Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

5,601–5,650

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
5601	MEADOWBROOK CARE CENTER	0.2%	63.3	A	NY	FREEPORT	280	—
5602	SOUTHWOOD AT NORWELL NURSING CTR	0.2%	63.3	A	MA	NORWELL	142	—
5603	SHELBYVILLE HEALTHCARE & SENIOR LIVING	0.2%	63.3	B	IL	SHELBYVILLE	80	STONEWALL HCG LLC
5604	Northern Mahaska Specialty Care	0.2%	63.3	C	IA	Oskaloosa	79	CARE INITIATIVES
5605	EMERALD CARE CENTER SOUTHWEST LLC	0.2%	63.3	D	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	112	LME FAMILY HOLDINGS LLC
5606	CAMDEN HEALTHCARE & REHAB CENTER	0.2%	63.3	D	TN	CAMDEN	120	B&Y TRUST
5607	RIVERVIEW NURSING CENTER	0.2%	63.3	B	MO	MOKANE	60	SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
5608	BELLEVUE HEALTH & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	63.3	C	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	142	—
5609	UNIVERSITY RETIREMENT COMMUNITY AT DAVIS	0.2%	63.3	A	CA	DAVIS	37	PACIFIC RETIREMENT SERVICES INC
5610	CITADEL OF STERLING,THE	0.2%	63.3	D	IL	STERLING	121	STERN FAMILY INVESTMENT TR
5611	TEAGUE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	63.3	B	TX	TEAGUE	0	SOUTH LIMESTONE HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5612	Allina Health Restorative Suites	0.2%	63.3	A	MN	PLYMOUTH	50	CASSIA
5613	THE SPRINGS OF GREERS FERRY	0.2%	63.3	B	AR	HEBER SPRINGS	140	BLACK RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC
5614	EVERGREEN POST ACUTE	0.2%	63.3	D	DE	SMYRNA	151	—
5615	PROMENADE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	63.3	A	AR	ROGERS	114	ROBERT V RYE LIV TR DTD 10042022
5616	EDGEWOOD REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER	0.2%	63.3	C	TX	MESQUITE	0	DALLAS COUNTY HOSPITAL DISTRICT
5617	REGAL HEIGHTS HEALTHCARE & REHAB CENTER	0.2%	63.3	A	DE	HOCKESSIN	172	—
5618	Deerfield Nursing and Rehabilitation Center	0.2%	63.3	C	LA	Delhi	103	—
5619	Kirkhaven	0.2%	63.3	B	NY	Rochester	147	—
5620	GREENBRIAR NURSING CENTER	0.2%	63.3	A	MS	DIBERVILLE	103	—
5621	FULTON MANOR CARE CENTER	0.2%	63.3	D	MO	FULTON	52	JUCKETTE MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
5622	MOUNT ST FRANCIS NURSING CENTER	0.2%	63.3	A	CO	COLORADO SPRINGS	110	COMMONSPIRIT HEALTH
5623	ROSEGATE VILLAGE	0.2%	63.3	A	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	150	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
5624	Courage Kenny Rehabilitation Institutes Trp	0.2%	63.3	A	MN	GOLDEN VALLEY	56	—
5625	CRESTMONT NORTH NURSING HOME	0.2%	63.3	A	OH	LAKEWOOD	71	BHP MANAGEMENT CORPORATION
5626	Williamsport Home, The	0.2%	63.3	A	PA	WILLIAMSPORT	129	AFFINITY HEALTH SERVICES
5627	Mountain View Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center	0.2%	63.3	B	KY	Pineville	115	PRINCIPLE LONG TERM CARE INC
5628	THE GARDENS REHAB & CARE CENTER	0.2%	63.3	A	AZ	KINGMAN	58	ERNEST L HARMAN MD ZIA WAY LLC
5629	HIGHLAND REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.2%	63.3	A	NY	MIDDLETOWN	98	—
5630	ST. FRANCIS NURSING HOME	0.2%	63.3	C	TX	SAN ANTONIO	107	—
5631	BERLIN NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	63.3	F	MD	BERLIN	165	HUNT VALLEY HOLDINGS LLC
5632	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - OLATHE	0.2%	63.3	C	KS	OLATHE	128	SANFORD
5633	GOODWILL HEALTH AND REHAB	0.2%	63.3	C	GA	MACON	172	—
5634	Citadel of Northbrook, The	0.2%	63.3	C	IL	NORTHBROOK	158	—
5635	THE HAMLET REHABILITATION AND HEALTHCARE CENTER AT	0.2%	63.3	C	NY	NESCONSET	240	—
5636	THE REDWOODS POST-ACUTE	0.2%	63.3	A	CA	SAN JOSE	152	—
5637	UNIVERSITY MANOR HEALTH & REHA	0.2%	63.3	B	OH	CLEVELAND	149	BNV DYNASTY LLC
5638	Nu Roc Health and Rehabilitation CTR	0.2%	63.3	B	WI	Laona	50	CHAMPION CARE LLC
5639	HERITAGE HOUSE NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	63.3	C	TX	ROSEBUD	0	HONOR X ENTERPRISES LLC
5640	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY SIOUX FALLS VILLAGE	0.2%	62.6	D	SD	SIOUX FALLS	177	SANFORD
5641	BELLWAY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	62.6	C	AL	SELMA	172	GNH IRRV TR
5642	FOCUSED CARE AT HUNTSVILLE	0.2%	62.6	B	TX	HUNTSVILLE	88	FOCUSED POST ACUTE CARE PARTNERS LLC
5643	HICKORY CREEK AT WINAMAC	0.2%	62.6	A	IN	WINAMAC	36	AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
5644	WATERS OF FORT WAYNE SKILLED NURSING FACILITY, THE	0.2%	62.6	B	IN	FORT WAYNE	77	JOHNSON MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5645	TREND HEALTH AND REHAB OF NATCHEZ, LLC	0.2%	62.6	B	MS	NATCHEZ	80	—
5646	Immanuel Campus Of Care	0.2%	62.6	B	AZ	PEORIA	228	—
5647	Sapphire Ridge Health and Rehabilitation	0.2%	62.6	C	NC	Brevard	147	PISGAH HOLDCO LLC
5648	WACHUSETT MANOR	0.2%	62.6	A	MA	GARDNER	96	—
5649	Goldwater Care Roseville	0.2%	62.6	C	IL	ROSEVILLE	99	YOSEF MEYSTEL DELTA TRUST
5650	VISTA DEL SOL CARE CENTER	0.2%	62.6	B	CA	LOS ANGELES	50	—

Showing 5,601–5,650 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.