Reads as: riskier than 72.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.8 vs natl
BAUDER WILLIAM
37 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
BAUDER WILLIAM
35 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
BOULWARE STEVEN
40 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP LLC
36 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
BOULWARE DOUGLAS
38 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
PROGRESSIVE REHAB SOLUTIONS LLC
33 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
LA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.85
3.38
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.02
0.10
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.68
3.09
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.92
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
81.7
2.85
0.02
1.01
1.83
2.68
2.3%
2025Q3
92
84.1
2.68
0.07
0.93
1.69
2.56
0.9%
2025Q2
91
84.7
3.00
0.04
1.13
1.83
2.78
2.7%
2025Q1
90
84.8
2.83
0.03
1.14
1.66
2.69
3.1%
2024Q4
92
84.1
2.92
0.04
1.15
1.73
2.86
0.0%
2024Q3
92
83.1
3.11
0.03
1.18
1.90
2.95
0.0%
2024Q2
91
86.8
3.16
0.09
1.07
2.00
2.95
0.0%
2024Q1
91
85.2
3.24
0.11
1.09
2.04
2.96
0.1%
2023Q4
92
86.5
3.15
0.14
1.08
1.92
2.98
0.0%
2023Q3
92
90.4
3.09
0.09
1.12
1.87
2.89
1.4%
2023Q2
91
94.8
3.04
0.05
1.07
1.92
2.80
2.0%
2023Q1
90
93.0
3.31
0.10
1.15
2.07
2.98
6.1%
2022Q4
92
95.1
2.77
0.08
1.02
1.67
2.51
5.8%
2022Q3
92
96.3
2.61
0.10
0.97
1.53
2.32
2.9%
2022Q2
91
97.1
3.02
0.10
0.98
1.95
2.63
1.9%
2022Q1
90
95.9
1.91
0.10
0.62
1.19
1.53
6.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
26
B × 1C × 2D × 15E × 8
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-08
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2026-04-24
2026-01-14
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2026-02-13
2026-01-14
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-02-13
2026-01-14
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2026-02-13
2026-01-14
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2026-02-13
2026-01-14
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2026-02-13
2026-01-14
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
E
2026-02-13
2026-01-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-02-13
2026-01-14
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2026-02-13
2024-12-11
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
C
2025-01-10
2024-12-11
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-01-10
2024-12-11
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-01-10
2024-12-11
Health · complaint
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2025-01-10
2024-12-11
Health
F0801
Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician.
E
2025-01-10
2024-12-11
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-01-10
2024-12-11
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-01-10
2024-12-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-01-10
2024-04-23
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-05-24
2024-04-23
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2024-05-24
2024-04-23
Health · complaint
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2024-06-27
2024-04-23
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-06-27
2024-04-23
Health · complaint
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2024-05-24
2023-11-29
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-01-05
2023-11-29
Health
F0851
Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data.
B
2024-01-05
2023-08-18
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2023-07-26
2023-06-21
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-08-04
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BAUDER, WILLIAM
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOULWARE, DOUGLAS
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOULWARE, STEVEN
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOULWARE, STEVEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LOGSDON, KRISTEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-22
current
pecos_ownership
MAGEE, CLAYTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-16
current
pecos_ownership
PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-27
current
pecos_ownership
PRIORITY MANAGEMENT GROUP, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROGRESSIVE REHAB SOLUTIONS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
TABARI, HOSSEIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-17
current
pecos_ownership
STEVEN BOULWARE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
50%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS BOULWARE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2017-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN BOULWARE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2017-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM BAUDER
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
33%
2017-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CLAYTON MAGEE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HOSSEIN TABARI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTEN LOGSDON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-08-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,466,884
—
$7,250
$1,067,730
$116,910
13
—
2023-12-31
$1,397,289
—
$6,463
$1,038,892
$107,268
13
—
2022-12-31
$1,297,503
—
—
$961,842
$103,974
13
—
2021-12-31
$1,252,698
—
—
$939,624
$91,289
13
—
2020-12-31
$1,274,056
—
—
$1,006,919
$68,533
10
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 22117
acs median gross
0
$545
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22117
fmr
0
$727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22117
acs median gross
1
$300
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22117
fmr
1
$761
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22117
acs median gross
2
$763
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22117
fmr
2
$834
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22117
acs median gross
3
$926
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22117
fmr
3
$1,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22117
acs median gross
4
$828
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22117
fmr
4
$1,388
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 22117
acs median gross
$774
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 22117
acs recent mover gross
$793
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70427
acs median gross
0
$518
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70427
acs median gross
1
$285
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70427
acs median gross
2
$776
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70427
acs median gross
3
$952
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70427
acs median gross
4
$828
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70427
acs median gross
$782
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 70427
acs recent mover gross
$893
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 70427
payment standard 110
0
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70427
payment standard 90
0
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70427
safmr
0
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70427
payment standard 110
1
$1,232
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70427
payment standard 90
1
$1,008
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70427
safmr
1
$1,120
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70427
payment standard 110
2
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70427
payment standard 90
2
$1,206
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70427
safmr
2
$1,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70427
payment standard 110
3
$1,881
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70427
payment standard 90
3
$1,539
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70427
safmr
3
$1,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70427
payment standard 110
4
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70427
payment standard 90
4
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 70427
safmr
4
$2,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.