Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

901–950

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
901	Pennswood Village	3.0%	94.1	A	PA	NEWTOWN	53	—
902	PINES VILLAGE INC	3.0%	94.1	B	NJ	WHITING	66	—
903	DONALSON CARE CENTER	3.0%	94.1	C	TN	FAYETTEVILLE	168	THE HEALTH CARE AUTHORITY OF THE CITY OF HUNTSVILLE
904	Woodland Terrace	3.0%	94.1	B	IA	Waverly	100	—
905	JOHNSON CNTR/FALCONS LANDING	3.0%	94.1	A	VA	POTOMAC FALLS	60	—
906	WILSON HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.0%	94.1	B	MD	GAITHERSBURG	285	ASBURY COMMUNITIES INC
907	Lasell House	2.9%	94.1	A	MA	NEWTON	44	—
908	ASH GROVE HEALTHCARE FACILITY	2.9%	94.1	B	MO	ASH GROVE	82	—
909	WATERS OF MUNCIE, THE	2.9%	94.1	B	IN	MUNCIE	72	HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
910	MAJESTIC OAKS	2.9%	94.1	A	FL	ORANGE CITY	150	—
911	CORNERSTONE RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	2.9%	94.1	C	TX	TEXARKANA	40	—
912	LOGAN ACRES	2.9%	94.0	A	OH	BELLEFONTAINE	110	—
913	CLATSOP CARE CENTER	2.9%	94.0	A	OR	ASTORIA	71	AIDAN HEALTH SERVICES INC
914	THE HAVEN AT BRANDERMILL WOODS	2.9%	94.0	A	VA	MIDLOTHIAN	60	—
915	Wilton Retirement Community	2.9%	94.0	A	IA	Wilton	34	—
916	SARASOTA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	2.9%	94.0	D	FL	SARASOTA	144	—
917	INDEPENDENCE HOUSE	2.9%	94.0	B	OH	FOSTORIA	50	BLANCHARD VALLEY HEALTH SYSTEM
918	TEXHOMA CHRISTIAN CARE CENTER INC	2.9%	94.0	A	TX	WICHITA FALLS	0	OLNEY HAMILTON HOSPITAL DISTRICT
919	Connecticut Baptist Homes, Inc	2.9%	94.0	A	CT	MERIDEN	60	—
920	PRESBYTERIAN VILLAGE	2.9%	94.0	B	GA	AUSTELL	107	—
921	BRETHREN RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	2.9%	94.0	B	OH	GREENVILLE	80	—
922	Fallbrook Commons	2.9%	94.0	A	ME	PORTLAND	102	—
923	SOLOMON VALLEY MANOR	2.9%	94.0	A	KS	STOCKTON	30	—
924	Providence Point Healthcare Residence	2.9%	94.0	B	PA	PITTSBURGH	42	—
925	Eventide Prairie Commons Care Center	2.9%	94.0	C	NE	Grand Island	36	EVENTIDE
926	METHODIST HOME FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION	2.9%	94.0	B	NY	BRONX	120	—
927	HOMESTEAD HEALTH CENTER	2.9%	94.0	B	KS	WICHITA	45	—
928	SAMUEL MAHELONA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	2.9%	94.0	A	HI	KAPAA	66	—
929	CAVE CITY NURSING HOME INC	2.9%	94.0	A	AR	CAVE CITY	90	—
930	EAMC LANIER NURSING HOME	2.9%	93.9	C	AL	VALLEY	103	—
931	POTOSI MANOR	2.9%	93.9	C	MO	POTOSI	90	—
932	LAKEVIEW VILLAGE	2.9%	93.9	A	KS	LENEXA	158	LAKEVIEW VILLAGE INC
933	Gordon Countryside Care	2.9%	93.9	A	NE	Gordon	40	—
934	MN VETERANS HOME - LUVERNE	2.9%	93.9	A	MN	LUVERNE	85	—
935	FAIRVIEW HAVEN	2.9%	93.9	A	IL	FAIRBURY	52	—
936	TWIN WILLOWS NURSING CENTER	2.9%	93.9	B	IL	SALEM	72	—
937	NEIGHBORS - CENTRAL NEIGHBORHOOD (THE)	2.9%	93.9	A	WI	MENOMONIE	45	COUNTY OF DUNN
938	WALSH HEALTHCARE CENTER	2.9%	93.9	A	CO	WALSH	30	—
939	RIVER TERRACE HEALTH CARE CENTER	2.9%	93.9	A	IN	BLUFFTON	67	ADAMS COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
940	BAY VILLAGE OF SARASOTA	2.9%	93.9	A	FL	SARASOTA	95	—
941	The Lighthouse at Lakeside Village	2.9%	93.9	A	NE	Omaha	54	—
942	PIGEON FALLS HCC	2.9%	93.9	A	WI	PIGEON FALLS	37	—
943	United Transitional Care Center	2.9%	93.8	A	WV	BRIDGEPORT	32	—
944	SANFORD CHAMBERLAIN CARE CENTER	2.9%	93.8	D	SD	CHAMBERLAIN	44	—
945	Avir at Enchanted Rock	2.9%	93.8	D	TX	Fredericksburg	0	—
946	Sancta Maria Nursing Facility	2.8%	93.8	A	MA	CAMBRIDGE	141	—
947	SUNNYSIDE PRESBYTERIAN RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	2.8%	93.8	A	VA	HARRISONBURG	84	—
948	LINN COMMUNITY NURSING HOME	2.8%	93.8	B	KS	LINN	42	—
949	SD HUMAN SERVICES CENTER - GERIATRIC PROGRAM	2.8%	93.8	A	SD	YANKTON	69	—
950	LUTHERAN HOME AT KANE, THE	2.8%	93.8	A	PA	KANE	90	—

Showing 901–950 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.