Reads as: riskier than 57.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MURRAY JASON
40 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
HANCOCK MARK
158 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
SC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.91
3.32
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.35
0.33
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.81
3.05
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.95
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
94.6
2.91
0.35
0.83
1.73
2.81
12.7%
2025Q3
92
96.4
2.94
0.32
0.91
1.71
2.78
10.5%
2025Q2
91
93.2
3.08
0.29
0.98
1.81
2.83
19.7%
2025Q1
90
88.7
3.38
0.50
0.89
2.00
2.92
18.4%
2024Q4
92
92.0
3.04
0.51
0.72
1.81
2.56
19.4%
2024Q3
92
92.8
3.10
0.60
0.65
1.86
2.57
16.9%
2024Q2
91
89.9
3.25
0.55
0.79
1.91
2.80
22.8%
2024Q1
91
94.1
3.18
0.43
0.79
1.95
2.76
16.4%
2023Q4
92
94.3
3.19
0.47
0.79
1.92
2.68
0.0%
2023Q3
92
92.3
3.17
0.47
0.76
1.94
2.76
0.0%
2023Q2
91
92.8
3.42
0.29
0.74
2.40
3.33
0.0%
2023Q1
90
93.6
3.40
0.25
0.77
2.38
3.39
0.0%
2022Q4
92
92.0
3.59
0.22
0.86
2.52
3.51
0.0%
2022Q3
92
92.1
3.40
0.12
0.77
2.51
3.40
0.0%
2022Q2
91
87.5
4.17
0.11
1.05
3.02
3.87
0.0%
2022Q1
90
90.0
3.30
0.11
0.74
2.45
3.33
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-05-24
2023-12-29
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-01-18
2023-12-29
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-01-18
2023-10-09
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
J
2023-10-20
2023-10-09
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2023-10-20
2023-10-09
Health · complaint
F0808
Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law.
J
2023-10-20
2021-12-10
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2021-12-20
2021-12-10
Health
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2021-12-20
2021-12-10
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2021-12-20
2021-12-10
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2021-12-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PALMETTO COMMUNITY HEALTHCARE, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-06-29
current
pecos_ownership
HALL, JORDAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
HALL, JORDAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-09-21
current
pecos_ownership
HANCOCK, MARK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-06-29
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-06-29
current
pecos_ownership
MURRAY, JASON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-06-29
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PROVIDENCE GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2021-06-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2021-06-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2021-06-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-06-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-06-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JORDAN HALL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SC-GA PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
SC-GA PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-08-31
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$524,633
—
$524,633
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$623,821
—
$623,821
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$574,969
—
$574,969
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$243,947
—
$249,016
—
—
1
—
2021-08-31
$1,247,954
$533,951
—
$241,879
$72,968
22
propco
2020-12-31
$1,880,959
$809,957
—
$362,818
$109,452
24
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2021-09-01
—
EASLEY SKILLED NURSING, LLC
SC-GA2018FLEETWOOD REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER LLC
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 45077
acs median gross
0
$847
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45077
fmr
0
$1,166
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45077
acs median gross
1
$879
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45077
fmr
1
$1,221
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45077
acs median gross
2
$967
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45077
fmr
2
$1,339
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45077
acs median gross
3
$1,071
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45077
fmr
3
$1,612
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45077
acs median gross
4
$957
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45077
fmr
4
$1,943
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45077
acs median gross
$972
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45077
acs recent mover gross
$1,123
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29640
acs median gross
0
$987
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29640
acs median gross
1
$1,030
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29640
acs median gross
2
$922
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29640
acs median gross
3
$1,115
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29640
acs median gross
4
$1,195
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29640
acs median gross
$1,005
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29640
acs recent mover gross
$1,476
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 29640
payment standard 110
0
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29640
payment standard 90
0
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29640
safmr
0
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29640
payment standard 110
1
$1,177
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29640
payment standard 90
1
$963
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29640
safmr
1
$1,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29640
payment standard 110
2
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29640
payment standard 90
2
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29640
safmr
2
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29640
payment standard 110
3
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29640
payment standard 90
3
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29640
safmr
3
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29640
payment standard 110
4
$1,892
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29640
payment standard 90
4
$1,548
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29640
safmr
4
$1,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.