13750 HIGHWAY 90 WEST, GRAND BAY, AL 36541 · CCN 015406 · chain GNH IRRV TR
Composite
69.9 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
92
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 69.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.4 vs natl
GNH IRRV TR
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.3 vs natl
ARCO KANO IRRV TR
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.3 vs natl
HWOOD PARTNERS LLC
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.7 vs natl
ZLOTOWITZ ELIYAHU
10 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.2 vs natl
ARABELLA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.1 vs natl
FEIN MIRIAM
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.1 vs natl
HERTZEL CHAIM
11 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
AL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.10
3.37
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.25
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.01
3.04
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.14
3.50
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
73.2
3.10
0.25
0.89
1.96
3.01
0.0%
2025Q3
92
62.3
3.04
0.18
0.94
1.92
3.13
0.0%
2025Q2
91
61.2
3.48
0.26
0.95
2.28
3.45
0.0%
2025Q1
90
66.4
3.12
0.19
0.89
2.04
3.07
0.0%
2024Q4
92
68.0
2.83
0.13
0.65
2.05
2.63
0.0%
2024Q3
92
74.2
3.08
0.15
0.62
2.31
2.73
0.0%
2024Q2
91
76.9
2.79
0.13
0.57
2.08
2.32
0.0%
2024Q1
91
76.0
2.72
0.08
0.63
2.01
2.35
0.0%
2023Q4
92
70.6
2.70
0.13
0.64
1.93
2.34
0.0%
2023Q3
92
70.8
2.34
0.10
0.64
1.60
2.02
0.0%
2023Q2
91
72.6
2.77
0.14
0.60
2.03
2.30
0.0%
2023Q1
90
70.4
3.21
0.18
0.68
2.35
2.89
0.0%
2022Q4
92
69.1
3.03
0.15
0.68
2.19
2.66
0.0%
2022Q3
92
73.0
3.02
0.13
0.68
2.21
2.72
0.0%
2022Q2
91
68.3
3.09
0.12
0.73
2.24
2.96
0.0%
2022Q1
90
62.2
3.17
0.16
0.78
2.22
2.98
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-04-24
2025-04-15
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2025-05-16
2025-04-15
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
E
2025-05-12
2025-04-15
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
J
2025-05-16
2025-04-15
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
J
2025-05-12
2025-04-15
Health · complaint
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-05-12
2025-04-15
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
E
2025-05-12
2025-04-15
Health · complaint
F0740
Ensure each resident must receive and the facility must provide necessary behavioral health care and services.
J
2025-05-12
2025-04-15
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-05-12
2025-04-15
Health · complaint
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
F
2025-05-12
2025-04-15
Health · complaint
F0835
Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently.
L
2025-05-16
2025-04-15
Health · complaint
F0851
Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data.
F
2025-05-12
2025-04-15
Health · complaint
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
L
2025-05-12
2023-10-06
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-10-27
2023-08-17
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
K
2023-09-07
2022-07-13
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-08-12
2022-07-13
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2022-08-12
2022-07-13
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-08-12
2021-06-09
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2021-07-14
2021-06-09
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2021-07-14
2021-06-09
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2021-07-14
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
28
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF GRAND BAY HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF GRAND BAY PROPCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-13
current
pecos_ownership
ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF GRAND BAY PROPCO LLC
5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST
—
2024-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF PENSACOLA PROPCO HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
ARABELLA HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-17
current
pecos_ownership
ARCO KANO IRRV TR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-13
current
pecos_ownership
BREDLEGS HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-13
current
pecos_ownership
BREDLEGS HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
CAMDEN WV LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
DEB EL INVESTMENT GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
FEIN, MIRIAM
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
FEIN, SETH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
GNH IRRV TR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-13
current
pecos_ownership
HEALTHCARE INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
HERTZEL, CHAIM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-03
current
pecos_ownership
HWOOD PARTNERS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-13
current
pecos_ownership
RAY, KRISTINA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, JEFFREY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
ZLOTOWITZ, ELIYAHU
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-15
current
pecos_ownership
HWOOD PARTNERS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
96%
2024-11-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ARCO KANO IRRV TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
48%
2024-11-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GNH IRRV TR
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
48%
2024-11-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHAIM HERTZEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIYAHU ZLOTOWITZ
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY WILLIAMS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTINA RAY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MIRIAM FEIN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SETH FEIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-11-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 01097
acs median gross
0
$850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01097
fmr
0
$854
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01097
acs median gross
1
$867
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01097
fmr
1
$919
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01097
acs median gross
2
$1,014
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01097
fmr
2
$1,083
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01097
acs median gross
3
$1,207
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01097
fmr
3
$1,414
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01097
acs median gross
4
$1,339
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01097
fmr
4
$1,445
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 01097
acs median gross
5
$1,567
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01097
acs median gross
$1,052
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 01097
acs recent mover gross
$1,165
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36541
acs median gross
2
$951
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36541
acs median gross
3
$1,002
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36541
acs median gross
$933
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 36541
acs recent mover gross
$959
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 36541
payment standard 110
0
$902
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36541
payment standard 90
0
$738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36541
safmr
0
$820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36541
payment standard 110
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36541
payment standard 90
1
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36541
safmr
1
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36541
payment standard 110
2
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36541
payment standard 90
2
$972
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36541
safmr
2
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36541
payment standard 110
3
$1,562
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36541
payment standard 90
3
$1,278
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36541
safmr
3
$1,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36541
payment standard 110
4
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36541
payment standard 90
4
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 36541
safmr
4
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.