Reads as: riskier than 7.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
HALL MATTHEW
16 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.29
3.37
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.48
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.86
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.46
3.50
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
160.6
4.29
0.48
1.07
2.75
3.86
0.0%
2025Q3
92
158.3
4.31
0.49
1.09
2.73
3.81
0.0%
2025Q2
91
156.5
4.31
0.49
1.12
2.71
3.77
0.0%
2025Q1
90
160.7
4.31
0.56
1.02
2.73
3.86
0.0%
2024Q4
92
160.7
4.01
0.55
0.89
2.57
3.50
0.0%
2024Q3
92
160.4
4.00
0.49
0.98
2.54
3.48
0.0%
2024Q2
91
158.2
4.18
0.55
1.03
2.60
3.50
0.0%
2024Q1
91
150.1
4.32
0.61
1.03
2.68
3.64
0.0%
2023Q4
92
144.0
4.60
0.63
1.13
2.84
4.17
0.0%
2023Q3
92
140.1
4.45
0.60
1.09
2.75
3.85
0.0%
2023Q2
91
138.2
4.27
0.53
1.18
2.55
3.73
0.0%
2023Q1
90
136.3
4.05
0.62
1.15
2.28
3.67
0.0%
2022Q4
92
128.7
4.42
0.71
1.15
2.56
3.85
0.0%
2022Q3
92
128.0
3.70
0.54
1.14
2.02
3.53
0.0%
2022Q2
91
125.2
3.94
0.44
1.25
2.26
3.68
0.0%
2022Q1
90
125.9
3.87
0.44
1.26
2.17
3.89
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
12
D × 7E × 1F × 4
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2022-06-18
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2022-07-25
2022-06-18
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2022-07-25
2022-06-18
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2022-07-25
2022-06-18
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-07-25
2019-07-18
Health
F0567
Honor the resident's right to manage his or her financial affairs.
F
2019-08-06
2019-07-18
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2019-08-05
2019-07-18
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2019-08-09
2019-07-18
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2019-08-09
2018-08-02
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2018-08-29
2018-08-02
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2018-09-04
2018-08-02
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2018-08-28
2018-08-02
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2018-09-05
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
32
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ADAMSON, MICHELE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRITTON, ISAAC
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ESTEP, BARBARA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-07
current
pecos_ownership
ESTEP, BARBARA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
ESTEP, BARBARA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORD, SHENIKA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOFF, ROBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HALL, MATTHEW
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORRISS, JESSE
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NELSON, DEBRA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NOLAND HEALTH SERVICES, INC
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NOLAND HEALTH SERVICES, INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-07
current
pecos_ownership
NOLAND HEALTH SERVICES, INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
RENDA, NICHOLAS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
RENDA, NICHOLAS
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SMITH, GEORGE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
WAGGONER, JAMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
WARREN AVERETT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
BARBARA ESTEP
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARBARA ESTEP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARBARA ESTEP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBRA NELSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GEORGE SMITH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ISAAC BRITTON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES WAGGONER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSE MORRISS
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MATTHEW HALL
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELE ADAMSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICHOLAS RENDA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICHOLAS RENDA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT GOFF
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHENIKA FORD
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2024-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
1
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-06-30
$2,189,226
—
$897,530
$758,569
—
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
28
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 01069
acs median gross
0
$738
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01069
fmr
0
$757
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01069
acs median gross
1
$656
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01069
fmr
1
$762
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01069
acs median gross
2
$860
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01069
fmr
2
$950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01069
acs median gross
3
$1,062
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01069
fmr
3
$1,288
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01069
acs median gross
4
$1,156
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01069
fmr
4
$1,428
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01069
acs median gross
5
$2,167
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01069
acs median gross
$945
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01069
acs recent mover gross
$1,030
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 36302
payment standard 110
0
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36302
payment standard 90
0
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36302
safmr
0
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36302
payment standard 110
1
$858
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36302
payment standard 90
1
$702
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36302
safmr
1
$780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36302
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36302
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36302
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36302
payment standard 110
3
$1,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36302
payment standard 90
3
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36302
safmr
3
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36302
payment standard 110
4
$1,606
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36302
payment standard 90
4
$1,314
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36302
safmr
4
$1,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.