CALIFORNIA PACIFIC MEDICAL CTR- DAVIES CAMPUS HOSP
snfCA
601 DUBOCE AVE, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94117 · CCN 056245 · chain SUTTER HEALTH
Composite
16.0 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
38
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 16.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CA median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
8.23
3.95
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
5.79
0.38
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
8.06
3.79
3.11
—
Weekday total
8.29
4.01
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
22.9
8.23
5.79
0.00
2.44
8.06
0.7%
2025Q3
92
24.5
8.21
5.74
0.00
2.47
7.85
0.2%
2025Q2
91
25.9
5.37
3.66
0.00
1.71
4.94
1.3%
2025Q1
90
29.8
7.28
4.95
0.00
2.33
6.93
0.8%
2024Q4
92
28.9
7.81
5.23
0.00
2.58
7.30
0.0%
2024Q3
92
25.5
8.30
5.83
0.00
2.47
7.53
0.4%
2024Q2
91
26.1
7.47
5.14
0.00
2.33
7.20
0.0%
2024Q1
91
28.4
4.95
3.25
0.00
1.70
4.84
0.0%
2023Q4
92
23.4
8.60
5.46
0.00
3.14
8.48
0.7%
2023Q3
92
25.0
8.51
5.18
0.00
3.33
8.25
0.5%
2023Q2
91
26.0
7.97
4.82
0.00
3.15
7.56
0.5%
2023Q1
90
26.3
7.45
4.53
0.00
2.92
7.36
0.0%
2022Q4
92
24.2
8.10
4.74
0.00
3.36
7.65
0.0%
2022Q3
92
23.0
6.52
3.69
0.00
2.83
6.32
0.0%
2022Q2
91
22.7
8.41
5.22
0.00
3.19
7.86
0.0%
2022Q1
90
25.8
7.97
4.95
0.00
3.02
7.46
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
D × 10
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-09
Health
F0605
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
D
2026-02-09
2026-01-09
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2026-02-09
2026-01-09
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2026-02-09
2026-01-09
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2026-02-09
2023-04-28
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-05-25
2023-04-28
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2023-05-30
2023-04-28
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-05-23
2023-04-28
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2023-05-31
2023-04-28
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
D
2023-05-31
2023-04-28
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-05-23
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
50
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
SUTTER BAY HOSPITALS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2016-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
SUTTER HEALTH
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2009-07-31
current
pecos_ownership
BELL, DIANA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
current
pecos_ownership
BLACK, DAVID
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
current
pecos_ownership
CONFORTI, JAMES
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-03-12
current
pecos_ownership
DEIKEL, THEODORE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EISENHARDT, EMIL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-08-05
current
pecos_ownership
FLOWERS, ERIC
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
current
pecos_ownership
GATES, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GATES, JOHN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HALL, KAREN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-05-20
current
pecos_ownership
HILL, RICHARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
current
pecos_ownership
HSIAO, KATHERINE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KACHER COBB, JILL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KREVANS, SARAH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-06-21
current
pecos_ownership
LEVY, RICHARD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
current
pecos_ownership
O'CONNELL, DENNIS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
OLIVER, STEVEN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PADVAL, UMESH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PETRINI, JULIE
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RYAN, JOHN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
current
pecos_ownership
SINHA, RONESH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
current
pecos_ownership
TAYLOR, MARGARET
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
current
pecos_ownership
VARNER, JANE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
VILARDO, ELIZABETH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WAGNER, ANTHONY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
current
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY WAGNER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID BLACK
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DENNIS O'CONNELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIANA BELL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIZABETH VILARDO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EMIL EISENHARDT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2009-08-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIC FLOWERS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES CONFORTI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2012-03-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JANE VARNER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JILL KACHER COBB
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN GATES
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN GATES
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN RYAN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JULIE PETRINI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN HALL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2015-05-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHERINE HSIAO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2014-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARGARET TAYLOR
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD HILL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD LEVY
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONESH SINHA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2015-05-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARAH KREVANS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-06-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN OLIVER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THEODORE DEIKEL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
UMESH PADVAL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2019-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 06075
acs median gross
0
$1,574
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06075
fmr
0
$2,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06075
acs median gross
1
$2,455
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06075
fmr
1
$2,977
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06075
acs median gross
2
$3,124
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06075
fmr
2
$3,604
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06075
acs median gross
3
$3,469
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06075
fmr
3
$4,604
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06075
acs median gross
4
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06075
fmr
4
$4,772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 06075
acs median gross
5
$1,913
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06075
acs median gross
$2,476
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 06075
acs recent mover gross
$3,019
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94117
acs median gross
0
$2,013
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94117
acs median gross
1
$2,573
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94117
acs median gross
2
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94117
acs median gross
3
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94117
acs median gross
4
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94117
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94117
acs median gross
$2,881
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 94117
acs recent mover gross
$3,483
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 94117
payment standard 110
0
$2,893
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94117
payment standard 90
0
$2,367
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94117
safmr
0
$2,630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94117
payment standard 110
1
$3,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94117
payment standard 90
1
$2,844
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94117
safmr
1
$3,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94117
payment standard 110
2
$4,202
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94117
payment standard 90
2
$3,438
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94117
safmr
2
$3,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94117
payment standard 110
3
$5,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94117
payment standard 90
3
$4,392
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94117
safmr
3
$4,880
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94117
payment standard 110
4
$5,566
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94117
payment standard 90
4
$4,554
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 94117
safmr
4
$5,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.