Reads as: riskier than 70.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
25
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.8 vs natl
REG BRIDGE OPCO LLC
20 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.1 vs natl
REGENCY TEXAS HOLDINGS LLC
65 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.1 vs natl
REG OPERATOR HOLDCO LLC
65 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.1 vs natl
DWD TX HOLDINGS LLC
65 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
REGENCY IHS CLINICAL CONSULTING LLC
67 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
REGENCY IHS REHAB LLC
68 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
CHUDLEIGH JAMES
8 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JACK AND NANCY DWYER WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT CENTER INC
65 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
CSV RHEA MANAGEMENT HOLDCO LLC
63 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
CLAPP BARBARA
66 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
REGENCY TEXAS HOLDINGS LLC
64 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
67 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
REG OPERATOR HOLDCO LLC
64 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MANDELBAUM ELLIOT
61 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
DWD TX HOLDINGS LLC
64 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
DEKOWSKI DONOVAN
66 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
CORTESE DAREN
59 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
BAIRD DANIEL
59 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
GIBSON PATRICIA
58 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
REG BRIDGE OPCO LLC
19 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
REG HG OPCO LLC
40 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
FULCHER ANN
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
BUNTE MARK
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
SMITHVILLE HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
57% fined
WILSON LINDA
7 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TX median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.03
2.67
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.12
0.24
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
1.99
2.56
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.05
2.72
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
110.8
2.03
0.12
0.63
1.29
1.99
0.0%
2025Q3
92
115.0
1.90
0.14
0.59
1.17
1.79
0.0%
2025Q2
91
114.7
2.06
0.07
0.68
1.30
2.00
0.0%
2025Q1
90
113.2
2.26
0.07
0.74
1.45
2.19
0.0%
2024Q4
92
119.0
2.05
0.08
0.69
1.28
1.92
0.0%
2024Q3
92
113.2
2.16
0.11
0.73
1.32
1.96
0.0%
2024Q2
91
114.7
2.27
0.15
0.65
1.47
2.06
0.0%
2024Q1
91
115.5
2.43
0.22
0.57
1.64
2.30
0.0%
2023Q4
92
115.9
2.26
0.20
0.50
1.56
2.14
0.0%
2023Q3
92
117.7
2.17
0.17
0.54
1.46
2.10
0.0%
2023Q2
91
117.2
2.21
0.17
0.62
1.43
2.11
0.0%
2023Q1
90
116.7
2.16
0.14
0.58
1.44
1.95
0.0%
2022Q4
92
116.3
2.17
0.13
0.60
1.45
2.01
0.0%
2022Q3
92
107.6
2.01
0.13
0.59
1.29
1.87
7.2%
2022Q2
91
109.0
1.64
0.15
0.62
0.88
1.44
0.1%
2022Q1
90
109.8
1.80
0.17
0.50
1.13
1.66
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2026-04-08
2026-04-01
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2026-04-08
2026-01-29
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2026-01-30
2025-07-31
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2025-08-01
2025-07-31
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-08-01
2025-07-31
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-08-01
2024-08-20
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
K
2024-08-09
2024-06-06
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-06-07
2024-06-06
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-06-07
2024-06-06
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-06-07
2024-06-06
Health
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2024-06-07
2024-06-06
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-06-07
2024-06-06
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-06-07
2024-06-06
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
E
2024-06-07
2023-08-03
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2023-08-04
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
43
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
SMITHVILLE HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2016-06-27
current
pecos_ownership
BAIRD, DANIEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-04-13
current
pecos_ownership
BUNTE, MARK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-10-27
current
pecos_ownership
CHUDLEIGH, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CLAPP, BARBARA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
CORTESE, DAREN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-08-10
current
pecos_ownership
CSV RHEA MANAGEMENT HOLDCO, LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-06-27
current
pecos_ownership
DEKOWSKI, DONOVAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-06-27
current
pecos_ownership
DWD TX HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-06-27
current
pecos_ownership
FULCHER, ANN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-01-22
current
pecos_ownership
GIBSON, PATRICIA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
GRAY, COLE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-17
current
pecos_ownership
JACK AND NANCY DWYER WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT CENTER INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-06-27
current
pecos_ownership
MANDELBAUM, ELLIOT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MIGL, GINA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
OGNOWSKI, DUSTIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
REG BRIDGE OPCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-06-27
current
pecos_ownership
REG HG OPCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-06-27
current
pecos_ownership
REG OPERATOR HOLDCO LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-06-27
current
pecos_ownership
REGENCY IHS CLINICAL CONSULTING, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-06-27
current
pecos_ownership
REGENCY IHS OF SMITHVILLE TOWERS LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-06-27
current
pecos_ownership
REGENCY IHS OF SMITHVILLE TOWERS LLC
—
—
2025-06-27
current
tx_hhsc_directory
REGENCY IHS OF SMITHVILLE TOWERS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-16
current
pecos_ownership
REGENCY IHS REHAB LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2016-06-27
current
pecos_ownership
REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-16
current
pecos_ownership
REGENCY INTEGRATED HEALTH SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-06-27
current
pecos_ownership
REGENCY TEXAS HOLDINGS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2016-06-27
current
pecos_ownership
SMITHVILLE HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-06-16
current
pecos_ownership
SMITHVILLE HOSPITAL AUTHORITY
—
—
2025-06-27
current
tx_hhsc_directory
WILSON, LINDA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-07-19
current
pecos_ownership
LINDA WILSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2023-07-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANN FULCHER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2015-01-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BARBARA CLAPP
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COLE GRAY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DANIEL BAIRD
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-04-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAREN CORTESE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-08-10
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONOVAN DEKOWSKI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-06-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DUSTIN OGNOWSKI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELLIOT MANDELBAUM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GINA MIGL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES CHUDLEIGH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK BUNTE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2020-10-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PATRICIA GIBSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 48021
acs median gross
0
$1,291
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48021
fmr
0
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48021
acs median gross
1
$1,203
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48021
fmr
1
$1,562
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48021
acs median gross
2
$1,347
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48021
fmr
2
$1,852
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48021
acs median gross
3
$1,585
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48021
fmr
3
$2,347
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48021
acs median gross
4
$1,979
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48021
fmr
4
$2,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 48021
acs median gross
$1,410
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 48021
acs recent mover gross
$1,770
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78957
acs median gross
1
$588
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78957
acs median gross
2
$1,358
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78957
acs median gross
3
$1,693
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78957
acs median gross
$1,383
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 78957
acs recent mover gross
$1,179
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 78957
payment standard 110
0
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78957
payment standard 90
0
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78957
safmr
0
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78957
payment standard 110
1
$1,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78957
payment standard 90
1
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78957
safmr
1
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78957
payment standard 110
2
$1,936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78957
payment standard 90
2
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78957
safmr
2
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78957
payment standard 110
3
$2,464
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78957
payment standard 90
3
$2,016
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78957
safmr
3
$2,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78957
payment standard 110
4
$2,860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78957
payment standard 90
4
$2,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 78957
safmr
4
$2,600
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.