1080 SILVER LAKE BLVD, DOVER, DE 19904 · CCN 085027 · chain SMS 2021 TRUST
Composite
31.2 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
120
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 31.2% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
35 chains
WELLTOWER INC
135 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.1 vs natl
SILVERBERG NISANEL
21 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
LANDAU FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
30 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
J R FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
30 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
DE median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.57
3.64
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.65
0.51
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.51
3.58
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.59
3.69
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
114.2
3.57
0.65
0.78
2.15
3.51
9.4%
2025Q3
92
115.9
3.55
0.67
0.71
2.17
3.49
12.1%
2025Q2
91
114.4
3.52
0.64
0.68
2.20
3.41
12.7%
2025Q1
90
114.5
3.55
0.68
0.75
2.12
3.47
11.1%
2024Q4
92
116.5
3.47
0.71
0.71
2.04
3.44
12.4%
2024Q3
92
115.3
3.60
0.84
0.72
2.04
3.52
15.9%
2024Q2
91
115.6
3.44
0.86
0.69
1.89
3.40
18.3%
2024Q1
91
112.1
3.57
1.02
0.62
1.93
3.49
16.7%
2023Q4
92
113.0
3.41
0.96
0.58
1.87
3.37
18.8%
2023Q3
92
107.5
3.41
0.79
0.59
2.03
3.37
13.3%
2023Q2
91
106.3
3.34
0.64
0.65
2.04
3.30
10.3%
2023Q1
90
100.8
3.44
0.64
0.73
2.08
3.32
8.2%
2022Q4
92
105.1
3.42
0.68
0.70
2.04
3.34
14.0%
2022Q3
92
104.8
3.35
0.71
0.70
1.94
3.27
17.6%
2022Q2
91
97.5
3.48
0.66
0.74
2.09
3.30
13.5%
2022Q1
90
98.3
3.66
0.69
0.74
2.23
3.35
21.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2026-03-11
2026-01-23
Health
F0605
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
D
2026-03-11
2026-01-23
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2026-03-11
2026-01-23
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2026-03-11
2026-01-23
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2026-03-11
2026-01-23
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-03-11
2026-01-23
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2026-03-11
2026-01-23
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2026-03-11
2026-01-23
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2026-03-11
2026-01-23
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-03-11
2026-01-23
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
F
2026-03-11
2025-01-23
Health
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2025-03-06
2025-01-23
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-03-06
2025-01-23
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2025-03-06
2025-01-23
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2025-03-06
2025-01-23
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2025-03-06
2025-01-23
Health
F0660
Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs.
D
2025-03-06
2025-01-23
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-03-06
2025-01-23
Health
F0742
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder.
D
2025-03-06
2025-01-23
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
D
2025-03-06
2025-01-23
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-03-06
2025-01-23
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-03-06
2025-01-23
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
F
2025-03-06
2024-02-12
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2024-03-06
2024-02-12
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-03-06
2024-02-12
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
E
2024-03-06
2024-02-12
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-03-06
2024-02-12
Health · complaint
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
C
2024-03-06
2024-02-12
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2024-03-06
2024-02-12
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-03-06
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
36
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PC DE OPCOS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
SILVER LAKE REALTY DE LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
SILVER LAKE REALTY DE LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
AURORA GUARDIAN HOLDCO II CO-BORROWER, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-30
current
pecos_ownership
AURORA GUARDIAN HOLDCO II, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-30
current
pecos_ownership
AURORA GUARDIAN II REALTY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-30
current
pecos_ownership
AURORA GUARDIAN PARTNERS II LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-30
current
pecos_ownership
BURNS, DONNA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
COX, VICKIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
HILLSIDE CENTER REALTY, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-30
current
pecos_ownership
J & R FAMILY INVESTMENTS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-30
current
pecos_ownership
L FRIEDMAN 2018 FAMILY TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-30
current
pecos_ownership
L FRIEDMAN FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-30
current
pecos_ownership
LANDAU FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-30
current
pecos_ownership
M FRIEDMAN 2018 FAMILY TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-30
current
pecos_ownership
MANSFIELD, MELISSA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
PC WTA ACQUISITION LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
PC WTA MULTI-STATE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
PC WTA OPCO HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
PEACE CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC (DE)
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
R&J FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-07-30
current
pecos_ownership
RASTOGI, RITU
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
SILVERBERG, NISANEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, STEVEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-05-29
current
pecos_ownership
SMS 2021 TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEIN, SHALOM
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELLTOWER INC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2021-07-30
current
pecos_ownership
SILVER LAKE REALTY DE LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-07-01
ended 2023-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
SILVER LAKE REALTY DE LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2021-06-01
ended 2022-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
SHALOM STEIN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONNA BURNS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-04-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA MANSFIELD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NISANEL SILVERBERG
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RITU RASTOGI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN SMITH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-05-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICKIE COX
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$2,972,255
$587,943
—
—
—
2
propco
2024-06-30
$1,861,241
$1,296,053
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-06-30
$1,838,756
$1,310,407
—
—
—
2
propco
2022-06-30
$1,436,887
$1,037,960
—
—
—
2
propco
2021-05-31
$1,354,306
—
$641,632
$460,401
$224,054
5
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 10001
acs median gross
0
$633
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 10001
fmr
0
$1,158
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 10001
acs median gross
1
$1,033
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 10001
fmr
1
$1,165
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 10001
acs median gross
2
$1,295
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 10001
fmr
2
$1,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 10001
acs median gross
3
$1,616
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 10001
fmr
3
$2,044
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 10001
acs median gross
4
$1,982
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 10001
fmr
4
$2,285
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 10001
acs median gross
5
$1,838
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 10001
acs median gross
$1,354
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 10001
acs recent mover gross
$1,631
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19904
acs median gross
0
$893
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19904
acs median gross
1
$1,248
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19904
acs median gross
2
$1,363
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19904
acs median gross
3
$1,509
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19904
acs median gross
4
$1,750
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19904
acs median gross
5
$2,150
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19904
acs median gross
$1,370
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19904
acs recent mover gross
$1,598
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 19904
payment standard 110
0
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19904
payment standard 90
0
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19904
safmr
0
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19904
payment standard 110
1
$1,221
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19904
payment standard 90
1
$999
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19904
safmr
1
$1,110
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19904
payment standard 110
2
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19904
payment standard 90
2
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19904
safmr
2
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19904
payment standard 110
3
$2,145
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19904
payment standard 90
3
$1,755
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19904
safmr
3
$1,950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19904
payment standard 110
4
$2,398
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19904
payment standard 90
4
$1,962
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19904
safmr
4
$2,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.