505 William Thomason Byway, Leitchfield, KY 42754 · CCN 185177 · chain ENCORE INVESTORS 2 LLC
Composite
16.8 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
72
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 16.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
5
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
FISCHEL MAYER
45 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
RUBENSTEIN DAVID
31 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
LANDAU FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
30 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
J R FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
30 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MCINTOSH SARAH
9 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
KY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.01
3.11
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.31
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.78
3.01
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.10
3.16
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
70.4
3.01
0.31
0.58
2.12
2.78
0.0%
2025Q3
92
66.2
3.11
0.33
0.64
2.14
2.94
0.0%
2025Q2
91
67.9
3.05
0.36
0.57
2.13
2.93
0.0%
2025Q1
90
69.7
2.87
0.31
0.50
2.05
2.79
0.0%
2024Q4
92
67.2
2.78
0.32
0.47
1.99
2.57
0.0%
2024Q3
92
67.1
2.50
0.34
0.47
1.70
2.30
0.0%
2024Q2
91
69.3
2.55
0.27
0.47
1.81
2.37
0.0%
2024Q1
91
68.6
2.39
0.24
0.50
1.65
2.22
0.0%
2023Q4
92
66.2
3.02
0.25
0.54
2.22
2.71
0.0%
2023Q3
92
66.1
3.40
0.28
0.56
2.56
3.15
0.0%
2023Q2
91
65.4
3.59
0.45
0.54
2.60
3.28
0.0%
2023Q1
90
65.0
3.52
0.34
0.61
2.57
3.20
0.0%
2022Q4
92
65.1
3.49
0.41
0.52
2.56
3.22
0.0%
2022Q3
92
68.2
3.30
0.38
0.52
2.40
2.84
0.0%
2022Q2
91
66.3
3.56
0.46
0.50
2.60
3.25
2.7%
2022Q1
90
68.5
3.26
0.57
0.46
2.23
2.93
2.3%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-01-08
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
52
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ENCORE PARENT HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
505 WILLIAM THOMASON BYWAY REALTY LLC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
BALDWIN CPAS PLLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
BALT M4 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
BLOOM, DAVID
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
BUTLER, LEON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
CBRE CAPITAL MARKETS INC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
ELDRIDGE, TIMOTHY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
ENCORE HEALTH PARTNERS 2 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-16
current
pecos_ownership
ENCORE HEALTH PARTNERS 2 LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
ENCORE INVESTORS 2 LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
ENCORE REALTY 2 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
FISCHEL, MAYER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
FISHER, MYRON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
FOLEY, LISA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
FULKERSON, MELINDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
GEFNER FAMILY HOLDING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
GEFNER, DAVID
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
GRINSPAN, ELI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
GRINSPAN, ISAAC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
HARGIS & ASSOCIATES, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HARGIS, FORWOOD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HATCHER, CHRISTOPHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
J & R FAMILY INVESTMENTS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
J&R KC DERBY KY FAMILY INVESTMENTS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
KC DERBY KY JV LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
KC DERBY KY PARENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
KC DERBY KY PARTNERS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
LANDAU FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
MCINTOSH, SARAH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
OVERBEY, BETH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
PERIGROVE 1034 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
RUBENSTEIN, DAVID
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
STONE, KELLY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
ZOBERMAN, SARAH
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-10-20
current
pecos_ownership
ELI GRINSPAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2023-10-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MAYER FISCHL
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2023-10-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID BLOOM
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2023-10-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH ZOBERMAN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2023-10-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BETH OVERBEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTOPHER HATCHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID GEFNER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID RUBENSTEIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FORWOOD HARGIS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ISAAC GRINSPAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KELLY STONE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEON BUTLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA FOLEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELINDA FULKERSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-10-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MYRON FISHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH MCINTOSH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY ELDRIDGE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-10-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,382,006
$957,874
—
—
—
2
—
2023-12-31
$217,188
$140,706
—
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
30
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 21085
fmr
0
$708
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21085
acs median gross
1
$409
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21085
fmr
1
$712
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21085
acs median gross
2
$659
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21085
fmr
2
$866
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21085
acs median gross
3
$825
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21085
fmr
3
$1,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21085
fmr
4
$1,209
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21085
acs median gross
$658
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21085
acs recent mover gross
$1,047
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42754
acs median gross
1
$445
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42754
acs median gross
2
$667
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42754
acs median gross
3
$757
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42754
acs median gross
$653
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42754
acs recent mover gross
$1,037
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 42754
payment standard 110
0
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42754
payment standard 90
0
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42754
safmr
0
$800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42754
payment standard 110
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42754
payment standard 90
1
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42754
safmr
1
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42754
payment standard 110
2
$1,166
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42754
payment standard 90
2
$954
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42754
safmr
2
$1,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42754
payment standard 110
3
$1,408
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42754
payment standard 90
3
$1,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42754
safmr
3
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42754
payment standard 110
4
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42754
payment standard 90
4
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42754
safmr
4
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.