Reads as: riskier than 19.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
HANEY DAVID
11 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
SC median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.67
3.32
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.22
0.33
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.36
3.05
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.79
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
100.5
3.67
0.22
1.07
2.38
3.36
0.0%
2025Q3
92
104.2
3.64
0.28
0.99
2.37
3.39
0.0%
2025Q2
91
109.5
3.33
0.21
0.93
2.19
3.11
0.0%
2025Q1
90
101.7
3.32
0.25
0.97
2.10
3.12
0.0%
2024Q4
92
92.8
3.68
0.27
1.06
2.35
3.39
0.0%
2024Q3
92
96.3
3.56
0.27
1.01
2.27
3.27
0.0%
2024Q2
91
101.2
3.39
0.22
0.98
2.19
3.19
0.0%
2024Q1
91
103.2
3.42
0.22
1.01
2.19
3.23
0.0%
2023Q4
92
104.3
3.74
0.20
1.05
2.49
3.57
0.0%
2023Q3
92
100.0
3.65
0.16
1.09
2.40
3.52
0.0%
2023Q2
91
101.6
3.39
0.13
1.12
2.14
3.38
0.0%
2023Q1
90
103.4
3.62
0.17
1.14
2.31
3.54
0.0%
2022Q4
92
107.9
3.61
0.16
1.17
2.29
3.54
6.0%
2022Q3
92
104.5
3.59
0.14
1.15
2.30
3.51
8.9%
2022Q2
91
96.7
3.68
0.18
1.20
2.31
3.58
8.0%
2022Q1
90
96.4
3.61
0.28
1.16
2.18
3.57
6.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
5
D × 4F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-12-06
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-01-05
2023-07-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-08-21
2021-06-10
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2021-06-28
2021-06-10
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2021-06-28
2021-06-10
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2021-06-28
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
30
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
WHITE OAK MANOR INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2002-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CECIL, BETH
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
CECIL, DOROTHY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
FEESER, JENI
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
CECIL, DOUGLAS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
19%
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
CECIL, OLIVER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
18%
2022-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARBER, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2002-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BERNARDO, MICHAEL
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
CECIL, BETH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2002-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CECIL, DOROTHY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2002-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CECIL, DOUGLAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2002-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
CECIL, OLIVER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2002-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
FEESER, JENI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2002-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
HANEY, DAVID
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2002-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHIELDS, MELISSA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
WHITE OAK MANAGEMENT, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2002-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MELISSA SHIELDS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
25%
2024-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BETH CECIL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOROTHY CECIL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENI FEESER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS CECIL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
19%
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OLIVER CECIL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
18%
2022-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BETH CECIL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
5%
2002-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOROTHY CECIL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
5%
2002-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOUGLAS CECIL
CORPORATE OFFICER
5%
2002-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENI FEESER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
5%
2002-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN BARBER
CORPORATE OFFICER
5%
2002-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL BERNARDO
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
5%
2024-02-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
OLIVER CECIL
CORPORATE OFFICER
5%
2002-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID HANEY
CORPORATE OFFICER
1%
2002-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2023-09-30
$467,206
—
—
—
—
2
—
2022-09-30
$917,635
—
—
—
—
2
—
2021-09-30
$952,544
—
—
—
—
2
—
2020-09-30
$985,373
—
—
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 45071
fmr
0
$747
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45071
acs median gross
1
$603
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45071
fmr
1
$787
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45071
acs median gross
2
$879
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45071
fmr
2
$994
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45071
acs median gross
3
$921
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45071
fmr
3
$1,192
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45071
acs median gross
4
$1,101
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45071
fmr
4
$1,353
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 45071
acs median gross
$872
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 45071
acs recent mover gross
$1,055
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29108
acs median gross
1
$525
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29108
acs median gross
2
$864
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29108
acs median gross
3
$924
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29108
acs median gross
4
$1,078
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29108
acs median gross
$862
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 29108
acs recent mover gross
$1,008
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 29108
payment standard 110
0
$836
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29108
payment standard 90
0
$684
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29108
safmr
0
$760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29108
payment standard 110
1
$880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29108
payment standard 90
1
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29108
safmr
1
$800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29108
payment standard 110
2
$1,111
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29108
payment standard 90
2
$909
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29108
safmr
2
$1,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29108
payment standard 110
3
$1,331
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29108
payment standard 90
3
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29108
safmr
3
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29108
payment standard 110
4
$1,518
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29108
payment standard 90
4
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 29108
safmr
4
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.