Reads as: riskier than 18.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCINTOSH SARAH
9 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
KY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.64
3.11
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.46
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.52
3.01
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.68
3.16
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
104.1
3.64
0.46
0.89
2.29
3.52
0.0%
2025Q3
92
103.8
3.60
0.40
0.90
2.31
3.51
0.0%
2025Q2
91
99.8
3.73
0.51
0.95
2.27
3.57
0.0%
2025Q1
90
90.2
3.88
0.53
1.02
2.33
3.74
0.0%
2024Q4
92
83.9
3.83
0.45
0.98
2.40
3.74
0.0%
2024Q3
92
84.0
3.72
0.51
0.85
2.36
3.49
0.0%
2024Q2
91
85.1
3.55
0.60
0.79
2.17
3.31
0.0%
2024Q1
91
84.3
3.51
0.59
0.85
2.08
3.28
0.0%
2023Q4
92
82.4
3.62
0.63
0.90
2.08
3.43
0.0%
2023Q3
92
81.7
3.82
0.61
0.91
2.30
3.58
0.0%
2023Q2
91
83.3
3.78
0.59
0.96
2.23
3.50
0.0%
2023Q1
90
84.1
3.71
0.57
0.98
2.15
3.34
0.0%
2022Q4
92
81.3
3.69
0.52
1.07
2.10
3.28
0.0%
2022Q3
92
79.3
4.02
0.42
1.21
2.39
3.54
1.3%
2022Q2
91
87.2
3.92
0.47
1.01
2.44
3.48
0.0%
2022Q1
90
87.8
3.96
0.32
1.17
2.47
3.74
1.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
9
D × 7F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-06-12
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-07-08
2024-08-16
Health · complaint
F0740
Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.
D
2024-09-09
2024-08-16
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-09-09
2024-08-16
Health · complaint
F0841
Designate a physician to serve as medical director responsible for implementation of resident care policies and coordination of medical care in the facility.
D
2024-09-09
2024-08-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-09-09
2019-08-16
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2019-09-27
2019-08-16
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2019-09-17
2019-08-16
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2019-09-27
2019-08-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-09-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
48
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ECC TRUST
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BROWN, ERVIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
COX, GRETCHEN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BUTLER, DANNY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
COX, CHRISTOPHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
COX, DOUGLAS
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-27
current
pecos_ownership
CROUCH, BETHANY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-23
current
pecos_ownership
HARGIS & ASSOCIATES, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
HARGIS, FORWOOD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
LINDSEY, JENNIFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-03-07
current
pecos_ownership
MCINTOSH, SARAH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, GREGORY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE HEALTH, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-08
current
pecos_ownership
SHELTON, JASON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-21
current
pecos_ownership
SIMS, CHRIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
SIMS, HELEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
SIMS, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
SIMS, PATRICK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
STOCKTON, EDDY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-31
current
pecos_ownership
SUPERIOR CARE HOME PROPERTIES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
THOMPSON, GEORGE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
THOMPSON, JUDY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-09-02
current
pecos_ownership
TICHENOR, HOLLY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
YOUNG, CARMEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-08
current
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS COX
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
ERVIN BROWN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GRETCHEN COX
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BETHANY CROUCH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CARMEN YOUNG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRIS SIMS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER COX
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANNY BUTLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS COX
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-10-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
EDDY STOCKTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FORWOOD HARGIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE THOMPSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY MITCHELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY MITCHELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-10-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
GRETCHEN COX
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2020-10-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
HELEN SIMS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HOLLY TICHENOR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON SHELTON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER LINDSEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JUDY THOMPSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL SIMS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICK SIMS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH MCINTOSH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN NEE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2020-10-01
ended 2026-04-01
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
1
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2020-09-30
$150,350
—
—
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 21145
fmr
0
$729
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21145
acs median gross
1
$709
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21145
fmr
1
$851
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21145
acs median gross
2
$956
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21145
fmr
2
$1,058
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21145
acs median gross
3
$939
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21145
fmr
3
$1,269
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21145
acs median gross
4
$1,243
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21145
fmr
4
$1,775
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21145
acs median gross
5
$1,630
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21145
acs median gross
$898
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21145
acs recent mover gross
$1,017
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42001
acs median gross
0
$832
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42001
acs median gross
1
$799
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42001
acs median gross
2
$1,006
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42001
acs median gross
3
$1,013
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42001
acs median gross
4
$1,261
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42001
acs median gross
$966
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42001
acs recent mover gross
$1,136
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 42001
payment standard 110
0
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42001
payment standard 90
0
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42001
safmr
0
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42001
payment standard 110
1
$1,023
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42001
payment standard 90
1
$837
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42001
safmr
1
$930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42001
payment standard 110
2
$1,265
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42001
payment standard 90
2
$1,035
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42001
safmr
2
$1,150
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42001
payment standard 110
3
$1,518
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42001
payment standard 90
3
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42001
safmr
3
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42001
payment standard 110
4
$2,123
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42001
payment standard 90
4
$1,737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42001
safmr
4
$1,930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.