1415 ALMOND AVENUE, SAINT PAUL, MN 55108 · CCN 245347
Composite
35.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
225
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 35.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.52
3.49
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.55
0.65
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.50
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.54
3.59
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
200.0
2.52
0.55
0.41
1.56
2.50
0.0%
2025Q3
92
209.1
2.47
0.48
0.43
1.55
2.44
0.0%
2025Q2
91
203.4
2.67
0.50
0.47
1.71
2.63
0.0%
2025Q1
90
202.4
2.96
0.50
0.49
1.97
2.96
0.0%
2024Q4
92
200.1
3.17
0.55
0.45
2.17
3.16
0.0%
2024Q3
92
207.5
3.12
0.54
0.46
2.13
3.11
0.0%
2024Q2
91
208.6
3.23
0.53
0.48
2.21
3.24
0.0%
2024Q1
91
211.8
3.24
0.74
0.45
2.05
3.07
0.0%
2023Q4
92
208.1
3.27
0.69
0.50
2.08
3.09
0.0%
2023Q3
92
210.0
3.19
0.64
0.53
2.02
3.01
0.0%
2023Q2
91
212.3
3.21
0.67
0.51
2.04
3.05
0.0%
2023Q1
90
212.2
2.92
0.62
0.41
1.89
2.69
0.0%
2022Q4
92
212.3
2.98
0.58
0.48
1.91
2.86
0.0%
2022Q3
92
211.5
2.88
0.54
0.50
1.84
2.74
0.0%
2022Q2
91
212.5
3.13
0.60
0.55
1.98
2.90
0.0%
2022Q1
90
210.7
3.24
0.59
0.59
2.05
3.02
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2025-07-18
2025-06-05
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
C
2025-07-18
2025-06-05
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2025-07-18
2025-06-05
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-07-18
2025-06-05
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2025-07-18
2025-06-05
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2025-07-18
2025-06-05
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-07-18
2025-06-05
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2025-07-18
2024-08-29
Health · complaint
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
J
2024-09-10
2024-05-21
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-06-10
2024-03-14
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-05-08
2024-03-14
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2024-05-08
2024-03-14
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2024-05-08
2024-03-14
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2024-05-08
2023-02-16
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-03-24
2023-02-16
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2023-03-24
2023-02-16
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-03-24
2023-02-16
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-03-24
2023-02-16
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-03-24
2023-02-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2023-03-24
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
61
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ANDERSON, ERIC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-11
current
pecos_ownership
ANDERSON, ERIC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
AUGER, TAYLOR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-04-12
current
pecos_ownership
BRANDT, JOAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRYANT, JUSTIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVINI, NICK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2007-12-03
current
pecos_ownership
DAVINI, NICK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-16
current
pecos_ownership
FLIFLET, TODD
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
GEORGE, DEBRA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GERLEMAN, TRISHA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2004-06-07
current
pecos_ownership
HART, LINDSEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-24
current
pecos_ownership
HAUCK, MARY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEINECKE, JEFFREY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2010-01-07
current
pecos_ownership
HEINECKE, JEFFREY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KAYIRANGIRWA, REDEMPTA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-07-12
current
pecos_ownership
KNUDSON, MARK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KORZENOWSKI, AMY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEE, KIMBERLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-10-24
current
pecos_ownership
LOVETT, MICHAEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LYNGBLOMSTEN CARE CENTER, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
—
current
pecos_ownership
MAKIENEN, RAQUELLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-14
current
pecos_ownership
MARTIN, ALLISON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-19
current
pecos_ownership
MCDONALD COLTVET, JOY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
OLSEN, BRUCE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PECK, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
POLGA, PETER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROCKSTAD, DIANA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROGERS, KRISTINE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-07-26
current
pecos_ownership
TRONDSON, CANDACE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2006-05-03
current
pecos_ownership
WAINMAN, GREGORY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-05-12
current
pecos_ownership
WALSH, ILLALY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-05-23
current
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY HEINECKE
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2010-01-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEFFREY HEINECKE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
100%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMY KORZENOWSKI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRUCE OLSEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBRA GEORGE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIANA ROCKSTAD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN BRANDT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN PECK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOY MCDONALD COLTVET
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JUSTIN BRYANT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK KNUDSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARY HAUCK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL LOVETT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PETER POLGA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD FLIFLET
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2024-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALLISON MARTIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CANDACE TRONDSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2006-05-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIC ANDERSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIC ANDERSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY WAINMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-05-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ILLALY WALSH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-05-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KIMBERLY LEE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-10-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTINE ROGERS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-07-26
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINDSEY HART
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-05-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICK DAVINI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICK DAVINI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2007-12-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RAQUELLE MAKIENEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
REDEMPTA KAYIRANGIRWA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-07-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TAYLOR AUGER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-04-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRISHA GERLEMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2004-06-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 27123
acs median gross
0
$1,074
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27123
fmr
0
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27123
acs median gross
1
$1,173
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27123
fmr
1
$1,405
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27123
acs median gross
2
$1,438
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27123
fmr
2
$1,709
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27123
acs median gross
3
$1,776
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27123
fmr
3
$2,262
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27123
acs median gross
4
$1,911
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27123
fmr
4
$2,531
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 27123
acs median gross
5
$1,813
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27123
acs median gross
$1,329
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 27123
acs recent mover gross
$1,347
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55108
acs median gross
0
$1,324
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55108
acs median gross
1
$1,227
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55108
acs median gross
2
$1,534
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55108
acs median gross
3
$2,065
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55108
acs median gross
$1,348
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 55108
acs recent mover gross
$1,328
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 55108
payment standard 110
0
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55108
payment standard 90
0
$1,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55108
safmr
0
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55108
payment standard 110
1
$1,562
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55108
payment standard 90
1
$1,278
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55108
safmr
1
$1,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55108
payment standard 110
2
$1,903
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55108
payment standard 90
2
$1,557
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55108
safmr
2
$1,730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55108
payment standard 110
3
$2,519
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55108
payment standard 90
3
$2,061
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55108
safmr
3
$2,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55108
payment standard 110
4
$2,816
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55108
payment standard 90
4
$2,304
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 55108
safmr
4
$2,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.