Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

851–900

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
851	BROAD ACRES HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	3.1%	94.5	B	PA	WELLSBORO	120	CHR CONSULTING SERVICES INC
852	Carol Woods	3.1%	94.5	A	NC	Chapel Hill	30	—
853	GOOD SHEPHERD HOME	3.1%	94.4	A	OH	FOSTORIA	95	—
854	EDGEWATER AT WATERMAN VILLAGE	3.1%	94.4	C	FL	MOUNT DORA	120	—
855	Joseph Eddie Ballard Western Kentucky Veterans Cen	3.1%	94.4	C	KY	Hanson	156	COMMONWEALTH OF KENTUCKY
856	Crosslands	3.1%	94.4	A	PA	KENNETT SQUARE	60	—
857	Accolade Healthcare of Waterloo	3.1%	94.4	A	IL	WATERLOO	144	—
858	MORTON PLANT REHABILITATION CENTER	3.1%	94.4	A	FL	BELLEAIR	126	—
859	COLORADO STATE VETERANS NURSING HOME - RIFLE	3.1%	94.4	C	CO	RIFLE	89	STATE OF COLORADO
860	MASON POINTE CARE CENTER	3.1%	94.4	C	MO	CHESTERFIELD	63	LUTHERAN SENIOR SERVICES
861	Legacy Nursing and Rehabilitation of Lafourche	3.1%	94.4	A	LA	THIBODAUX	72	—
862	ABODE HEALTH AND WELLNESS CENTER	3.1%	94.4	C	MO	INDEPENDENCE	118	THE BAPTIST HOME
863	Community Pride Care Center	3.1%	94.4	B	NE	Battle Creek	50	—
864	TRINITY COMMUNITY	3.1%	94.4	C	OH	BEAVERCREEK	95	—
865	Corn Heritage Village and Rehab	3.1%	94.4	C	OK	Corn	104	—
866	River's Bend Retirement Community	3.1%	94.3	A	KY	Kuttawa	40	—
867	MCLEANSBORO REHAB & HLTH C CTR	3.1%	94.3	B	IL	MCLEANSBORO	43	—
868	Oaknoll Retirement Residence	3.1%	94.3	A	IA	Iowa City	70	—
869	BOSTONIAN NURSING CARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.1%	94.3	A	MA	DORCHESTER	121	—
870	FLORIDA PRESBYTERIAN HOMES INC	3.1%	94.3	A	FL	LAKELAND	68	—
871	THREE CROWNS PARK	3.1%	94.3	B	IL	EVANSTON	34	—
872	Titonka Care Center	3.1%	94.3	A	IA	Titonka	26	CONTINUUM HEALTH CARE SERVICES LLC
873	ST LUKES LUTHERAN CARE CENTER	3.1%	94.3	A	MN	BLUE EARTH	64	—
874	APPLEWOOD VILLAGE, INC	3.1%	94.3	A	NJ	FREEHOLD	60	ATLANTIC HEALTH SYSTEM
875	Guardian Angels Health & Rehab Center	3.1%	94.3	A	MN	HIBBING	65	—
876	St. Ann's Community	3.1%	94.3	B	NY	Rochester	470	—
877	CUMBERLAND CROSSINGS RETIREMENT COMMUNITY	3.1%	94.3	B	PA	CARLISLE	58	DIAKON
878	LUTHERAN HILLSIDE VILLAGE	3.0%	94.3	B	IL	PEORIA	107	—
879	Lyngblomsten Care Center	3.0%	94.3	B	MN	SAINT PAUL	225	—
880	WESLEY HEALTH CARE CENTER INC	3.0%	94.3	C	NY	SARATOGA SPRINGS	356	UNITED METHODIST HEALTH AND HOUSING INC
881	DWYER HOME	3.0%	94.3	B	MA	WEYMOUTH	50	—
882	PINE VILLAGE	3.0%	94.3	A	KS	MOUNDRIDGE	74	—
883	NEVILLE CENTER AT FRESH POND FOR NURSING & REHAB	3.0%	94.3	B	MA	CAMBRIDGE	112	—
884	EMANUEL COUNTY NURSING HOME	3.0%	94.3	A	GA	SWAINSBORO	49	—
885	BROADMEAD	3.0%	94.2	A	MD	COCKEYSVILLE	70	—
886	LINCOLN GLEN SKILLED NURSING	3.0%	94.2	A	CA	SAN JOSE	59	—
887	VILLA MARIA	3.0%	94.2	B	KS	MULVANE	64	—
888	SELFHELP HOME OF CHICAGO	3.0%	94.2	A	IL	CHICAGO	72	—
889	OHIO LIVING DOROTHY LOVE	3.0%	94.2	B	OH	SIDNEY	44	—
890	Odd Fellow Home	3.0%	94.2	C	WI	Green Bay	88	—
891	CURTIS HOME ST ELIZABETH CENTER, THE	3.0%	94.2	A	CT	MERIDEN	60	—
892	KING'S GRANT LACY HEALTH CENTER	3.0%	94.2	A	VA	MARTINSVILLE	32	—
893	THE BROADWAY NURSING AND REHABILITATION CTR	3.0%	94.2	B	LA	LOCKPORT	126	—
894	ELIM PARK BAPTIST HOME, INC	3.0%	94.2	A	CT	CHESHIRE	90	—
895	GRAPEVINE MEDICAL LODGE	3.0%	94.2	C	TX	GRAPEVINE	0	DECATUR HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
896	NELSON COUNTY HEALTH SYSTEM CARE CENTER	3.0%	94.2	C	ND	MCVILLE	35	—
897	WINDSOR WOODS REHAB AND HEALTHCARE CENTER	3.0%	94.2	B	FL	HUDSON	103	—
898	LOGAN COUNTY SENIOR LIVING INC	3.0%	94.2	C	KS	OAKLEY	30	—
899	BETHESDA HOME	3.0%	94.2	A	CA	HAYWARD	40	—
900	Lourdes Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	3.0%	94.1	B	MI	Waterford	80	—

Showing 851–900 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.