401 East 20th Street, Covington, KY 41014 · CCN 185038
Composite
15.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
82
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 15.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MED NET COMPLIANCE LLC
12 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
KY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.56
3.11
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.39
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.57
3.01
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.55
3.16
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
75.1
2.56
0.39
0.54
1.63
2.57
23.1%
2025Q3
92
75.1
2.54
0.29
0.62
1.63
2.61
13.4%
2025Q2
91
72.8
2.66
0.37
0.62
1.68
2.73
27.0%
2025Q1
90
77.2
2.46
0.41
0.57
1.49
2.49
23.2%
2024Q4
92
75.8
2.56
0.34
0.62
1.60
2.50
1.8%
2024Q3
92
79.2
2.57
0.35
0.58
1.64
2.57
6.3%
2024Q2
91
76.9
2.61
0.30
0.63
1.67
2.60
12.3%
2024Q1
91
78.0
2.56
0.20
0.74
1.62
2.56
5.8%
2023Q4
92
78.8
2.50
0.21
0.65
1.64
2.48
7.0%
2023Q3
92
80.8
2.35
0.24
0.64
1.47
2.30
18.3%
2023Q2
91
73.0
2.59
0.14
0.84
1.61
2.47
20.6%
2023Q1
90
71.9
2.63
0.16
0.82
1.66
2.51
20.9%
2022Q4
92
69.3
2.61
0.22
0.78
1.60
2.38
29.5%
2022Q3
92
71.5
2.39
0.25
0.70
1.44
2.21
41.7%
2022Q2
91
71.6
2.38
0.30
0.45
1.63
2.37
34.8%
2022Q1
90
70.3
2.43
0.36
0.53
1.54
2.28
23.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
15
D × 2E × 9F × 4
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
—
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
—
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
E
—
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
F
—
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
—
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
—
2026-03-26
Health · complaint
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
—
2025-02-28
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
F
2025-04-03
2025-02-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-04-03
2025-02-28
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-04-03
2021-07-15
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2021-08-07
2021-07-15
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2021-08-07
2021-07-15
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2021-09-09
2019-11-21
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2019-12-20
2019-11-21
Health
F0807
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides drinks consistent with resident needs and preferences and sufficient to maintain resident hydration.
E
2019-12-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
34
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
THE PAVILION AT KENTON PROCO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
THE PAVILION AT KENTON PROP CO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
NIELK EQUITIES LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2017-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
LIEBERMAN, NECHEMIA
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2017-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
BERGER, DAVID
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2017-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
KLEIN, CHAIM
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2017-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
KLEIN, GERSHON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2017-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
KLEIN, YISRAEL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2017-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
RAINLAND HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CITRIN COOPERMAN ADVISORS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
FASTEN HALBERSTAM LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
FAUGHN, LAURA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-02
current
pecos_ownership
FREY, CHRISTINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-14
current
pecos_ownership
FULL MED STAFFING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
GALE HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
KRIESER, AKIVA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
MED-NET COMPLIANCE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
MOERMAN, RAFAEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
OVATION REHABILITATION SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
THE PAVILION AT KENTON PROPERTY LLC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2017-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
WILD CAT HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
WILDCAT HOLDING LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-05-09
current
pecos_ownership
THE PAVILION AT KENTON PROP CO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
THE PAVILION AT KENTON PROP CO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
RAFAEL MOERMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
26%
2017-05-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NECHEMIA LIEBERMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2017-05-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID BERGER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2017-05-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAIM KLEIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2017-05-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GERSHON KLEIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2017-05-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YISRAEL KLEIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
8%
2017-05-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AKIVA KRIESER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-05-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINA FREY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA FAUGHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE PAVILION AT KENTON PROP CO
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$554,848
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$727,842
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2022-12-31
$519,232
—
—
—
—
1
propco
2021-12-31
$421,287
—
—
—
—
1
propco
2020-12-31
$460,078
—
—
—
—
1
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2017-08-29
—
PAVILION AT KENTON FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION LLC
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 21117
acs median gross
0
$830
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21117
fmr
0
$958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21117
acs median gross
1
$874
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21117
fmr
1
$1,051
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21117
acs median gross
2
$1,140
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21117
fmr
2
$1,353
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21117
acs median gross
3
$1,407
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21117
fmr
3
$1,785
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21117
acs median gross
4
$1,431
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21117
fmr
4
$1,976
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21117
acs median gross
5
$1,538
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21117
acs median gross
$1,069
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21117
acs recent mover gross
$1,295
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 41014
acs median gross
0
$916
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 41014
acs median gross
1
$862
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 41014
acs median gross
2
$1,069
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 41014
acs median gross
3
$1,277
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 41014
acs median gross
$1,040
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 41014
acs recent mover gross
$1,102
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 41014
payment standard 110
0
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41014
payment standard 90
0
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41014
safmr
0
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41014
payment standard 110
1
$1,023
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41014
payment standard 90
1
$837
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41014
safmr
1
$930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41014
payment standard 110
2
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41014
payment standard 90
2
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41014
safmr
2
$1,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41014
payment standard 110
3
$1,738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41014
payment standard 90
3
$1,422
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41014
safmr
3
$1,580
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41014
payment standard 110
4
$1,925
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41014
payment standard 90
4
$1,575
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 41014
safmr
4
$1,750
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.