Reads as: riskier than 46.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
HANCOCK MARK
158 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
SC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.42
3.32
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.53
0.33
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.18
3.05
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.51
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
141.7
3.42
0.53
0.80
2.10
3.18
0.0%
2025Q3
92
141.2
3.52
0.49
0.96
2.07
3.25
0.0%
2025Q2
91
140.4
3.42
0.48
0.89
2.05
3.14
0.0%
2025Q1
90
140.8
3.61
0.61
0.93
2.07
3.23
0.0%
2024Q4
92
140.7
3.63
0.62
0.93
2.09
3.21
0.0%
2024Q3
92
140.5
3.70
0.64
0.95
2.12
3.24
0.0%
2024Q2
91
140.5
3.55
0.59
0.85
2.10
3.09
0.0%
2024Q1
91
139.7
3.59
0.63
0.83
2.12
3.18
0.0%
2023Q4
92
140.5
3.60
0.61
0.86
2.13
3.22
0.0%
2023Q3
92
133.2
3.80
0.71
0.94
2.15
3.42
0.0%
2023Q2
91
140.5
3.42
0.44
0.84
2.13
3.41
0.0%
2023Q1
90
142.0
3.34
0.36
0.89
2.09
3.36
0.0%
2022Q4
92
139.0
3.37
0.27
1.01
2.09
3.35
0.0%
2022Q3
92
139.4
3.34
0.28
0.95
2.11
3.33
0.0%
2022Q2
91
131.2
3.42
0.25
1.03
2.14
3.38
0.0%
2022Q1
90
140.4
3.35
0.25
1.06
2.04
3.34
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2026-01-22
2025-12-23
Health · complaint
F0678
Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives.
J
2026-01-22
2025-12-12
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2026-01-02
2025-12-12
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2026-01-02
2025-12-12
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
C
2026-01-02
2025-12-12
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
E
2026-01-02
2025-12-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-01-02
2024-10-31
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-31
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-31
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-31
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-11-15
2024-05-30
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-06-22
2024-05-30
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-06-22
2023-06-15
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-07-09
2023-06-15
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2023-07-09
2022-09-14
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2022-10-03
2022-09-14
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
E
2022-10-03
2022-09-14
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2022-10-03
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
APT, FREDERICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRYAN, CHACEY
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
COLLINS, BENTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANCOCK, MARK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP NH, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENTON COLLINS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHACEY BRYAN
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,048,910
—
$1,048,910
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$1,256,877
—
$1,256,877
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$1,154,056
—
$1,154,056
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$1,321,081
—
$1,331,983
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$991,573
—
$991,573
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2019-01-31
—
GREER POST ACUTE, LLC
BRUSHY CREEK REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER LLC
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 45045
acs median gross
0
$1,102
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45045
fmr
0
$1,166
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45045
acs median gross
1
$1,130
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45045
fmr
1
$1,221
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45045
acs median gross
2
$1,278
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45045
fmr
2
$1,339
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45045
acs median gross
3
$1,417
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45045
fmr
3
$1,612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45045
acs median gross
4
$1,663
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45045
fmr
4
$1,943
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45045
acs median gross
5
$1,710
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45045
acs median gross
$1,262
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45045
acs recent mover gross
$1,519
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29650
acs median gross
0
$1,261
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29650
acs median gross
1
$1,223
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29650
acs median gross
2
$1,463
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29650
acs median gross
3
$1,571
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29650
acs median gross
4
$1,714
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29650
acs median gross
$1,444
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29650
acs recent mover gross
$1,800
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 29650
payment standard 110
0
$1,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29650
payment standard 90
0
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29650
safmr
0
$1,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29650
payment standard 110
1
$1,606
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29650
payment standard 90
1
$1,314
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29650
safmr
1
$1,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29650
payment standard 110
2
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29650
payment standard 90
2
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29650
safmr
2
$1,600
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29650
payment standard 110
3
$2,123
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29650
payment standard 90
3
$1,737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29650
safmr
3
$1,930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29650
payment standard 110
4
$2,552
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29650
payment standard 90
4
$2,088
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29650
safmr
4
$2,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.