Composite
73.8 / 100 percentile
Screener / 425075
C
Lila Doyle Post Acute
snfSC
101 Lila Doyle Drive, Seneca, SC 29672 · CCN 425075 · chain THE ENSIGN GROUP INC
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
120
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 73.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model4ML signals3Components10CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing15Penalties1Deficiencies8Licensure0Ownership19Related party3Transactions1Comps12Market rent31
Composite explanation
4| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 68.9 | 47.2 | 0.30 | 0.2857 | 19.69 | in index |
| financial risk | 64.1 | 55.0 | 0.30 | 0.2857 | 18.31 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 56.2 | 46.2 | 0.30 | 0.2857 | 16.06 | in index |
| chow risk | 25.2 | 25.0 | 0.15 | 0.1429 | 3.60 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 17 chains | BURNAM SOON | 335 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 12 chains | THE ENSIGN GROUP INC | 123 facilities |
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 11 chains | STANDARD BEARER HEALTHCARE OP LP | 83 facilities |
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Component scores and registry models
10| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 47.1 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| financial risk | 55.0 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 46.2 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| financial risk | 52.6 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 58.7 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 46.0 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 46.0 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
0.0%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
15.3
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 3.74 | -1.48 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | -0.87 | |
| Chain size (log) | 5.46 | +0.76 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | -0.15 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.79 | -0.15 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.0%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
10.1
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 5.46 | -1.98 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 1.00 | +1.24 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 3.74 | -0.24 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.79 | -0.24 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 1.00 | +0.23 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15| 2025Q3 HPRD | This facility | SC median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.79 | 3.32 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.58 | 0.33 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.49 | 3.05 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.90 | 3.44 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 86.5 | 3.79 | 0.58 | 1.06 | 2.14 | 3.49 | 10.3% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 86.1 | 3.73 | 0.39 | 1.24 | 2.10 | 3.40 | 8.6% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 87.1 | 3.64 | 0.35 | 1.24 | 2.06 | 3.43 | 18.2% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 84.7 | 3.69 | 0.50 | 1.06 | 2.13 | 3.43 | 12.4% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 86.4 | 3.94 | 0.42 | 1.15 | 2.37 | 3.43 | 8.2% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 89.3 | 3.69 | 0.33 | 1.17 | 2.19 | 3.23 | 13.9% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 98.6 | 3.66 | 0.27 | 1.22 | 2.18 | 3.31 | 30.1% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 89.6 | 3.82 | 0.23 | 1.24 | 2.35 | 3.68 | 24.9% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 85.1 | 3.64 | 0.23 | 1.16 | 2.25 | 3.38 | 12.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 87.1 | 3.80 | 0.21 | 1.19 | 2.40 | 3.35 | 6.2% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 91.3 | 3.86 | 0.18 | 1.40 | 2.29 | 3.46 | 17.1% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 86.2 | 2.36 | 0.10 | 0.92 | 1.34 | 1.90 | 17.3% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 83.5 | 4.00 | 0.36 | 1.30 | 2.35 | 3.73 | 45.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 83.2 | 3.94 | 0.50 | 1.11 | 2.33 | 3.67 | 39.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 81.4 | 4.03 | 0.43 | 1.33 | 2.26 | 3.66 | 36.9% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
1| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-05 | Fine | $9,318 | CMS provider data |
Total fines on record: $9,318
Deficiencies
8D × 6G × 1J × 1
deficiencies by survey year
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2026-02-25 |
| 2023-11-05 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | J | 2023-11-24 |
| 2023-11-05 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2023-11-24 |
| 2023-07-13 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2023-07-25 |
| 2023-07-13 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-07-25 |
| 2023-07-13 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-07-25 |
| 2023-07-13 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2023-07-25 |
| 2023-07-13 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | D | 2023-07-25 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
19| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BURNAM, SOON | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2022-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HARTWELL HEALTH HOLDINGS LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2022-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PETERSON, FORREST | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2022-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SATO, AMI | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-09-09 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SMITH, STEPHEN | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2023-11-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SMITH, STEPHEN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-09 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STANDARD BEARER HEALTHCARE OP LP | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2022-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| THATCHER, BRENT | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-09 | current | pecos_ownership |
| THATCHER, BRENT | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2022-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| THE ENSIGN GROUP INC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2022-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BRENT THATCHER | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | 100% | 2022-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| HOPEWELL HEALTHCARE, INC. | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2023-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| THE ENSIGN GROUP INC | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2022-07-14 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| AMI SATO | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2024-09-09 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| FORREST PETERSON | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2022-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SOON BURNAM | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2022-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BRENT THATCHER | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-09 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STEPHEN SMITH | MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY | — | 2023-11-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| STEPHEN SMITH | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-09 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
1| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-01 | — | KINGSTON FALLS HEALTHCARE LLC | PRISMA HEALTH-UPSTATE | chow |
Comparable trades — SC snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-01 | Oak Hollow of Georgetown Rehabilitation Center LLC | — | — | — | 84 | GEORGETOWN OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-05-01 | Oak Hollow Of Sumter Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 96 | SUMTER OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2025-01-01 | Veteran Village | — | — | — | 52 | STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA COMPTROLLER GENERAL |
| 2024-08-01 | White Oak Manor - York | — | — | — | 109 | NHC HEALTHCARE/YORK LLC |
| 2024-06-01 | St Andrews Operator, LLC | — | — | — | 108 | ST ANDREWS OPERATOR LLC |
| 2024-04-01 | The Oaks Post Acute | — | — | — | 122 | ORANGEBURG COMMUNITY HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2024-01-31 | Honorage Nursing Center | — | — | — | 88 | WILSON SENIOR CARE HONORAGE LLC |
| 2024-01-09 | Forest Acres Post Acute | — | — | — | 132 | FOREST ACRES COMMUNITY HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2024-01-09 | Union Post Acute | — | — | — | 88 | UNION COMMUNITY HEALTHCARE, LLC |
| 2024-01-01 | Lakelands Nursing And Rehabilitation Center | — | — | — | 69 | SELF REGIONAL HEALTHCARE |
| 2023-09-13 | Heartland Health Care Center - Greenville East | — | — | — | 132 | BEREA COMMUNITY HEALTHCARE LLC |
| 2023-09-01 | Ashley River Healthcare | — | — | — | 125 | ORANGE GROVE HEALTHCARE INC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 45073 | fmr | 0 | $712 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 45073 | acs median gross | 1 | $587 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 45073 | fmr | 1 | $717 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 45073 | acs median gross | 2 | $863 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 45073 | fmr | 2 | $941 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 45073 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,029 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 45073 | fmr | 3 | $1,153 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 45073 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,014 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 45073 | fmr | 4 | $1,337 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 45073 | acs median gross | $881 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 45073 | acs recent mover gross | $1,271 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 29672 | acs median gross | 1 | $658 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 29672 | acs median gross | 2 | $873 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 29672 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,084 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 29672 | acs median gross | 4 | $964 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 29672 | acs median gross | $924 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 29672 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $836 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 29672 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $684 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 29672 | safmr | 0 | $760 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 29672 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $836 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 29672 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $684 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 29672 | safmr | 1 | $760 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 29672 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,100 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 29672 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $900 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 29672 | safmr | 2 | $1,000 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 29672 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,342 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 29672 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,098 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 29672 | safmr | 3 | $1,220 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 29672 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,562 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 29672 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,278 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 29672 | safmr | 4 | $1,420 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.