
acs median gross
4
$1,539
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05119
fmr
4
$1,822
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 05119
acs median gross
5
$1,219
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05119
acs median gross
$1,080
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 05119
acs recent mover gross
$1,166
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72206
acs median gross
0
$473
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72206
acs median gross
1
$782
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72206
acs median gross
2
$875
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72206
acs median gross
3
$1,107
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72206
acs median gross
4
$1,194
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72206
acs median gross
$943
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 72206
acs recent mover gross
$1,186
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 72206
payment standard 110
0
$968
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72206
payment standard 90
0
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72206
safmr
0
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72206
payment standard 110
1
$979
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72206
payment standard 90
1
$801
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72206
safmr
1
$890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72206
payment standard 110
2
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72206
payment standard 90
2
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72206
safmr
2
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72206
payment standard 110
3
$1,518
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72206
payment standard 90
3
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72206
safmr
3
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72206
payment standard 110
4
$1,804
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72206
payment standard 90
4
$1,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 72206
safmr
4
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.