Reads as: riskier than 34.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
18 chains
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
286 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
18 chains
CTR PARTNERSHIP LP
99 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
BURNAM SOON
335 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
17 chains
KEETCH CHAD
283 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
15 chains
CARETRUST REIT INC
96 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
CARETRUST GP LLC
89 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
ID median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.59
3.34
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.47
0.51
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.47
3.05
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.64
3.43
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
51.5
2.59
0.47
0.64
1.48
2.47
0.0%
2025Q3
92
53.9
2.60
0.48
0.59
1.52
2.24
0.0%
2025Q2
91
51.9
2.66
0.58
0.52
1.55
2.23
0.0%
2025Q1
90
53.2
2.57
0.59
0.49
1.48
2.07
0.0%
2024Q4
92
54.4
2.51
0.60
0.50
1.41
2.14
0.0%
2024Q3
92
52.1
2.79
0.59
0.54
1.66
2.18
0.0%
2024Q2
91
52.4
2.80
0.63
0.47
1.70
2.30
0.0%
2024Q1
91
51.7
3.03
0.68
0.50
1.85
2.59
0.0%
2023Q4
92
54.6
3.02
0.71
0.39
1.93
2.71
0.0%
2023Q3
92
55.1
3.10
0.63
0.52
1.95
2.65
0.0%
2023Q2
91
54.1
3.08
0.72
0.41
1.95
2.72
0.0%
2023Q1
90
56.4
2.62
0.71
0.37
1.53
2.25
0.0%
2022Q4
92
56.7
2.65
0.79
0.24
1.62
2.52
0.0%
2022Q3
92
55.6
2.83
0.74
0.26
1.82
2.67
0.0%
2022Q2
91
55.5
2.97
0.80
0.22
1.95
2.69
0.0%
2022Q1
90
53.3
3.20
0.79
0.31
2.10
2.80
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
13
D × 9E × 3F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-08-21
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-21
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-21
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-21
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-21
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
F
2025-09-30
2025-08-21
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
D
2025-09-30
2025-08-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2025-09-30
2025-08-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-09-30
2019-06-07
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
E
2019-06-27
2019-06-07
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2019-06-27
2019-06-07
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2019-06-27
2019-06-07
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2019-06-27
2019-06-07
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-06-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
26
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ALLEN, DANIEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-10
current
pecos_ownership
ALLEN, DANIEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-02-26
current
pecos_ownership
BURNAM, SOON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-10
current
pecos_ownership
BURNAM, SOON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARETRUST GP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARETRUST REIT INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
CONDRA, MELISSA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
CTR PARTNERSHIP LP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
ENSIGN SERVICES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
FARNSWORTH, STEPHEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-09-09
current
pecos_ownership
HAWKINS, ISAIAH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KEETCH, CHAD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
LOWELL LAKE HEALTH HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
PORT, BARRY
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-10
current
pecos_ownership
SATO, AMI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-09
current
pecos_ownership
PENNANT HEALTHCARE LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2014-09-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2012-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA CONDRA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
0%
2017-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMI SATO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-09-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAD KEETCH
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL ALLEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-02-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL ALLEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ISAIAH HAWKINS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOON BURNAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SOON BURNAM
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN FARNSWORTH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-09-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$896,920
—
$639,958
—
$1,009
3
—
2023-12-31
$750,537
—
$527,706
—
$1,604
3
—
2022-12-31
$742,962
—
$557,099
—
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$713,833
—
$394,530
—
$4,622
3
—
2020-12-31
$607,378
—
$406,979
—
$6,425
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
28
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 16073
fmr
0
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16073
acs median gross
1
$346
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16073
fmr
1
$1,381
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16073
acs median gross
2
$682
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16073
fmr
2
$1,655
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16073
acs median gross
3
$1,247
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16073
fmr
3
$2,318
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16073
fmr
4
$2,772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 16073
acs median gross
$821
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 16073
acs recent mover gross
$1,119
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83628
acs median gross
3
$1,201
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83628
acs median gross
$1,059
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 83628
acs recent mover gross
$1,199
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 83628
payment standard 110
0
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83628
payment standard 90
0
$1,053
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83628
safmr
0
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83628
payment standard 110
1
$1,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83628
payment standard 90
1
$1,251
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83628
safmr
1
$1,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83628
payment standard 110
2
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83628
payment standard 90
2
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83628
safmr
2
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83628
payment standard 110
3
$2,552
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83628
payment standard 90
3
$2,088
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83628
safmr
3
$2,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83628
payment standard 110
4
$3,058
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83628
payment standard 90
4
$2,502
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 83628
safmr
4
$2,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.