Reads as: riskier than 19.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.70
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.57
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.54
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.76
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
54.8
4.70
0.57
1.28
2.85
4.54
6.3%
2025Q3
92
55.3
6.39
0.44
1.82
4.13
6.33
4.5%
2025Q2
91
54.2
5.04
0.50
1.38
3.16
4.76
8.9%
2025Q1
90
54.2
6.82
0.55
1.79
4.48
6.75
5.5%
2024Q4
92
55.4
6.85
0.48
2.00
4.38
6.65
3.7%
2024Q3
92
55.3
6.89
0.47
1.99
4.43
6.92
3.4%
2024Q2
91
55.2
6.87
0.59
1.89
4.38
6.77
5.1%
2024Q1
91
56.1
6.79
0.56
1.96
4.28
6.69
2.5%
2023Q4
92
60.6
6.48
0.51
1.71
4.26
6.36
13.2%
2023Q3
92
57.9
6.29
0.53
1.73
4.03
6.29
17.2%
2023Q2
91
57.7
6.13
0.41
1.74
3.98
5.96
17.3%
2023Q1
90
54.9
5.78
0.41
1.77
3.59
5.59
8.0%
2022Q4
92
53.3
5.16
0.37
1.59
3.20
4.97
0.0%
2022Q3
92
47.0
5.43
0.30
1.52
3.61
5.31
0.0%
2022Q2
91
45.5
5.50
0.35
1.42
3.74
5.39
0.0%
2022Q1
90
43.6
5.25
0.23
1.44
3.59
5.04
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
11
D × 7E × 3F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-04-18
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-05-18
2024-04-18
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-05-18
2024-04-18
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-05-18
2024-04-18
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2024-05-18
2024-04-18
Health
F0804
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2024-05-18
2024-04-18
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-05-18
2022-06-23
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2022-07-23
2022-06-23
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2022-07-23
2022-06-23
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2022-07-23
2022-06-23
Health
F0943
Give their staff education on dementia care, and what abuse, neglect, and exploitation are; and how to report abuse, neglect, and exploitation.
E
2022-07-23
2020-12-17
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2021-01-17
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
49
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BAY VILLAGE OF SARASOTA INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-22
current
pecos_ownership
CAUGHRON, DIANA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-05-07
current
pecos_ownership
COMBS, THOMAS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOODRICH, DONALD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRIMES, JENNIFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-07-15
current
pecos_ownership
GRIMES, JENNIFER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
HOWE, THOMAS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
JONES, TIMOTHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-18
current
pecos_ownership
JUNKINS, KATHLEEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LUNSFORD, MARVIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-09-10
current
pecos_ownership
NICHOLS, ERIC
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2017-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
OLWERT, ANDREW
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PENN, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PITCHER, LAURA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
ROBINSON, ABIGAIL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROTH, KIMBERLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
SEEGER, SALLY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHERWOOD, ROBERT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHERWOOD, ROBERT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SNYDER, DONALD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEIN, BARRY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TAYLOR, THOMAS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, ASHLEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-12
current
pecos_ownership
WIZBA, CHRISTINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-22
current
pecos_ownership
WIZBA, CHRISTINA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1996-11-18
current
pecos_ownership
ABIGAIL ROBINSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW OLWERT
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINA WIZBA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
1996-11-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD GOODRICH
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD SNYDER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIC NICHOLS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2017-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER GRIMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2019-07-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN PENN
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHLEEN JUNKINS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT SHERWOOD
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SALLY SEEGER
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS COMBS
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS HOWE
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS TAYLOR
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ASHLEY WILLIAMS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARRY STEIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINA WIZBA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIANA CAUGHRON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2013-05-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER GRIMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KIMBERLY ROTH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA PITCHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-01-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARVIN LUNSFORD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-09-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT SHERWOOD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY JONES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12115
acs median gross
0
$1,579
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
fmr
0
$1,418
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12115
acs median gross
1
$1,628
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
fmr
1
$1,686
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12115
acs median gross
2
$1,789
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
fmr
2
$1,958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12115
acs median gross
3
$2,074
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
fmr
3
$2,537
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12115
acs median gross
4
$2,216
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
fmr
4
$3,027
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12115
acs median gross
5
$2,963
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
acs median gross
$1,818
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
acs recent mover gross
$2,167
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34231
acs median gross
0
$1,331
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34231
acs median gross
1
$1,642
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34231
acs median gross
2
$1,834
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34231
acs median gross
3
$2,043
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34231
acs median gross
4
$2,194
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34231
acs median gross
$1,821
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34231
acs recent mover gross
$2,141
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 34231
payment standard 110
0
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 90
0
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
safmr
0
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 110
1
$1,936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 90
1
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
safmr
1
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 110
2
$2,255
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 90
2
$1,845
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
safmr
2
$2,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 110
3
$2,926
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 90
3
$2,394
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
safmr
3
$2,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 110
4
$3,487
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 90
4
$2,853
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
safmr
4
$3,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.