Composite
13.9 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| staffing risk | 79.8 | 79.8 | 0.25 | 0.2500 | 19.95 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 25.2 | 16.8 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 7.56 | in index |
| chow risk | 23.7 | 22.9 | 0.15 | 0.1500 | 3.56 | in index |
| financial risk | 4.3 | 12.8 | 0.30 | 0.3000 | 1.29 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 20.8 | A | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 12.8 | A | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 2.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 16.8 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 79.8 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 78.1 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 58.1 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 25.2 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 17.1 | A | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 16.7 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 16.7 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 79.8 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 79.8 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Occupancy | 0.90 | -0.58 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.10 | -0.17 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.90 | -0.63 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.10 | +0.56 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 2.81 | +0.17 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.26 | -0.15 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | OH median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.81 | 3.24 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.19 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.77 | 3.11 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 2.82 | 3.29 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 63.7 | 2.81 | 0.19 | 0.87 | 1.75 | 2.77 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 62.4 | 2.75 | 0.17 | 0.91 | 1.67 | 2.59 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 63.3 | 2.78 | 0.16 | 0.91 | 1.71 | 2.70 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 59.4 | 2.73 | 0.01 | 0.89 | 1.83 | 2.63 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 57.1 | 3.06 | 0.23 | 0.90 | 1.94 | 2.92 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 59.7 | 2.87 | 0.25 | 0.86 | 1.76 | 2.71 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 60.0 | 2.84 | 0.25 | 0.78 | 1.81 | 2.73 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 60.0 | 2.85 | 0.22 | 0.83 | 1.80 | 2.77 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 62.8 | 2.65 | 0.20 | 0.78 | 1.68 | 2.46 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 63.7 | 2.37 | 0.19 | 0.73 | 1.45 | 2.32 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 62.5 | 2.34 | 0.29 | 0.68 | 1.38 | 2.14 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 61.3 | 2.61 | 0.27 | 0.87 | 1.46 | 2.56 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 61.5 | 2.50 | 0.41 | 0.65 | 1.44 | 2.38 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 56.6 | 2.32 | 0.44 | 0.65 | 1.22 | 2.14 | 2.8% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 58.4 | 2.11 | 0.40 | 0.73 | 0.98 | 1.74 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-29 | Health | F0569 | Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death. | E | 2025-07-04 |
| 2025-05-29 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2025-07-04 |
| 2025-05-29 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2025-07-04 |
| 2025-05-29 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-07-04 |
| 2025-05-29 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-07-04 |
| 2025-05-29 | Health | F0699 | Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent. | D | 2025-07-04 |
| 2025-05-29 | Health | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2025-07-04 |
| 2025-05-29 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-07-04 |
| 2024-11-27 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-27 | Health · complaint | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-27 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-12-31 |
| 2024-11-27 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2024-12-31 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0569 | Notify each resident of certain balances and convey resident funds upon discharge, eviction, or death. | D | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | C | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | D | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | E | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | E | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-10-14 |
| 2022-08-25 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | F | 2022-10-14 |
| 2019-08-29 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | E | 2019-09-29 |
| 2019-08-29 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2019-09-29 |
| 2019-08-29 | Health | F0640 | Encode each resident’s assessment data and transmit these data to the State within 7 days of assessment. | D | 2019-09-29 |
| 2019-08-29 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2019-09-29 |
| 2019-08-29 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2019-09-29 |
| 2019-08-29 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2019-09-29 |
| 2019-08-29 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | E | 2019-09-29 |
| 2019-08-29 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2019-09-29 |
| 2019-08-29 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2019-09-25 |
| 2019-08-29 | Health | F0804 | Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature. | F | 2019-09-29 |
| 2019-08-29 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2019-09-29 |
| 2019-08-29 | Health | F0926 | Have policies on smoking. | C | 2019-09-25 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COURY, ELIAS | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| CRESTMONT N HOLDINGS | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| CRESTMONT NORTH HOLDINGS | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| BHIMANI, JAYANTILAL | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2018-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BHP MANAGEMENT CORPORATION | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2016-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| COURY, ELIAS | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2000-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| COURY, ELIAS | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2000-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FOX, ALEXANDER | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2019-05-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FOX, NORMAN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2000-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FOX, NORMAN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2000-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TRANQUILITY COUNSELING SERVICES LLC | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-01-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CRESTMONT N HOLDINGS | Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider | 100% | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| ELIAS COURY | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ALEXANDER FOX | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2019-05-02 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ELIAS COURY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2000-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ELIAS COURY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2000-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JAYANTILAL BHIMANI | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2018-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NORMAN FOX | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2000-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| NORMAN FOX | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2000-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | SAPPHIRE REHABILITATION AND CARE CENTER | — | — | — | 113 | SAPPHIRE OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF POINT PLACE | — | — | — | 82 | POINT PLACE OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF NEW LEXINGTON | — | — | — | 82 | NEW LEXINGTON OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Atrium Nursing and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | ATRIUM OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | Inniswood Health and Rehabilitation | — | — | — | 99 | FHS INNISWOOD, INC. |
| 2024-12-31 | COMMUNITY SKILLED HEALTHCARE | — | — | — | 110 | CS OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF PERRYSBURG | — | — | — | 75 | PERRYSBURG OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | GRAFTON OAKS NURSING CENTER | — | — | — | 99 | GO OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | MAJESTIC CARE OF KENT | — | — | — | 74 | KENT OH HEALTH & REHAB OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-30 | Chardon Woods | — | — | — | 161 | CHARDON WOODS OF JOURNEY LLC |
| 2024-12-16 | The Pavilion at Canal Fulton for Nursing and Rehab | — | — | — | 60 | PAVILION AT CANAL FULTON LLC |
| 2024-12-02 | BENNINGTON GLEN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 79 | FHS BENNINGTON INC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 39035 | acs median gross | 0 | $792 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39035 | fmr | 0 | $933 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39035 | acs median gross | 1 | $859 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39035 | fmr | 1 | $1,058 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39035 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,106 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39035 | fmr | 2 | $1,279 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39035 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,290 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39035 | fmr | 3 | $1,646 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39035 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,442 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39035 | fmr | 4 | $1,760 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 39035 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,548 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 39035 | acs median gross | $1,060 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 39035 | acs recent mover gross | $1,218 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 44107 | acs median gross | 0 | $757 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44107 | acs median gross | 1 | $882 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44107 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,182 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44107 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,493 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44107 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,686 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44107 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,553 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 44107 | acs median gross | $1,070 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 44107 | acs recent mover gross | $1,223 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 44107 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $1,089 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44107 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $891 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44107 | safmr | 0 | $990 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44107 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $1,243 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44107 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,017 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44107 | safmr | 1 | $1,130 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44107 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,496 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44107 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $1,224 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44107 | safmr | 2 | $1,360 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44107 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,925 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44107 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,575 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44107 | safmr | 3 | $1,750 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44107 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $2,057 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44107 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,683 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 44107 | safmr | 4 | $1,870 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |