8044 COLEY DAVIS ROAD, NASHVILLE, TN 37221 · CCN 445496
Composite
21.3 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
113
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 21.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.46
3.28
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.68
0.34
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.15
3.10
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.58
3.36
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
96.2
3.46
0.68
0.78
2.00
3.15
0.0%
2025Q3
92
93.2
3.44
0.85
0.68
1.92
3.11
0.0%
2025Q2
91
98.6
3.24
0.76
0.69
1.80
2.92
0.0%
2025Q1
90
92.3
3.52
0.78
0.80
1.94
3.16
0.0%
2024Q4
92
92.9
3.40
0.72
0.80
1.88
3.08
0.0%
2024Q3
92
96.1
3.44
0.68
0.84
1.92
3.03
0.0%
2024Q2
91
97.8
3.41
0.67
0.81
1.93
3.03
8.2%
2024Q1
91
100.1
3.23
0.68
0.83
1.73
2.86
19.1%
2023Q4
92
100.5
3.16
0.64
0.78
1.75
2.77
15.9%
2023Q3
92
102.0
3.31
0.66
0.80
1.85
2.97
18.9%
2023Q2
91
101.4
3.31
0.69
0.89
1.74
2.81
8.1%
2023Q1
90
100.3
3.49
0.63
0.90
1.96
3.05
16.2%
2022Q4
92
100.1
3.69
0.53
1.08
2.08
3.27
21.5%
2022Q3
92
92.7
3.48
0.53
0.99
1.96
3.08
14.0%
2022Q2
91
89.8
3.63
0.62
0.95
2.06
3.20
25.6%
2022Q1
90
88.3
3.59
0.54
1.16
1.90
3.28
29.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
16
C × 1D × 12E × 1F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2022-09-21
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2022-11-04
2022-09-21
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2022-11-04
2022-09-21
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2022-11-04
2022-09-21
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-11-04
2022-09-21
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2022-11-04
2022-09-21
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2022-11-04
2022-09-21
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-11-04
2022-09-21
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2022-11-04
2022-09-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2022-11-04
2019-06-05
Health
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
C
2019-06-30
2019-06-05
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2019-06-30
2018-08-01
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2018-08-24
2018-08-01
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2018-08-24
2018-08-01
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2018-08-24
2018-08-01
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2018-08-24
2018-08-01
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
D
2018-08-24
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
45
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
LAKESHORE ESTATES, INC.
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2009-10-06
current
pecos_ownership
ACUFF, EMILY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ANDERSON, JAMES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-19
current
pecos_ownership
ANDERSON, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BROCK, WELDON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BROWN, MORGAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-22
current
pecos_ownership
COCHRAN, SARAH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
DODSON, VICKI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
GILMER, SCOTT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
HILBERS, ZACH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
HILBERS, ZACH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
JABLONSKI, JON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIDD, BRIAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAMBERT, DEBBIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
LLOYD, SUSAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
NHC/DELAWARE INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
OUTHIER, BARBARA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RAMPY, WYATT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROBINSON, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHELLY, TIMOTHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
TENNESSEE HEALTHCARE ADVISORS, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
TENNESSEE HEALTHCARE ADVISORS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
VINCENT, BRANDON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-19
current
pecos_ownership
ZUPA, RANDY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARBARA OUTHIER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRANDON VINCENT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN KIDD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBBIE LAMBERT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EMILY ACUFF
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES ANDERSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES ANDERSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-04-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN ROBINSON
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JON JABLONSKI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MORGAN BROWN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-01-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RANDY ZUPA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH COCHRAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SCOTT GILMER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2025-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN LLOYD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY SHELLY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICKI DODSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WELDON BROCK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WYATT RAMPY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZACH HILBERS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZACH HILBERS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 47037
acs median gross
0
$1,414
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47037
fmr
0
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47037
acs median gross
1
$1,421
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47037
fmr
1
$1,578
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47037
acs median gross
2
$1,562
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47037
fmr
2
$1,730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47037
acs median gross
3
$1,938
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47037
fmr
3
$2,211
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47037
acs median gross
4
$2,183
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47037
fmr
4
$2,696
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47037
acs median gross
5
$2,135
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47037
acs median gross
$1,582
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47037
acs recent mover gross
$1,787
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37221
acs median gross
0
$1,795
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37221
acs median gross
1
$1,644
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37221
acs median gross
2
$1,771
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37221
acs median gross
3
$2,184
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37221
acs median gross
4
$2,232
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37221
acs median gross
$1,844
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37221
acs recent mover gross
$1,756
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 37221
payment standard 110
0
$2,112
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37221
payment standard 90
0
$1,728
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37221
safmr
0
$1,920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37221
payment standard 110
1
$2,211
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37221
payment standard 90
1
$1,809
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37221
safmr
1
$2,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37221
payment standard 110
2
$2,420
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37221
payment standard 90
2
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37221
safmr
2
$2,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37221
payment standard 110
3
$3,091
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37221
payment standard 90
3
$2,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37221
safmr
3
$2,810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37221
payment standard 110
4
$3,773
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37221
payment standard 90
4
$3,087
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37221
safmr
4
$3,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.