Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

651–700

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
651	VILLA HAVEN HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	3.8%	95.8	A	TX	BRECKENRIDGE	0	CHILDRESS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
652	Wesley Manor	3.8%	95.8	A	KY	Louisville	68	—
653	SARASOTA MEMORIAL NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	3.8%	95.8	A	FL	SARASOTA	120	—
654	Eden Rehab Suites and Green House Homes	3.8%	95.7	C	WI	Oshkosh	50	—
655	WASHITA VALLEY LIVING CENTER	3.8%	95.7	A	OK	PAULS VALLEY	109	—
656	ZUCKERBERG SAN FRANCISCO GENERAL HOSP & TRAUMA SNF	3.8%	95.7	A	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	30	CITY & COUNTY OF SAN FRANCISCO
657	THE MEADOWS	3.8%	95.7	A	TN	NASHVILLE	113	—
658	UNIVERSITY HEALTH LAKEWOOD MEDICAL CENTER	3.8%	95.7	C	MO	KANSAS CITY	188	—
659	Menifee Meadows Nursing & Rehab LLC	3.8%	95.7	C	KY	Frenchburg	60	—
660	WISHEK LIVING CENTER	3.8%	95.7	A	ND	WISHEK	43	—
661	IROQUOIS RESIDENT HOME, THE	3.8%	95.7	A	IL	WATSEKA	35	—
662	VILLAGE SHALOM INC	3.8%	95.7	C	KS	OVERLAND PARK	66	—
663	COMMUNITY HOSPITAL ONAGA LTCU	3.8%	95.7	A	KS	ST MARYS	26	—
664	Bethany Nursing Home & Health Related Facility Inc	3.8%	95.7	A	NY	Horseheads	122	—
665	Westward Heights Care Center	3.8%	95.7	A	WY	LANDER	60	—
666	SAUK CO HEALTH CARE CENTER	3.8%	95.7	A	WI	REEDSBURG	82	—
667	JNH-MADISON INN	3.8%	95.7	A	MS	WHITFIELD	63	—
668	PRESBYTERIAN VILLAGE NORTH SPECIAL CARE CTR	3.8%	95.7	C	TX	DALLAS	88	—
669	MORROW MEMORIAL HOME	3.8%	95.7	A	WI	SPARTA	80	—
670	MCKENZIE COUNTY HEALTHCARE SYSTEMS LONG TERM CARE	3.8%	95.6	A	ND	WATFORD CITY	42	—
671	CUMBERNAULD VILLAGE	3.8%	95.6	B	KS	WINFIELD	42	—
672	THE BAPTIST HOME AT BROOKMEADE	3.8%	95.6	A	NY	RHINEBECK	120	—
673	QUINTON MEM HC & REHAB CENTER	3.8%	95.6	B	GA	DALTON	120	HLTC INC
674	SHERRILL HOUSE	3.7%	95.6	B	MA	BOSTON	196	—
675	MAGNOLIA MANOR OF COLUMBUS NURSING CENTER - WEST	3.7%	95.6	A	GA	COLUMBUS	166	MAGNOLIA MANOR INC
676	The Legacy Living and Rehabilitation Center	3.7%	95.6	D	WY	Gillette	160	—
677	TWIN OAKS CONVALESCENT CENTER	3.7%	95.6	A	GA	ALMA	88	—
678	Woodhaven Hall at Williamsburg Landing	3.7%	95.6	A	VA	WILLIAMSBURG	73	—
679	Rumford Community Home	3.7%	95.6	B	ME	RUMFORD	32	—
680	Corewell Health Rehabilitation & Nursing Center -	3.7%	95.6	B	MI	Dearborn	196	COREWELL HEALTH
681	LUTHERAN SOCIAL MINISTRIES CRANES MILL	3.7%	95.6	B	NJ	WEST CALDWELL	56	LUTHERAN SOCIAL MINISTRIES OF NEW JERSEY INC
682	STEVENS NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF HALLE	3.7%	95.5	C	TX	HALLETTSVILLE	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
683	st anne's retirement community	3.7%	95.5	A	PA	COLUMBIA	119	—
684	St Francis Manor	3.7%	95.5	B	IA	Grinnell	78	—
685	FAIRLAWN HAVEN	3.7%	95.5	A	OH	ARCHBOLD	99	—
686	BAPTIST HOMES, TRI-COUNTY	3.7%	95.5	A	MO	VANDALIA	90	THE BAPTIST HOME
687	OREGON VETERANS HOME	3.7%	95.5	A	OR	THE DALLES	151	WESTCARE MANAGEMENT INC
688	Mission Nursing Home	3.7%	95.5	B	MN	PLYMOUTH	70	—
689	PECONIC LANDING AT SOUTHOLD	3.7%	95.5	B	NY	GREENPORT	66	—
690	UPLAND HILLS NURSING AND REHAB	3.7%	95.5	A	WI	DODGEVILLE	44	—
691	THE NICOL HOME	3.7%	95.5	A	KS	GLASCO	32	—
692	JOSEPH L MORSE HEALTH CENTER INC THE	3.7%	95.5	B	FL	WEST PALM BEACH	230	—
693	TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT	3.7%	95.5	A	OH	SAINT MARYS	15	—
694	Holy Spirit Retirement Home	3.7%	95.5	B	IA	Sioux City	78	—
695	BENEFIS SENIOR SERVICES - GRANDVIEW	3.7%	95.5	A	MT	GREAT FALLS	48	BENEFIS HEALTH SYSTEM INC
696	ST LUKE'S NURSING AND REHABILITATION	3.7%	95.5	B	MO	CARTHAGE	95	—
697	MEDINA MEMORIAL HOSPITAL S N F	3.7%	95.5	A	NY	MEDINA	30	—
698	WILLIAMS CO HILLSIDE COUNTRY L	3.7%	95.5	A	OH	BRYAN	71	—
699	Heritage Manor	3.7%	95.5	B	MN	CHISHOLM	65	—
700	CHESHIRE COUNTY HOME	3.7%	95.5	A	NH	WESTMORELAND	150	—

Showing 651–700 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.