Composite
89.8 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 84.5 | 81.5 | 0.30 | 0.4286 | 36.21 | in index |
| chow risk | 90.0 | 55.0 | 0.15 | 0.2143 | 19.29 | in index |
| staffing risk | 30.7 | 30.8 | 0.25 | 0.3571 | 10.96 | in index |
| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 8 chains | ELLENBOGEN MOSS | 21 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 5 chains | APEX GLOBAL SOLUTIONS LLC | 7 facilities |
| connection | Owner fleet enforcement cluster | 50% fined | APEX GLOBAL SOLUTIONS LLC | 8 facilities |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 55.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 81.5 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 30.8 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| regulatory risk | 81.4 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 81.4 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 30.8 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 30.8 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 2.41 | -1.61 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.81 | -0.33 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.64 | -0.12 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 4.00 | +0.69 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 10.04 | -0.56 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.61 | +0.26 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 2.41 | -0.26 | |
| Occupancy | 0.81 | -0.26 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | DE median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.64 | 3.64 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.24 | 0.51 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.59 | 3.58 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.66 | 3.69 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 68.9 | 3.64 | 0.24 | 1.07 | 2.32 | 3.59 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 74.3 | 3.25 | 0.19 | 0.98 | 2.08 | 3.16 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 70.9 | 3.46 | 0.17 | 1.03 | 2.26 | 3.34 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 74.8 | 3.34 | 0.21 | 0.95 | 2.18 | 3.29 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 73.1 | 3.35 | 0.20 | 1.01 | 2.13 | 3.34 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 71.8 | 3.56 | 0.35 | 0.90 | 2.30 | 3.50 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 62.9 | 3.75 | 0.46 | 0.92 | 2.38 | 3.70 | 4.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 57.5 | 3.75 | 0.67 | 0.70 | 2.39 | 3.63 | 3.2% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 58.4 | 3.56 | 0.95 | 0.41 | 2.20 | 3.55 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 56.9 | 3.51 | 0.94 | 0.37 | 2.20 | 3.51 | 0.1% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 56.8 | 3.57 | 0.91 | 0.38 | 2.28 | 3.53 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 56.0 | 3.58 | 0.90 | 0.42 | 2.25 | 3.48 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 56.6 | 3.61 | 0.89 | 0.47 | 2.24 | 3.52 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 51.5 | 3.96 | 0.88 | 0.60 | 2.48 | 3.90 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 52.3 | 3.97 | 0.89 | 0.56 | 2.52 | 3.89 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 49.3 | 4.22 | 0.89 | 0.70 | 2.63 | 4.14 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | Fine | $22,925 | CMS provider data |
| 2025-04-11 | Fine | $9,113 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-12-02 | Fine | $10,824 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | — |
| 2026-04-23 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | — |
| 2026-04-23 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | — |
| 2026-02-24 | Health · complaint | F0627 | Ensure the transfer/discharge meets the resident's needs/preferences and that the resident is prepared for a safe transfer/discharge. | J | 2026-03-23 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health | F0568 | Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home. | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health | F0583 | Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential. | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health | F0690 | Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections. | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | E | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | C | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | D | 2025-04-10 |
| 2025-02-19 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2025-04-10 |
| 2024-12-02 | Health · complaint | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2025-01-20 |
| 2024-12-02 | Health · complaint | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2025-01-20 |
| 2024-12-02 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | D | 2025-01-20 |
| 2024-12-02 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | G | 2025-01-20 |
| 2024-02-23 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2024-04-01 |
| 2024-02-23 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | E | 2024-04-01 |
| 2024-02-23 | Health | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | D | 2024-04-01 |
| 2024-02-23 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2024-04-01 |
| 2024-02-23 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2024-04-01 |
| 2024-02-23 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-04-01 |
| 2024-02-23 | Health | F0791 | Provide or obtain dental services for each resident. | D | 2024-04-01 |
| 2024-02-23 | Health | F0802 | Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service. | E | 2024-04-01 |
| 2024-02-23 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2024-04-01 |
| 2024-02-23 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | E | 2024-04-01 |
| 2022-09-26 | Health | F0679 | Provide activities to meet all resident's needs. | D | 2022-10-18 |
| 2022-09-26 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2022-10-18 |
| 2022-09-26 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2022-10-18 |
