Reads as: riskier than 83.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
anomaly
Quarter-over-quarter staffing cliff
−50% QoQ
this facility
2026-07-29
anomaly
Staffing collapse vs state peers
3.7σ below
this facility
2026-07-29
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.49
3.37
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.46
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.33
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.55
3.50
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
86.7
2.49
0.46
0.38
1.65
2.33
0.0%
2025Q3
92
88.9
1.14
0.21
0.20
0.73
1.21
0.0%
2025Q2
91
85.5
2.28
0.38
0.40
1.49
2.07
0.0%
2025Q1
90
76.5
3.69
0.52
0.59
2.59
3.45
0.0%
2024Q4
92
75.1
4.05
0.55
0.66
2.84
3.83
0.0%
2024Q3
92
72.6
3.89
0.48
0.82
2.59
3.48
0.0%
2024Q2
91
71.6
3.69
0.22
0.97
2.50
3.31
0.0%
2024Q1
91
74.6
3.70
0.23
0.98
2.50
3.42
0.0%
2023Q4
92
72.9
3.95
0.22
0.99
2.74
3.57
0.0%
2023Q3
92
70.2
3.63
0.23
0.91
2.48
3.29
0.0%
2023Q2
91
69.9
2.29
0.14
0.53
1.62
2.13
0.0%
2023Q1
90
70.5
3.05
0.23
0.79
2.03
2.76
0.0%
2022Q4
92
69.4
2.97
0.17
0.90
1.90
2.70
0.0%
2022Q3
92
68.7
3.19
0.15
0.92
2.13
2.84
0.0%
2022Q2
91
67.2
3.26
0.12
0.96
2.18
2.93
0.0%
2022Q1
90
68.4
3.36
0.18
0.99
2.19
3.06
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
9
C × 1D × 7F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2021-08-19
Health
F0868
Have the Quality Assessment and Assurance group have the required members and meet at least quarterly
C
2021-09-10
2019-03-21
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2019-04-24
2019-03-21
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2019-04-24
2019-03-21
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2019-04-24
2019-03-21
Health
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2019-04-24
2019-03-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-04-24
2018-03-22
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2018-04-25
2018-03-22
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2018-04-25
2018-03-22
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2018-04-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
36
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ABRAMS, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
ALDERMAN, CHARLES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
DUMAS, ROBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRAY, VALERIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRILL, LAURA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRILL, LAURA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRUBBS, VERTRINA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON, LEE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
KAMATH, ARVIND
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-10
current
pecos_ownership
KAMATH, ARVIND
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
LOCK, JAMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRICE, SAMUEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH T, DOZIER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE EAST ALABAMA HEALTH CARE AUTHORITY
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2014-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
THE EAST ALABAMA HEALTH CARE AUTHORITY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
TUCKER, STANLEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
WELSH, HAYLEY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
YARBROUGH, ALISON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-05-03
current
pecos_ownership
ALISON YARBROUGH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-05-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARVIND KAMATH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARVIND KAMATH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES ALDERMAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOZIER SMITH T
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HAYLEY WELSH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES LOCK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN ABRAMS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA GRILL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LAURA GRILL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEE JOHNSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL WILLIAMS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT DUMAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMUEL PRICE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2014-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STANLEY TUCKER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VALERIE GRAY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VERTRINA GRUBBS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-09-30
$4,871,622
—
—
—
$1,325,000
0
—
2023-09-30
$3,758,475
—
$306,088
—
$337,576
0
—
2022-09-30
$3,912,042
—
$358,161
—
$140,208
0
—
2021-09-30
$4,769,594
—
—
—
$552,981
0
—
2020-09-30
$3,929,238
—
$863,580
$229,861
$794,244
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 01017
acs median gross
0
$599
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01017
fmr
0
$691
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01017
acs median gross
1
$815
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01017
fmr
1
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01017
acs median gross
2
$865
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01017
fmr
2
$1,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01017
acs median gross
3
$945
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01017
fmr
3
$1,265
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01017
acs median gross
4
$1,109
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01017
fmr
4
$1,327
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01017
acs median gross
$871
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01017
acs recent mover gross
$938
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36854
acs median gross
1
$975
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36854
acs median gross
2
$999
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36854
acs median gross
3
$1,160
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36854
acs median gross
$1,060
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36854
acs recent mover gross
$959
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 36854
payment standard 110
0
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36854
payment standard 90
0
$729
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36854
safmr
0
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36854
payment standard 110
1
$1,023
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36854
payment standard 90
1
$837
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36854
safmr
1
$930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36854
payment standard 110
2
$1,276
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36854
payment standard 90
2
$1,044
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36854
safmr
2
$1,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36854
payment standard 110
3
$1,617
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36854
payment standard 90
3
$1,323
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36854
safmr
3
$1,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36854
payment standard 110
4
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36854
payment standard 90
4
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36854
safmr
4
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.