Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

6,151–6,200

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
6151	THE SPRINGS OF EL DORADO	0.2%	59.2	A	AR	EL DORADO	122	EL DORADO HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
6152	STIGLER NURSING & REHAB	0.2%	59.2	C	OK	STIGLER	80	INTERHEALTH LLC
6153	THE BLOSSOMS AT PRESCOTT REHAB & NURSING CENTER	0.2%	59.2	C	AR	PRESCOTT	111	ZCS AR OPCO LLC
6154	AZRIA HEALTH GREAT BEND	0.2%	59.2	C	KS	GREAT BEND	85	AZRIA VENTURES LLC
6155	FAMILY OF CARING AT PARK RIDGE LLC	0.2%	59.2	F	NJ	PARK RIDGE	210	KBWB OPERATIONS ATRIUM
6156	HERITAGE PARK	0.2%	59.2	A	OK	BETHANY	55	EMPIRE CAPITAL INVESTMENT LLC
6157	Compass Healthcare and Rehab Rowan, LLC	0.2%	59.2	B	NC	Spencer	70	—
6158	SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WAR VETERANS HOME	0.2%	59.2	A	LA	RESERVE	8	STATE OF LA DEPT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
6159	DOVE HEALTHCARE - SUPERIOR	0.2%	59.2	B	WI	SUPERIOR	118	GOLDSTAR CAPITAL PARTNERS LLC
6160	EPIC REHABILITATION AND NURSING AT WHITE PLAINS	0.2%	59.2	C	NY	WHITE PLAINS	160	—
6161	The Oaks at Battle Creek	0.2%	59.2	B	MI	Battle Creek	77	AMERICAN HEALTHCARE REIT HOLDINGS LP
6162	MERIT HOUSE LLC	0.2%	59.2	B	OH	TOLEDO	99	—
6163	THE GRAND REHABILITATION AND NURSING AT MOHAWK	0.2%	59.2	C	NY	ILION	120	—
6164	Family of Caring Healthcare at Montclair	0.2%	59.2	B	NJ	MONTCLAIR	70	—
6165	Ponce Health and Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	59.2	A	FL	MIAMI	147	—
6166	Good Samaritan Society - Comforcare	0.2%	59.2	B	MN	AUSTIN	45	SANFORD
6167	ASPIRE SENIOR LIVING POPLAR BLUFF	0.2%	59.2	C	MO	POPLAR BLUFF	83	CHP SNFCO LLC
6168	GREEN ACRES CARE CENTER LLC	0.2%	59.2	A	GA	LAGRANGE	116	WELLSTAR HEALTH SYSTEM INC
6169	HARTWELL HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	59.2	B	GA	HARTWELL	92	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
6170	REGALCARE AT QUINCY	0.2%	59.2	C	MA	QUINCY	71	RC OPCO HOLDCO LLC
6171	AVIATA AT OAKFIELD	0.2%	59.2	F	FL	BRANDON	120	—
6172	BATH MANOR SPECIAL CARE CENTRE	0.2%	59.2	B	OH	AKRON	130	SABER HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
6173	Retreat at Wellmore of Daniel Island	0.2%	59.2	C	SC	Charleston	60	—
6174	APPLE REHAB COLCHESTER	0.2%	59.2	D	CT	COLCHESTER	60	—
6175	RIVERSIDE BEHAVIORAL HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	59.2	B	CA	RIVERSIDE	120	—
6176	OCEAN GARDENS CARE CENTER	0.2%	59.2	C	NY	ARVERNE	280	—
6177	Wilson Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	0.2%	59.2	D	NC	Wilson	90	LEGACY LIFEPOINT HEALTH LLC
6178	Achieve Rehabilitation and Nursing Center	0.2%	59.2	D	SC	Anderson	181	—
6179	Lake Orion Nursing Center	0.2%	59.2	D	MI	Lake Orion	120	MCLAREN HEALTH CARE CORPORATION
6180	Maquoketa Care Center	0.2%	59.2	A	IA	Maquoketa	46	STELLAR HEALTHCARE MGMT LLC
6181	Manly Specialty Care	0.2%	59.2	B	IA	Manly	44	CARE INITIATIVES
6182	MEADOWVIEW NURSING CENTER	0.2%	59.2	B	AL	PELL CITY	59	TRINTIY MANAGEMENT INC
6183	KEYSVILLE NURSING HOME & REHAB	0.2%	59.2	A	GA	BLYTHE	64	—
6184	MIDWEST CITY POST ACUTE & REHAB	0.2%	59.2	D	OK	MIDWEST CITY	106	A&M HEALTHCARE INVESTMENTS LLC
6185	THE SPRINGS MAGNOLIA	0.2%	59.2	C	AR	MAGNOLIA	140	WHITE RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC
6186	WINDSOR LANE HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.2%	59.2	A	OH	GIBSONBURG	89	—
6187	VICKSBURG CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.2%	59.2	A	MS	VICKSBURG	100	ORAND LP
6188	SPRING VALLEY HEALTH AND REHAB CENTER	0.2%	59.2	B	WI	SPRING VALLEY	40	—
6189	MEADOWBROOK MANOR	0.2%	59.2	F	OH	FOWLER	54	—
6190	CHRISTIAN HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	59.2	C	NJ	WYCKOFF	304	CHRISTIAN HEALTH CARE CENTER
6191	REST HAVEN NURSING HOME	0.2%	59.2	A	OH	MCDERMOTT	23	—
6192	Christian Heights Nursing and Rehabilitation Cente	0.2%	59.2	A	KY	Pembroke	60	—
6193	Regency Village	0.2%	59.2	C	TX	Webster	0	CHAMBERS COUNTY PUBLIC HOSPITAL DISTRICT NO 1
6194	MILACA ELIM MEADOWS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	59.2	A	MN	MILACA	70	CASSIA
6195	Harmony Park at Wilson	0.2%	59.2	B	NC	Wilson	110	AUGUSTNC HOLDCO LLC
6196	Pisgah Manor Health Care Center	0.2%	59.2	C	NC	Candler	118	LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT SERVICES LLC
6197	ALLIANCE HEALTH AT MAPLES	0.2%	59.2	A	MA	WRENTHAM	144	ALLIANCE HEALTH INC
6198	SCHERVIER NURSING CARE CENTER	0.2%	59.2	D	NY	BRONX	366	—
6199	CALIFORNIA PACIFIC MEDICAL CTR- DAVIES CAMPUS HOSP	0.2%	59.2	A	CA	SAN FRANCISCO	38	SUTTER HEALTH
6200	EDEN REHABILITATION NURSING CENTER	0.2%	59.2	A	NY	EDEN	40	—

Showing 6,151–6,200 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.