| 2022-09-26 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | E | 2022-10-18 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTRC HOLDINGS LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2024-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| APEX GLOBAL SOLUTIONS LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| AYSAN TR | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2024-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| COPPER DE TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2024-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ELLENBOGEN, MOSS | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GOLD DE TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2024-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OLOWO, ABIMBOLA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PA & DE NOBLE PARENTCO LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2024-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SILVER DE TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2024-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STAR DE I HOLDINGS LLC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2024-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STAR DE I TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2024-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STUDD, ANNE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STUDD, ANNE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-07 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BUAH TRUST | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 5% | 2024-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ABIMBOLA OLOWO | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2024-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ANNE STUDD | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-07 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ANNE STUDD | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MOSS ELLENBOGEN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-01 | — | BAY TERRACE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER LLC | COURTLAND MANOR INC. | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | OCEAN GROVE POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 181 | OCEAN GROVE POST ACUTE LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | EVERGREEN POST ACUTE | — | — | — | 151 | EVERGREEN POST ACUTE LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | EXCELCARE AT NEWARK LLC | — | — | — | 101 | EXCELCARE AT NEWARK LLC |
| 2024-10-01 | DELAWARE BAY REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER | — | — | — | 139 | GEORGETOWN SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2024-03-01 | BAY TERRACE REHABILITATION AND HEALTH CENTERthis facility | — | — | — | 85 | BAY TERRACE REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER LLC |
| 2023-08-01 | WILMINGTON NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 138 | WILMINGTON SNF OPERATOR LLC |
| 2023-08-01 | PIKE CREEK NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 177 | PIKE CREEK SNF OPERATOR LLC |
| 2021-06-01 | COMPLETE CARE AT BRACKENVILLE LLC | — | — | — | 104 | COMPLETE CARE AT BRACKENVILLE LLC |
| 2021-06-01 | COMPLETE CARE AT HILLSIDE LLC | — | — | — | 106 | COMPLETE CARE AT HILLSIDE LLC |
| 2021-06-01 | COMPLETE CARE AT SILVER LAKE LLC | — | — | — | 120 | COMPLETE CARE AT SILVER LAKE LLC |
| 2021-05-13 | Coral Springs Rehab & Healthcare | — | — | — | 169 | SPRINGS REHABILITATION AT BRANDYWINE LLC |
| 2020-01-01 | ENCORE AT WEST MEADOW | — | — | — | 110 | SNH DEL TENANT LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 10001 | acs median gross | 0 | $633 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 10001 | fmr | 0 | $1,158 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 10001 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,033 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 10001 | fmr | 1 | $1,165 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 10001 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,295 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 10001 | fmr | 2 | $1,470 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 10001 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,616 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 10001 | fmr | 3 | $2,044 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 10001 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,982 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 10001 | fmr | 4 | $2,285 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 10001 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,838 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 10001 | acs median gross | $1,354 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 10001 | acs recent mover gross | $1,631 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 19901 | acs median gross | 1 | $934 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 19901 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,200 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 19901 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,784 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 19901 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,939 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 19901 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,685 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 19901 | acs median gross | $1,398 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 19901 | acs recent mover gross | $1,597 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 19901 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,331 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 19901 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,089 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 19901 | safmr | 0 | $1,210 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 19901 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,342 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 19901 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,098 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 19901 | safmr | 1 | $1,220 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 19901 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,694 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 19901 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,386 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 19901 | safmr | 2 | $1,540 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 19901 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $2,354 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 19901 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,926 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 19901 | safmr | 3 | $2,140 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 19901 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,629 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 19901 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $2,151 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 19901 | safmr | 4 | $2,390 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |