3322 SILVERSIDE ROAD, WILMINGTON, DE 19810 · CCN 085056 · chain LONG TERM CARE CORP
Composite
40.1 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
116
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 40.1% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
DITTMAR LAURA
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
LITWA KAREN
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
LONG TERM CARE CORP
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
PRICE ELIZABETH
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
SCHAFER RON
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
SILVER STEPHEN
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
DE median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.47
3.64
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.51
0.51
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.60
3.58
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.42
3.69
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
103.9
3.47
0.51
0.79
2.17
3.60
0.0%
2025Q3
92
93.1
3.74
0.57
0.80
2.38
3.84
0.0%
2025Q2
91
97.5
3.73
0.53
0.83
2.37
3.85
0.0%
2025Q1
90
106.9
3.69
0.52
0.89
2.28
3.68
0.0%
2024Q4
92
103.5
3.45
0.62
0.78
2.05
3.46
0.0%
2024Q3
92
98.3
3.50
0.63
0.70
2.17
3.53
0.0%
2024Q2
91
98.6
3.65
0.68
0.77
2.21
3.67
0.0%
2024Q1
91
105.1
3.52
0.72
0.67
2.14
3.60
0.0%
2023Q4
92
105.6
3.33
0.70
0.70
1.92
3.38
0.0%
2023Q3
92
110.8
3.50
0.74
0.71
2.06
3.35
8.1%
2023Q2
91
104.3
3.28
0.72
0.60
1.95
3.01
13.2%
2023Q1
90
110.9
2.79
0.61
0.57
1.61
2.65
13.5%
2022Q4
92
101.7
3.03
0.72
0.51
1.80
2.99
0.0%
2022Q3
92
104.1
3.36
0.65
0.67
2.03
3.26
0.0%
2022Q2
91
100.2
3.10
0.70
0.75
1.65
2.99
0.5%
2022Q1
90
109.8
3.24
0.61
0.78
1.85
3.14
10.4%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
—
2026-04-27
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
—
2026-04-27
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
—
2025-12-01
Health · complaint
F0576
Ensure residents have reasonable access to and privacy in their use of communication methods.
D
2026-01-15
2025-12-01
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2026-01-15
2025-12-01
Health · complaint
F0745
Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life.
D
2026-01-15
2025-12-01
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-01-15
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
E
2025-05-11
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-05-11
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
J
2024-07-17
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2025-05-11
2025-03-27
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2025-05-11
2025-03-27
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2025-05-11
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-05-11
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-05-11
2025-03-27
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-05-11
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2025-05-11
2025-03-27
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
E
2025-05-11
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-05-11
2024-03-07
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-04-22
2024-03-07
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-04-22
2024-03-07
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-04-22
2024-03-07
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-04-22
2024-03-07
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-04-22
2024-03-07
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-04-22
2024-03-07
Health
F0847
Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse.
D
2024-04-22
2023-03-27
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2023-04-13
2023-03-27
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2023-04-13
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
DITTMAR, LAURA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LITWA, KAREN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
LONG TERM CARE CORP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
LONG TERM CARE CORP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-23
current
pecos_ownership
ONIX GROUP LL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-23
current
pecos_ownership
PRICE, ELIZABETH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHAFER, RON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHAFER, RON
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2011-07-18
current
pecos_ownership
SILVER, STEPHEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-07-18
current
pecos_ownership
RON SCHAFER
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2011-07-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RON SCHAFER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2008-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN SILVER
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2011-07-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN SILVER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2008-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN LITWA
CORPORATE OFFICER
20%
2012-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH PRICE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA DITTMAR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2020-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RON SCHAFER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,608,716
—
$1,608,716
—
—
2
—
2023-12-31
$2,265,285
—
$1,720,311
—
—
4
—
2022-12-31
$1,289,027
—
$1,119
—
—
4
—
2021-12-31
$1,452,998
—
$483
—
—
4
—
2020-12-31
$817,233
—
—
—
—
4
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 10003
acs median gross
0
$1,239
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 10003
fmr
0
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 10003
acs median gross
1
$1,241
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 10003
fmr
1
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 10003
acs median gross
2
$1,487
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 10003
fmr
2
$1,810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 10003
acs median gross
3
$1,714
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 10003
fmr
3
$2,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 10003
acs median gross
4
$1,851
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 10003
fmr
4
$2,423
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 10003
acs median gross
5
$1,864
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 10003
acs median gross
$1,448
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 10003
acs recent mover gross
$1,718
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19810
acs median gross
0
$1,454
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19810
acs median gross
1
$1,347
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19810
acs median gross
2
$1,698
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19810
acs median gross
3
$1,944
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19810
acs median gross
4
$2,214
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19810
acs median gross
$1,648
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 19810
acs recent mover gross
$1,969
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 19810
payment standard 110
0
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19810
payment standard 90
0
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19810
safmr
0
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19810
payment standard 110
1
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19810
payment standard 90
1
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19810
safmr
1
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19810
payment standard 110
2
$1,958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19810
payment standard 90
2
$1,602
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19810
safmr
2
$1,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19810
payment standard 110
3
$2,343
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19810
payment standard 90
3
$1,917
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19810
safmr
3
$2,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19810
payment standard 110
4
$2,618
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19810
payment standard 90
4
$2,142
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 19810
safmr
4
$2,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.