Composite
77.9 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 96.2 | 94.7 | 0.30 | 0.4000 | 38.48 | in index |
| chow risk | 64.1 | 45.5 | 0.15 | 0.2000 | 12.82 | in index |
| financial risk | 20.4 | 27.3 | 0.30 | 0.4000 | 8.16 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 55.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 35.9 | B | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 27.3 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.3 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 94.7 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| financial risk | 41.2 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 21.2 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 20.7 | A | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 27.6 | B | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 94.7 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 94.7 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Occupancy | 0.82 | -0.37 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.70 | -0.33 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 12.28 | -0.72 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 4.70 | -0.62 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 0.84 | +0.37 | |
| Occupancy | 0.82 | -0.32 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 9.00 | -0.24 |
| 2024Q4 HPRD | This facility | LA median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 4.70 | 3.38 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.20 | 0.10 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 4.27 | 3.09 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 4.87 | 3.48 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 59.3 | 4.70 | 0.20 | 1.19 | 3.31 | 4.27 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 53.3 | 3.86 | 0.16 | 0.99 | 2.71 | 3.32 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 51.0 | 3.86 | 0.17 | 1.04 | 2.66 | 3.32 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 49.1 | 4.29 | 0.17 | 1.01 | 3.11 | 3.58 | 0.1% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 49.2 | 4.41 | 0.18 | 1.15 | 3.08 | 3.62 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 46.5 | 4.73 | 0.19 | 1.15 | 3.39 | 3.91 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 44.4 | 4.87 | 0.21 | 1.22 | 3.44 | 3.82 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 45.5 | 4.56 | 0.22 | 1.28 | 3.06 | 3.94 | 0.0% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-28 | Fine | $214,871 | CMS provider data |
| 2025-08-28 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| 2025-04-09 | Fine | $77,838 | CMS provider data |
| 2025-04-09 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| 2024-02-29 | Fine | $27,024 | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-19 | Health · complaint | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | E | 2026-03-08 |
| 2025-10-01 | Health · complaint | F0628 | Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies. | D | 2025-10-03 |
| 2025-10-01 | Health · complaint | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | D | 2025-10-03 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | E | 2025-10-01 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | L | 2025-10-01 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | E | 2025-10-01 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2025-10-01 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-10-01 |
| 2025-08-28 | Health · complaint | F0944 | Conduct mandatory training, for all staff, on the facility’s Quality Assurance and Performance Improvement Program. | E | 2025-10-01 |
| 2025-05-01 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | H | 2025-05-20 |
| 2025-05-01 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | D | 2025-05-20 |
| 2025-05-01 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2025-05-20 |
| 2025-04-09 | Health | F0577 | Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies. | C | 2025-05-15 |
| 2025-04-09 | Health | F0637 | Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition | E | 2025-05-15 |
| 2025-04-09 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | E | 2025-05-15 |
| 2025-04-09 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2025-05-15 |
| 2025-04-09 | Health | F0838 | Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies. | F | 2025-05-15 |
| 2025-04-09 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-05-15 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2024-03-29 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2024-03-29 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | D | 2024-03-29 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health · complaint | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | G | 2024-03-29 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health · complaint | F0677 | Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable. | E | 2024-03-29 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | K | 2024-03-29 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health · complaint | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2024-03-29 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0835 | Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently. | L | 2024-03-29 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | E | 2024-03-29 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-03-29 |
| 2024-02-29 | Health | F0919 | Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area. | L | 2024-03-29 |
| 2023-01-20 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2023-03-03 |
| 2023-01-20 | Health | F0580 | Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident. | E | 2023-03-03 |
| 2023-01-20 | Health | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2023-03-03 |
| 2023-01-20 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | E | 2023-03-03 |
| 2023-01-20 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2023-03-03 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWAN, NAVEED | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2012-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BIRCH, SHARON | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2012-09-06 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LANDRY, JOEL | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2015-01-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ST HELENA PARISH HOSPITAL | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| NAVEED AWAN | CORPORATE OFFICER | 100% | 2012-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOEL LANDRY | CORPORATE OFFICER | 50% | 2015-01-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SHARON BIRCH | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 50% | 2012-09-06 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-01 | Timber Springs Rehab and Retirement | — | — | — | 153 | PMG OPCO - SPRINGHILL LLC |
| 2025-03-28 | Cornerstone Post Acute Care Of Bossier | — | — | — | 7 | CORNERSTONE POST ACUTE CARE OF BOSSIER LLC |
| 2024-09-16 | REGENCY HOUSE OF ALEXANDRIA | — | — | — | 58 | REGENCY HOUSE SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2024-03-01 | Heritage Manor Health & Rehab | — | — | — | 64 | 2575 AIRLINE DRIVE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-03-01 | FAIR CITY HEALTH AND REHAB | — | — | — | 121 | 2000 FRANK SNF LLC |
| 2024-03-01 | Adira Medical Resort | — | — | — | 77 | 4405 AIRLINE DRIVE OPCO LLC |
| 2023-12-28 | Oak Haven Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center | — | — | — | 104 | OAK HAVEN SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-12-28 | The Columns Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center | — | — | — | 140 | COLUMNS SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2023-10-01 | MAISON D'ACADIENS CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 78 | 2907 BASILE SNF LLC |
| 2023-10-01 | Riverview Care Center | — | — | — | 135 | BOSSIER RIVERVIEW, LLC |
| 2023-10-01 | Flannery Oaks Guest House | — | — | — | 130 | FLANNERY OAKS GH BR |
| 2023-08-01 | Legacy Nursing at St. Christina | — | — | — | 140 | ST CHRISTINA OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 22091 | acs median gross | 0 | $177 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 22091 | fmr | 0 | $1,032 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 22091 | acs median gross | 1 | $237 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 22091 | fmr | 1 | $1,064 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 22091 | acs median gross | 2 | $735 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 22091 | fmr | 2 | $1,204 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 22091 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,212 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 22091 | fmr | 3 | $1,511 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 22091 | fmr | 4 | $1,943 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 22091 | acs median gross | $870 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 70441 | acs median gross | 0 | $177 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 70441 | acs median gross | 1 | $237 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 70441 | acs median gross | 2 | $378 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 70441 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,329 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zip 70441 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,056 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 70441 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $864 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 70441 | safmr | 0 | $960 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 70441 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,078 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 70441 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $882 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 70441 | safmr | 1 | $980 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 70441 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,210 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 70441 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $990 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 70441 | safmr | 2 | $1,100 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 70441 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,518 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 70441 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,242 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 70441 | safmr | 3 | $1,380 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 70441 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,013 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 70441 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,647 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 70441 | safmr | 4 | $1,830 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |