Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

6,251–6,300

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6251	The Guest House Care Center	0.2%	59.2	C	LA	BATON ROUGE	104	PLANTATION MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC
6252	Good Samaritan - Waukon	0.2%	59.2	F	IA	Waukon	60	SANFORD
6253	SMOKY HILL REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	59.2	D	KS	SALINA	90	—
6254	OAKBROOK HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	59.2	A	WI	THORP	58	REAL PROPERTY HEALTH FACILITIES CORP
6255	BOCA CIRCLE REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	59.2	D	FL	BOCA RATON	120	—
6256	Savannah Heights	0.2%	59.2	B	IA	Mount Pleasant	50	ECSI INC
6257	AVALON CARE CENTER	0.2%	59.2	C	PA	NEW CASTLE	84	—
6258	GRAND PARK CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.2%	59.2	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	151	—
6259	Cedar Hill Health Care Center	0.2%	59.2	A	VT	Windsor	39	—
6260	Westfield Rehabilitation and Health Center	0.2%	59.2	D	MA	WESTFIELD	80	SUMMATION FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
6261	Summit Hills Skilled Nursing Facility	0.2%	59.2	A	SC	Spartanburg	27	—
6262	Parkridge Specialty Care	0.2%	59.2	D	IA	Pleasant Hill	90	CARE INITIATIVES
6263	Elizabethtown Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	59.2	C	KY	Elizabethtown	65	—
6264	AYDEN HEALTHCARE OF FAIRFIELD	0.2%	59.2	F	OH	FAIRFIELD	90	—
6265	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - HAYS	0.2%	59.2	A	KS	HAYS	45	SANFORD
6266	Whispering Oaks Rehab & Nursing	0.2%	59.2	C	TX	Cuero	0	HAMILTON COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
6267	CAPROCK NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.2%	59.2	B	TX	BORGER	0	LIBERTY COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
6268	FT LAUDERDALE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	59.2	A	FL	FORT LAUDERDALE	169	—
6269	Wellington Parc of Owensboro	0.2%	58.2	B	KY	Owensboro	80	—
6270	CLEAR VIEW CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.2%	58.2	A	CA	GARDENA	99	—
6271	WESTMORELAND PLACE	0.2%	58.2	C	OH	CHILLICOTHE	139	CARECORE HEALTH LLC
6272	NORTHRIDGE HEALTH CENTER, THE	0.2%	58.2	B	OH	NORTH RIDGEVILLE	96	—
6273	St Clare Manor Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.2%	58.2	B	LA	BATON ROUGE	184	M5 OPERATIONS LLC
6274	SIGNATURE HEALTHCARE OF ROCKWOOD REHAB & WELLNESS	0.2%	58.2	C	TN	ROCKWOOD	157	WHEATEN LLC
6275	COLUMBINE MANOR CARE CENTER	0.2%	58.2	C	CO	SALIDA	112	LIFE CARE CENTERS OF AMERICA INC
6276	Folsom Care Center	0.2%	58.2	A	CA	Folsom	99	—
6277	Avalon Nursing Home INC	0.2%	58.2	A	RI	Warwick	31	—
6278	Avir at Jeffrey Place	0.2%	58.2	B	TX	Waco	0	SLP OPERATIONS LLC
6279	REDWOOD GROVE POST ACUTE	0.2%	58.2	A	CA	SANTA CRUZ	144	—
6280	SPRINGS VALLEY MEADOWS	0.2%	58.2	A	IN	FRENCH LICK	74	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
6281	WINCHESTER TERRACE	0.2%	58.2	C	OH	MANSFIELD	83	LEVERING MANAGEMENT INC
6282	GUILFORD HOUSE, THE	0.2%	58.2	B	CT	GUILFORD	75	—
6283	GEM CITY HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	58.2	A	OH	DAYTON	87	MAD FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
6284	COURTYARD MANOR NURSE CARE CENTER & ASSISTED LIV	0.2%	58.2	A	LA	LAFAYETTE	92	—
6285	OPTIMA CARE CASTLE HILL	0.2%	58.2	F	NJ	UNION CITY	215	—
6286	Augusta Nursing and Rehabilitation	0.2%	58.2	C	VA	FISHERSVILLE	112	LAVIE HOLDCO LLC
6287	MIRABELLA AT ASU	0.2%	58.2	B	AZ	TEMPE	21	PACIFIC RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
6288	Southeast Nursing & Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	58.2	C	TX	San Antonio	0	MESQUITE HC SNF LLC
6289	BONNIE BRAE SKILLED NURSING	0.2%	58.2	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	59	—
6290	VERMILLION CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.2%	58.2	C	IN	CLINTON	100	WITHAM MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
6291	LEMAY AVENUE HEALTH AND REHAB LLC	0.2%	58.2	A	CO	FORT COLLINS	130	—
6292	WILLOW POINT REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.2%	58.2	C	KS	KANSAS CITY	45	MEDICALODGES INC
6293	ADDINGTON PLACE AT COLLEGE HARBOR	0.2%	58.2	B	FL	SAINT PETERSBURG	52	KR MANAGEMENT LLC
6294	ATRIUM POST ACUTE CARE OF WAYNEVIEW	0.2%	58.2	D	NJ	WAYNE	170	KBWB OPERATIONS ATRIUM
6295	The Blossoms at Nashville Rehab and Nursing Center	0.2%	58.2	D	AR	NASHVILLE	70	HEALTHCARE INVESTMENT HOLDINGS LLC
6296	TOWERS NURSING HOME	0.2%	58.2	C	TX	SMITHVILLE	0	REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
6297	CAMBRIDGE REHABILITATION & NURSING CENTER	0.2%	58.2	B	MA	CAMBRIDGE	83	ARB II HOLDINGS LLC
6298	ST FRANCES NSG & REHAB CENTER	0.2%	58.2	B	LA	OBERLIN	100	RIGHTCARE HEALTH SERVICES LLC
6299	HANCOCK MANOR NURSING HOME	0.2%	58.2	A	TN	SNEEDVILLE	50	TWIN RIVERS HEALTH & REHABILITATION LLC
6300	BRIA OF FOREST EDGE	0.2%	58.2	F	IL	CHICAGO	328	WHEAT CHAFF LP

Showing 6,251–6,300 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.