1253 Lake Barkley Drive, Kuttawa, KY 42055 · CCN 185318 · chain JML 1836 HOLDINGS LLC
Composite
42.1 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
65
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 42.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
12
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.9 vs natl
ROTH CO LLP
40 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.1 vs natl
LUSTBADER ANDREW
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.6 vs natl
CARVER DILLION
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.9 vs natl
BOTWINICK MICHAEL
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.6 vs natl
LUSTBADER JONATHAN
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.1 vs natl
MJL 2024 FAMILY TRUST
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.0 vs natl
JNL 2024 FAM TR
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.5 vs natl
GOTTESMAN DANIEL
26 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
LTC CONSULTING SERVICES LLC
18 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
GOTTESMAN DANIEL
24 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
ROTH CO LLP
35 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
ROTH CO LLP
40 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
KY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.83
3.11
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.15
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.79
3.01
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.84
3.16
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
54.2
2.83
0.15
0.70
1.98
2.79
0.0%
2025Q3
92
50.9
2.66
0.22
0.53
1.91
2.53
0.0%
2025Q2
91
46.5
2.63
0.24
0.56
1.83
2.45
17.8%
2025Q1
90
44.9
2.64
0.25
0.51
1.88
2.66
15.0%
2024Q4
92
50.3
2.69
0.31
0.60
1.77
2.56
13.8%
2024Q3
92
49.5
2.49
0.29
0.52
1.68
2.44
4.6%
2024Q2
91
48.6
2.41
0.33
0.53
1.56
2.43
0.0%
2024Q1
91
49.4
2.48
0.31
0.57
1.61
2.39
0.0%
2023Q4
92
48.9
2.59
0.36
0.43
1.80
2.35
0.0%
2023Q3
92
47.0
2.76
0.42
0.43
1.91
2.49
0.0%
2023Q2
91
48.3
2.91
0.37
0.37
2.16
2.66
0.1%
2023Q1
90
49.0
3.23
0.49
0.32
2.42
3.00
0.0%
2022Q4
92
47.1
2.81
0.38
0.21
2.21
2.77
0.0%
2022Q3
92
51.2
2.39
0.33
0.35
1.71
2.17
7.2%
2022Q2
91
48.7
2.49
0.34
0.45
1.70
2.08
2.5%
2022Q1
90
47.1
2.40
0.57
0.25
1.58
2.23
24.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
12
B × 1C × 1D × 8E × 1F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-04-24
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
C
2025-05-15
2025-04-24
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2025-05-15
2025-04-24
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-05-15
2025-04-24
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-05-15
2020-02-14
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-14
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-14
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
B
2020-03-20
2020-02-14
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-14
Health
F0800
Provide each resident with a nourishing, palatable, well-balanced diet that meets his or her daily nutritional and special dietary needs.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-14
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2020-03-20
2020-02-14
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2020-03-20
2020-02-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2020-03-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
39
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ARMSTRONG, TROY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BOTWINICK, MICHAEL
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BTF KY HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CARVER, DILLION
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EPKY TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOTTESMAN, DANIEL
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HALL, MICHELLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-06-16
current
pecos_ownership
HARTLEY, BETH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HIKY TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HVH KY 10 SNF CONSULTING LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ICONTRUST, LLC
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
IDELS, SHIMON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JML 1836 HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JNL 2024 FAM TR
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOEL A SCHWARTZ 2017 FAMILY TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KY 10 SNF OPERATIONS HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KY10 SNF OPCO MANAGER LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LIEBERMAN, JOSEPH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LION KY HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LTC CONSULTING SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LUSTBADER, ANDREW
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LUSTBADER, JONATHAN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LYON HEALTHCARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MJL 2024 FAMILY TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROTH & CO, LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SIKY TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SSKY TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TZIPORAH SCHWARTZ 2017 FAMILY TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
YMB HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL BOTWINICK
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW LUSTBADER
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BETH HARTLEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL GOTTESMAN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DILLION CARVER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONATHAN LUSTBADER
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH LIEBERMAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE HALL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHIMON IDELS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TROY ARMSTRONG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
2
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2021-06-30
$245,634
—
$5,139
—
—
4
—
2020-12-31
$427,563
—
$17,277
—
—
4
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
29
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 21143
fmr
0
$619
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21143
acs median gross
1
$468
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21143
fmr
1
$660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21143
acs median gross
2
$725
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21143
fmr
2
$866
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21143
acs median gross
3
$1,049
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21143
fmr
3
$1,204
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21143
fmr
4
$1,453
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21143
acs median gross
5
$1,254
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21143
acs median gross
$747
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42055
acs median gross
2
$667
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42055
acs median gross
3
$671
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42055
acs median gross
$684
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 42055
acs recent mover gross
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 42055
payment standard 110
0
$682
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42055
payment standard 90
0
$558
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42055
safmr
0
$620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42055
payment standard 110
1
$726
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42055
payment standard 90
1
$594
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42055
safmr
1
$660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42055
payment standard 110
2
$957
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42055
payment standard 90
2
$783
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42055
safmr
2
$870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42055
payment standard 110
3
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42055
payment standard 90
3
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42055
safmr
3
$1,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42055
payment standard 110
4
$1,595
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42055
payment standard 90
4
$1,305
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 42055
safmr
4
$1,450
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.